Has Duran gone mad? (APS)

[Anonymous]

Just wait. The COVID deniers who want to Open Schools Now said in October that Nova wasn’t going to see increase in cases that the rest of the country was seeing because we were “wearing our masks.” Turns out that NoVa doesn’t have a special protection spell around it. We have now started to see our cases surging. The hospitalizations and deaths are 3 more weeks away. They will come.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them.

Yes and no. The number of confirmed cases is higher than ever. However, if you look at hospitalizations and deaths as a proxy for disease prevalence we are nowhere close to spring numbers in Northern Virginia.

Deaths are NOT a proxy for disease prevalence! Many people get this and don’t die but they suffer very ill effects for weeks and sometimes months. They have heart infections and lung damage. The number per 100k and PCR rate is what is an indicator of spread and they are bad.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them.

Yes and no. The number of confirmed cases is higher than ever. However, if you look at hospitalizations and deaths as a proxy for disease prevalence we are nowhere close to spring numbers in Northern Virginia.

Statewide the hospitalization numbers peaked slightly over 1600 in the Spring. Today we have 2429 people in the hospital statewide. That is much much worse.
In Fairfax, the worse was the first week of May where we were adding 32 people to the hospital daily. This last week in Fairfax we've been adding an average of 11 people to the hospital a day- so that's somewhat better, than Spring, but significantly worse than beginning of Sept when it was about 4 a day.

Deaths are really a hard number to use for disease spread bc of the delay in reporting.

I fully support opening schools. Learning loss of super serious, masks and distancing work- and I think kids are safer in school. But we need to be honest about the level of community spread right now- its pretty awful.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them.

Yes and no. The number of confirmed cases is higher than ever. However, if you look at hospitalizations and deaths as a proxy for disease prevalence we are nowhere close to spring numbers in Northern Virginia.

Statewide the hospitalization numbers peaked slightly over 1600 in the Spring. Today we have 2429 people in the hospital statewide. That is much much worse.
In Fairfax, the worse was the first week of May where we were adding 32 people to the hospital daily. This last week in Fairfax we've been adding an average of 11 people to the hospital a day- so that's somewhat better, than Spring, but significantly worse than beginning of Sept when it was about 4 a day.

Deaths are really a hard number to use for disease spread bc of the delay in reporting.

I fully support opening schools. Learning loss of super serious, masks and distancing work- and I think kids are safer in school. But we need to be honest about the level of community spread right now- its pretty awful.

Here's the hospitalizations by day for Northern Va from the VA DOH site - that's Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, and Loudoun. It's up from summer but not anywhere near spring. I don't think schools can open right now either, but it's not true to say there are more hospitalizations right now than spring locally.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

The UVA models are terrible. They don't make any sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them.

Yes and no. The number of confirmed cases is higher than ever. However, if you look at hospitalizations and deaths as a proxy for disease prevalence we are nowhere close to spring numbers in Northern Virginia.

Statewide the hospitalization numbers peaked slightly over 1600 in the Spring. Today we have 2429 people in the hospital statewide. That is much much worse.
In Fairfax, the worse was the first week of May where we were adding 32 people to the hospital daily. This last week in Fairfax we've been adding an average of 11 people to the hospital a day- so that's somewhat better, than Spring, but significantly worse than beginning of Sept when it was about 4 a day.

Deaths are really a hard number to use for disease spread bc of the delay in reporting.

I fully support opening schools. Learning loss of super serious, masks and distancing work- and I think kids are safer in school. But we need to be honest about the level of community spread right now- its pretty awful.

Here's the hospitalizations by day for Northern Va from the VA DOH site - that's Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, and Loudoun. It's up from summer but not anywhere near spring. I don't think schools can open right now either, but it's not true to say there are more hospitalizations right now than spring locally.

Nobody said that. The truth is we won't know until the data is fully reported, as indicated by moving out of the gray shading on the chart.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The UVA models are terrible. They don't make any sense.

Based on what analysis?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them.

Yes and no. The number of confirmed cases is higher than ever. However, if you look at hospitalizations and deaths as a proxy for disease prevalence we are nowhere close to spring numbers in Northern Virginia.

Statewide the hospitalization numbers peaked slightly over 1600 in the Spring. Today we have 2429 people in the hospital statewide. That is much much worse.
In Fairfax, the worse was the first week of May where we were adding 32 people to the hospital daily. This last week in Fairfax we've been adding an average of 11 people to the hospital a day- so that's somewhat better, than Spring, but significantly worse than beginning of Sept when it was about 4 a day.

Deaths are really a hard number to use for disease spread bc of the delay in reporting.

I fully support opening schools. Learning loss of super serious, masks and distancing work- and I think kids are safer in school. But we need to be honest about the level of community spread right now- its pretty awful.

Here's the hospitalizations by day for Northern Va from the VA DOH site - that's Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, and Loudoun. It's up from summer but not anywhere near spring. I don't think schools can open right now either, but it's not true to say there are more hospitalizations right now than spring locally.

Nobody said that. The truth is we won't know until the data is fully reported, as indicated by moving out of the gray shading on the chart.

DP. The trend is down. For weeks now.

That's disappointing, sorry. But it's true.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The UVA models are terrible. They don't make any sense.

Based on what analysis?

Historically, they're always wrong. And this prediction doesn't make sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them.

Yes and no. The number of confirmed cases is higher than ever. However, if you look at hospitalizations and deaths as a proxy for disease prevalence we are nowhere close to spring numbers in Northern Virginia.

Statewide the hospitalization numbers peaked slightly over 1600 in the Spring. Today we have 2429 people in the hospital statewide. That is much much worse.
In Fairfax, the worse was the first week of May where we were adding 32 people to the hospital daily. This last week in Fairfax we've been adding an average of 11 people to the hospital a day- so that's somewhat better, than Spring, but significantly worse than beginning of Sept when it was about 4 a day.

Deaths are really a hard number to use for disease spread bc of the delay in reporting.

I fully support opening schools. Learning loss of super serious, masks and distancing work- and I think kids are safer in school. But we need to be honest about the level of community spread right now- its pretty awful.

Here's the hospitalizations by day for Northern Va from the VA DOH site - that's Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, and Loudoun. It's up from summer but not anywhere near spring. I don't think schools can open right now either, but it's not true to say there are more hospitalizations right now than spring locally.

Nobody said that. The truth is we won't know until the data is fully reported, as indicated by moving out of the gray shading on the chart.

The very first quote on this chain is "Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them." I'm just saying the positive case numbers are higher than ever but the hospitalizations are nowhere near as high, so I don't think it's accurate to say this is the worst it's been locally.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them.

Yes and no. The number of confirmed cases is higher than ever. However, if you look at hospitalizations and deaths as a proxy for disease prevalence we are nowhere close to spring numbers in Northern Virginia.

Statewide the hospitalization numbers peaked slightly over 1600 in the Spring. Today we have 2429 people in the hospital statewide. That is much much worse.
In Fairfax, the worse was the first week of May where we were adding 32 people to the hospital daily. This last week in Fairfax we've been adding an average of 11 people to the hospital a day- so that's somewhat better, than Spring, but significantly worse than beginning of Sept when it was about 4 a day.

Deaths are really a hard number to use for disease spread bc of the delay in reporting.

I fully support opening schools. Learning loss of super serious, masks and distancing work- and I think kids are safer in school. But we need to be honest about the level of community spread right now- its pretty awful.

Here's the hospitalizations by day for Northern Va from the VA DOH site - that's Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, and Loudoun. It's up from summer but not anywhere near spring. I don't think schools can open right now either, but it's not true to say there are more hospitalizations right now than spring locally.

Nobody said that. The truth is we won't know until the data is fully reported, as indicated by moving out of the gray shading on the chart.

DP. The trend is down. For weeks now.

That's disappointing, sorry. But it's true.

The hospitalization trend is down only for weeks in which all of the data has not been reported.

Cases are surging, which is a leading indicator of hospitalizations.

Try to keep up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Our current numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. It’s horrible. Everyone should be upset by them.

Yes and no. The number of confirmed cases is higher than ever. However, if you look at hospitalizations and deaths as a proxy for disease prevalence we are nowhere close to spring numbers in Northern Virginia.

Statewide the hospitalization numbers peaked slightly over 1600 in the Spring. Today we have 2429 people in the hospital statewide. That is much much worse.
In Fairfax, the worse was the first week of May where we were adding 32 people to the hospital daily. This last week in Fairfax we've been adding an average of 11 people to the hospital a day- so that's somewhat better, than Spring, but significantly worse than beginning of Sept when it was about 4 a day.

Deaths are really a hard number to use for disease spread bc of the delay in reporting.

I fully support opening schools. Learning loss of super serious, masks and distancing work- and I think kids are safer in school. But we need to be honest about the level of community spread right now- its pretty awful.

Here's the hospitalizations by day for Northern Va from the VA DOH site - that's Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, and Loudoun. It's up from summer but not anywhere near spring. I don't think schools can open right now either, but it's not true to say there are more hospitalizations right now than spring locally.

Nobody said that. The truth is we won't know until the data is fully reported, as indicated by moving out of the gray shading on the chart.

DP. The trend is down. For weeks now.

That's disappointing, sorry. But it's true.

The hospitalization trend is down only for weeks in which all of the data has not been reported.

Cases are surging, which is a leading indicator of hospitalizations.

Try to keep up.

We are past the Thanksgiving peak. That's the opposite of surging.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The UVA models are terrible. They don't make any sense.

Based on what analysis?

Historically, they're always wrong. And this prediction doesn't make sense.

+1

This model has been predicting doom and gloom the whole time. It predicted a horrible end of summer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The UVA models are terrible. They don't make any sense.

Yes they do. You just don’t like what they tell you.