Reply to Has Duran gone mad? (APS)

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]

Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them. [/quote]

Yes and no. The number of confirmed cases is higher than ever. However, if you look at hospitalizations and deaths as a proxy for disease prevalence we are nowhere close to spring numbers in Northern Virginia. [/quote]

Statewide the hospitalization numbers peaked slightly over 1600 in the Spring.  Today we have 2429 people in the hospital statewide.  That is much much worse.
In Fairfax, the worse was the first week of May where we were adding 32 people to the hospital daily.     This last week in Fairfax we've been adding an average of 11 people to the hospital a day- so that's somewhat better, than Spring, but significantly worse than beginning of Sept when it was about 4 a day.

Deaths are really a hard number to use for disease spread bc of the delay in reporting.

I fully support opening schools.  Learning loss of super serious, masks and distancing work- and I think kids are safer in school.  But we need to be honest about the level of community spread right now- its pretty awful.   [/quote]

Here's the hospitalizations by day for Northern Va from the VA DOH site - that's Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, and Loudoun. It's up from summer but not anywhere near spring. I don't think schools can open right now either, but [b]it's not true to say there are more hospitalizations right now than spring locally.[/b] [/quote]

Nobody said that. The truth is we won't know until the data is fully reported, as indicated by moving out of the gray shading on the chart.[/quote]

DP.  The trend is down.  For weeks now.

That's disappointing, sorry.  But it's true.[/quote]

The hospitalization trend is down only for weeks in which all of the data has not been reported.

Cases are surging, which is a leading indicator of hospitalizations.

Try to keep up.[/quote]

We are past the Thanksgiving peak.  That's the opposite of surging.  [/quote]

The peak is an artificiality of incomplete data. Stay tuned.
[/quote]

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