Has Duran gone mad? (APS)

[Anonymous]

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Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them.

Yes and no. The number of confirmed cases is higher than ever. However, if you look at hospitalizations and deaths as a proxy for disease prevalence we are nowhere close to spring numbers in Northern Virginia.

Statewide the hospitalization numbers peaked slightly over 1600 in the Spring. Today we have 2429 people in the hospital statewide. That is much much worse.
In Fairfax, the worse was the first week of May where we were adding 32 people to the hospital daily. This last week in Fairfax we've been adding an average of 11 people to the hospital a day- so that's somewhat better, than Spring, but significantly worse than beginning of Sept when it was about 4 a day.

Deaths are really a hard number to use for disease spread bc of the delay in reporting.

I fully support opening schools. Learning loss of super serious, masks and distancing work- and I think kids are safer in school. But we need to be honest about the level of community spread right now- its pretty awful.

Here's the hospitalizations by day for Northern Va from the VA DOH site - that's Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, and Loudoun. It's up from summer but not anywhere near spring. I don't think schools can open right now either, but it's not true to say there are more hospitalizations right now than spring locally.

Nobody said that. The truth is we won't know until the data is fully reported, as indicated by moving out of the gray shading on the chart.

DP. The trend is down. For weeks now.

That's disappointing, sorry. But it's true.

The hospitalization trend is down only for weeks in which all of the data has not been reported.

Cases are surging, which is a leading indicator of hospitalizations.

Try to keep up.

We are past the Thanksgiving peak. That's the opposite of surging.

The numbers are still going up DAILY

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them.

Yes and no. The number of confirmed cases is higher than ever. However, if you look at hospitalizations and deaths as a proxy for disease prevalence we are nowhere close to spring numbers in Northern Virginia.

Statewide the hospitalization numbers peaked slightly over 1600 in the Spring. Today we have 2429 people in the hospital statewide. That is much much worse.
In Fairfax, the worse was the first week of May where we were adding 32 people to the hospital daily. This last week in Fairfax we've been adding an average of 11 people to the hospital a day- so that's somewhat better, than Spring, but significantly worse than beginning of Sept when it was about 4 a day.

Deaths are really a hard number to use for disease spread bc of the delay in reporting.

I fully support opening schools. Learning loss of super serious, masks and distancing work- and I think kids are safer in school. But we need to be honest about the level of community spread right now- its pretty awful.

Here's the hospitalizations by day for Northern Va from the VA DOH site - that's Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, and Loudoun. It's up from summer but not anywhere near spring. I don't think schools can open right now either, but it's not true to say there are more hospitalizations right now than spring locally.

Nobody said that. The truth is we won't know until the data is fully reported, as indicated by moving out of the gray shading on the chart.

The very first quote on this chain is "Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them." I'm just saying the positive case numbers are higher than ever but the hospitalizations are nowhere near as high, so I don't think it's accurate to say this is the worst it's been locally.

High spread, which we have, is worse than low spread but high hospitalizations. Because when spread is high it’s uncontained and people get sick at large numbers that may not need hospitalization but do cripple other systems. Like.... school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them.

Yes and no. The number of confirmed cases is higher than ever. However, if you look at hospitalizations and deaths as a proxy for disease prevalence we are nowhere close to spring numbers in Northern Virginia.

Statewide the hospitalization numbers peaked slightly over 1600 in the Spring. Today we have 2429 people in the hospital statewide. That is much much worse.
In Fairfax, the worse was the first week of May where we were adding 32 people to the hospital daily. This last week in Fairfax we've been adding an average of 11 people to the hospital a day- so that's somewhat better, than Spring, but significantly worse than beginning of Sept when it was about 4 a day.

Deaths are really a hard number to use for disease spread bc of the delay in reporting.

I fully support opening schools. Learning loss of super serious, masks and distancing work- and I think kids are safer in school. But we need to be honest about the level of community spread right now- its pretty awful.

Here's the hospitalizations by day for Northern Va from the VA DOH site - that's Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, and Loudoun. It's up from summer but not anywhere near spring. I don't think schools can open right now either, but it's not true to say there are more hospitalizations right now than spring locally.

Nobody said that. The truth is we won't know until the data is fully reported, as indicated by moving out of the gray shading on the chart.

DP. The trend is down. For weeks now.

That's disappointing, sorry. But it's true.

The hospitalization trend is down only for weeks in which all of the data has not been reported.

Cases are surging, which is a leading indicator of hospitalizations.

Try to keep up.

We are past the Thanksgiving peak. That's the opposite of surging.

The peak is an artificiality of incomplete data. Stay tuned.

[Anonymous]

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The UVA models are terrible. They don't make any sense.

Based on what analysis?

Historically, they're always wrong. And this prediction doesn't make sense.

+1

This model has been predicting doom and gloom the whole time. It predicted a horrible end of summer.

Thanks for discrediting yourself. There is not one UVA model, there are many with different assumptions to show a range of possibilities for decision making.

[Anonymous]

I don't know if it is one person or multiple people saying there is incomplete data- but what is your basis for that statement? VDH asserts that it is publishing data daily. VHHA states it is a daily count of hospitalizations, reported daily from hospitals the night before. deaths are lagging bc they have to be investigated/ etc- but case counts and hospitalizations in Virginia are on a one day lag. What source do you have to suggest otherwise?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't know if it is one person or multiple people saying there is incomplete data- but what is your basis for that statement? VDH asserts that it is publishing data daily. VHHA states it is a daily count of hospitalizations, reported daily from hospitals the night before. deaths are lagging bc they have to be investigated/ etc- but case counts and hospitalizations in Virginia are on a one day lag. What source do you have to suggest otherwise?

Simple. If someone showed mild symptoms two weeks ago but did not need hospitalization until tomorrow they don't show up on the chart. When they are hospitalized tomorrow, they should appear within a few days. There are lags between infection, symptoms, hospitalization, and death. The gray shading over the incomplete data on the chart shows this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know if it is one person or multiple people saying there is incomplete data- but what is your basis for that statement? VDH asserts that it is publishing data daily. VHHA states it is a daily count of hospitalizations, reported daily from hospitals the night before. deaths are lagging bc they have to be investigated/ etc- but case counts and hospitalizations in Virginia are on a one day lag. What source do you have to suggest otherwise?

Simple. If someone showed mild symptoms two weeks ago but did not need hospitalization until tomorrow they don't show up on the chart. When they are hospitalized tomorrow, they should appear within a few days. There are lags between infection, symptoms, hospitalization, and death. The gray shading over the incomplete data on the chart shows this.

ah- I see what you are saying, I had understood your comment differently. You are assuming that there are more hospitalizations coming, based on high numbers of infections. You may well be right- although I would think we would be seeing it now. Infections have been pretty level for the last week- granted it still way to high a number, but we have stopped the exponential growth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just wait. The COVID deniers who want to Open Schools Now said in October that Nova wasn’t going to see increase in cases that the rest of the country was seeing because we were “wearing our masks.” Turns out that NoVa doesn’t have a special protection spell around it. We have now started to see our cases surging. The hospitalizations and deaths are 3 more weeks away. They will come.

Yeah but now they have a new argument - open up anyways despite high levels.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For real? Then why are they spending so much time on this. Is it a political thing? The APE parent who won’t shut up at our PTA meetings has kids in APS.

I have no idea. Yeah, some have kids in APS but a surprising number of them don't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just wait. The COVID deniers who want to Open Schools Now said in October that Nova wasn’t going to see increase in cases that the rest of the country was seeing because we were “wearing our masks.” Turns out that NoVa doesn’t have a special protection spell around it. We have now started to see our cases surging. The hospitalizations and deaths are 3 more weeks away. They will come.

Yeah but now they have a new argument - open up anyways despite high levels.

Yes, because now what's the point of keeping schools closed? Maybe it worked for a while, maybe it didn't. But now, keeping schools closed isn't helping and is only hurting students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For real? Then why are they spending so much time on this. Is it a political thing? The APE parent who won’t shut up at our PTA meetings has kids in APS.

Of course they want their kids back in APS rather than whatever random catholic school they have them in now.

There's no way they're going to pull them out of their Catholic/private in January IF APS actually opens. They will keep them in their private and see how the opening goes for the poor suckers still in public (us). If it's not safe, oh well, it wasn't their kids!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For real? Then why are they spending so much time on this. Is it a political thing? The APE parent who won’t shut up at our PTA meetings has kids in APS.

I have no idea. Yeah, some have kids in APS but a surprising number of them don't.

I am in that group

I can think of a handful of people who have their child in private this year

And I have noticed in recent weeks a trend in AEM with more people
supporting opening

If kids don’t get back now , the curriculum will be dumbed down in years to come in high farms rate elementary schools which will definitely fuel flight to private school

[Anonymous]

Elementary opening makes sense in Jan or Feb. at least early elementary. It’s insisting that all grade levels K-12 reopen that drives me nuts. Safety considerations are not the same.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For real? Then why are they spending so much time on this. Is it a political thing? The APE parent who won’t shut up at our PTA meetings has kids in APS.

I have no idea. Yeah, some have kids in APS but a surprising number of them don't.

I am in that group

I can think of a handful of people who have their child in private this year

And I have noticed in recent weeks a trend in AEM with more people
supporting opening

If kids don’t get back now , the curriculum will be dumbed down in years to come in high farms rate elementary schools which will definitely fuel flight to private school

Those kids aren’t coming back for hybrid, so stop using them for your own purposes.

[Anonymous]

It is true. As a group, EL and low income families chose DL at higher rates. This overlaps with the groups that are showing the greatest achievement gap at least based on the elementary and middle school data APS has shared so far. So, the focus is going to have to remain on effective distance learning even when hybrid eventually opens. Speciifically, the middle and high school teachers using this concurrent model will have to focus their efforts on the kids at home to get the achievement gap under control. This ain’t going away when school reopens in the Frankenstein concurrent model. . Hybrid instruction at middle and high will have to be tailored to the distance learners.