Fierce competition for Fall 2021 admissions, if lots of current seniors defer?

[Anonymous]

I think posters are talking about elite schools when they say it will be more difficult for this year’s juniors. That seems right. HYPS will probably let regular admits defer, reach in to the WL to fill the class and maintain tuition revenue with the caveat that those kids can’t defer, the WL kids will say yes since this is their guarantee into the elite school, and then this year’s junior class will have to deal with less slots open for the next year. How far down the selective college ladder that process will trickle down is hard to know. But I’m surprised we don’t yet have concrete evidence on this. The schools must be responding to kids’ deferment requests. I can’t find good evidence in news stories or the internet, but some people in the senior class must know the answer to this.

[Anonymous]

^Hoping we know more in the next couple of weeks. At the very least, I'm hoping the high school counselor can shed some light on the numbers of deferments, though I'm not sure how much they'll know.

[Anonymous]

I think there is a lot of speculation here and a lot of premature panic. I've said this on another thread, but I don't think there will be a massive amount of deferrals, especially at the selective schools. PPs are correct in that the class of 2020 does have some benefits right now. My senior just got into the absolute dream, big stretch of a school, that we thought DC had a snowball's chance in hell of getting into. So, chalk one up for the class of 2020 - waitlists are moving and lots of kids are getting into reach schools right now. But I think that is NOT a function of 2020s deferring, but rather international students not coming, and families choosing cheaper schools. We are full-pay, OOS at the school DC just got into. International students will NOT be able to come to campus this year (especially new admits) because the consulates are closed and no visas are being issued. Some campuses are not allowing them to be on campus, at least first semester. Schools need to make up for that loss of tuition by admitting OOS kids (selective publics) and full-pay families (publics and privates).

Juniors - I think it's still a big question mark. I wouldn't stress about losing out on the spring season of sports (for recruiting purposes), or fewer ACT/SAT dates. That is going to affect every single Junior in the country, so universities will figure out a way to do admissions under those circumstances. Perhaps more deferrals will make for less spots for class of 2021. But I don't know anyone in my DC's class, or very wide circle of friends in the DMV who are deferring. Nobody wants to sit around for another year doing nothing. They are already not happy about sitting around all summer without jobs and travel. They are all anxious to start college, however that will look.

I have a close friend who teaches at Stanford. She told me they have several plans in place right now, and one of them is to delay the first semester to start in January. There are just so many options and different ideas out there and nobody knows what's going to happen.

BUT - we can all agree that it is okay for Juniors and Seniors alike to be sad about missing spring sports, theater productions, concerts, prom, other festivities, and graduation. They wait a long time to be Juniors and Seniors and they can mourn the loss of those milestones. Together.

Good luck to all of our kids - let's love and support them all!

[Anonymous]

^The big internationals not coming fall 2020, are they deferring to fall 2021? Or planning to reapply next fall? Both would be trouble for juniors, though perhaps colleges have a little easier time saying no to internationals. Or are the 2020 internationals simply not planning to attend college in the US, period?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Save your money folks. With more deferments than usual and no international students to fill the coffers, full pay is going to be more and more important.

This.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That's why student who want to defer should not be allowed to do so. They should have to reapply next year.

Yes because they haven't been screwed over enough this year.

Other than missing graduation (which is boring AF anyway), how have they been more "screwed over" than the class of 2021? I would argue the juniors have it even worse. Many fewer times for testing. Missing out on the most important semester for grades into their transript--and now the 2020 class taking away possibly up to 20% of possible spots for top colleges next year.

I have three teenagers. One in college, one senior, and one sophomore. By far the worst hit is the senior, no comparison. They miss everything related to the end of school, including saying goodbye to their friends. Yes, my Sophomore missed her spring sport which she was trying to be recruited and has to take two on-line AP Exams. It is not a win for anyone but the enormity of disappointment is overwhelming for my senior. If she loses her summer job that will be a huge hit. Her college has not announced that what they will do in Fall BUT they did tell her that if it is on-line, she will be able to defer. That is not normally an option. I feel bad for the next two years of students applying to colleges, especially the juniors because unfortunately I do think they will be the toughest admissions class in quite a long time. So that sucks for them, but there are still plenty of options. They will probably have a more mature outlook on life in the whole process because they have now lived through "anything can happen". However, no class has it worse than the senior class of 2020. I am sad for them and all teenagers but we will get through it.

Nope. The 2020 class can have some sentimentality over it, but the 2021 class is completely screwed by all the 2020 Mommies who are too scared to sent their kids and too weak to just say to them: It's not what you planned, tough luck. Imagine fi you did that, then your senior could have "a more mature outlook on life..." just like you expect from the 2021s. This thread makes me so upset, because it never occurred to me that the class of 2020 is going to so completely screw my junior. What a mess.

+1

Class of 2020 moms can sit down and shut up. Their child got into college. I don't want to hear how important mom thinks it is for their kid to walk across the stage. Your kid doesn't care half as much as you!

For those of you who think they can make "multiple deposits" or whatever. That is not how it works. Nice try.

BS, my kid and every other kid cares about the end of the year celebrations as seniors. What the juniors don't care about is mommy wanted them to go to an Ivy and now they are pouting that they are afraid they are robbed of the chance. Yea right, Boohoo, they cannot do some campus visits, you are comparing that to graduation? It's the junior parents that are projecting -- guess what, your kid didn't want to take SATs 4 times to finally break 1400. Super scores will be lower, less pressure on juniors. Nothing like what has been taken away from the seniors.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:^The big internationals not coming fall 2020, are they deferring to fall 2021? Or planning to reapply next fall? Both would be trouble for juniors, though perhaps colleges have a little easier time saying no to internationals. Or are the 2020 internationals simply not planning to attend college in the US, period?

They're going to stay home and go to college in their home countries. DH is from Asia and we have relatives in this situation. Parents won't let them come to the US even if they could. Sure a very small sample, but I don't think these students will sit around for a year waiting. These are very high-achieving kids. They'll either do their first year on-line, or stay home for undergrad. They can always come to the US for grad school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There will also be a drop in international students and overall numbers attending college. Finances will play a role. But there’s no way to know how it will all play out for current juniors.

All the chinese who missed out 2020 will be back in full force in 2021 along with their 2021 cohort further complicating the situation for the class of 2021. Need to stop/drastically reduce international recruitment for 5 years..

Hopefully we will stop educating the Chinese.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not sure how this factors in but for next year there would presumably be fewer international students. Also, colleges generally have a certain portion of students studying abroad each semester. If those abroad trips are cancelled (likely at least for fall) those kids will need beds on campus. So there may be more students on campus at least for fall.

Not necessarily beds on campus as most planning to study abroad are juniors and seniors who most likely live off campus. Colleges will need more seats in classrooms in classes that historically are small.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think there is a lot of speculation here and a lot of premature panic. I've said this on another thread, but I don't think there will be a massive amount of deferrals, especially at the selective schools. PPs are correct in that the class of 2020 does have some benefits right now. My senior just got into the absolute dream, big stretch of a school, that we thought DC had a snowball's chance in hell of getting into. So, chalk one up for the class of 2020 - waitlists are moving and lots of kids are getting into reach schools right now. But I think that is NOT a function of 2020s deferring, but rather international students not coming, and families choosing cheaper schools. We are full-pay, OOS at the school DC just got into. International students will NOT be able to come to campus this year (especially new admits) because the consulates are closed and no visas are being issued. Some campuses are not allowing them to be on campus, at least first semester. Schools need to make up for that loss of tuition by admitting OOS kids (selective publics) and full-pay families (publics and privates).

Juniors - I think it's still a big question mark. I wouldn't stress about losing out on the spring season of sports (for recruiting purposes), or fewer ACT/SAT dates. That is going to affect every single Junior in the country, so universities will figure out a way to do admissions under those circumstances. Perhaps more deferrals will make for less spots for class of 2021. But I don't know anyone in my DC's class, or very wide circle of friends in the DMV who are deferring. Nobody wants to sit around for another year doing nothing. They are already not happy about sitting around all summer without jobs and travel. They are all anxious to start college, however that will look.

I have a close friend who teaches at Stanford. She told me they have several plans in place right now, and one of them is to delay the first semester to start in January. There are just so many options and different ideas out there and nobody knows what's going to happen.

BUT - we can all agree that it is okay for Juniors and Seniors alike to be sad about missing spring sports, theater productions, concerts, prom, other festivities, and graduation. They wait a long time to be Juniors and Seniors and they can mourn the loss of those milestones. Together.

Good luck to all of our kids - let's love and support them all!

Congratulations to your DC! And thank you for your dose of sanity.
--Mom of a junior and a sophomore who lost a serious recruiting season trying to go with the flow

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think there is a lot of speculation here and a lot of premature panic. I've said this on another thread, but I don't think there will be a massive amount of deferrals, especially at the selective schools. PPs are correct in that the class of 2020 does have some benefits right now. My senior just got into the absolute dream, big stretch of a school, that we thought DC had a snowball's chance in hell of getting into. So, chalk one up for the class of 2020 - waitlists are moving and lots of kids are getting into reach schools right now. But I think that is NOT a function of 2020s deferring, but rather international students not coming, and families choosing cheaper schools. We are full-pay, OOS at the school DC just got into. International students will NOT be able to come to campus this year (especially new admits) because the consulates are closed and no visas are being issued. Some campuses are not allowing them to be on campus, at least first semester. Schools need to make up for that loss of tuition by admitting OOS kids (selective publics) and full-pay families (publics and privates).

Juniors - I think it's still a big question mark. I wouldn't stress about losing out on the spring season of sports (for recruiting purposes), or fewer ACT/SAT dates. That is going to affect every single Junior in the country, so universities will figure out a way to do admissions under those circumstances. Perhaps more deferrals will make for less spots for class of 2021. But I don't know anyone in my DC's class, or very wide circle of friends in the DMV who are deferring. Nobody wants to sit around for another year doing nothing. They are already not happy about sitting around all summer without jobs and travel. They are all anxious to start college, however that will look.

I have a close friend who teaches at Stanford. She told me they have several plans in place right now, and one of them is to delay the first semester to start in January. There are just so many options and different ideas out there and nobody knows what's going to happen.

BUT - we can all agree that it is okay for Juniors and Seniors alike to be sad about missing spring sports, theater productions, concerts, prom, other festivities, and graduation. They wait a long time to be Juniors and Seniors and they can mourn the loss of those milestones. Together.

Good luck to all of our kids - let's love and support them all!

Congratulations to your DC! And thank you for your dose of sanity.
--Mom of a junior and a sophomore who lost a serious recruiting season trying to go with the flow

Congrats to your kid, but if it's a state school so unlikely it is a highly selective school (top 25). The speculation on DCUM seems to be about kids getting into the top 25 that were waitlisted. I just don't see a lot of movement within the top 25. Families were either given aid, or they have the savings to pay. Say that a school is 10% international, at the top schools that is like 150-200 spots. Let's be honest, at least half of those are going to find a way to come into the US or are already here (boarding school etc). So we are talking about an extra 75-100 spots -- some of which may be able to keep their spots by being online only (PENN is offering this, and I'm sure others are as well).

Where there will likely be space are kids that were going to go to maybe UVA full-pay from Wisconsin or Washington, and now will go to their state schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I assume that, if lots of seniors defer and hold places for next year, there will be fewer slots for next year's applicants. Right?

Once again, for the people in the cheap seats: If you know anything about college admissions, you know that there are only so many spaces that are allowed to defer. Do you people seriously think that if most of the class, or even a large percentage (which in a college, is fewer people than you think) want to defer, the college just says "sure why not?" No, it doesn't work that way.

There are wait lists that the college can and will tap into, which means that after so many on the deferred list (a small handful) the wait list gets tapped, and you and your snowflake lose your spot. A college is a business, and it is not in the business of charity for students' whose parents are easily offended or overly controlling.

There are also so many transfers allowed (again, a small number). So if you think you are going to get away cheap, then transfer to your first choice as you please, guess again. Colleges are a numbers games, essentially.

I thought people here were supposed to be smart or at least informed?

[Anonymous]

"I have a close friend who teaches at Stanford. She told me they have several plans in place right now, and one of them is to delay the first semester to start in January. There are just so many options and different ideas out there and nobody knows what's going to happen."

I have news for you: there are actually about two to four people on each and very campus who know what plans are in place, and they aren't talking yet, because NO ONE (not even your friend who teaches at Stanford) knows WTH is going to happen, come September. The COVID numbers could go up or down.

Colleges may have a few plans in place, but for now, they are all speculation. Let's face it, parents are going to worry about being online in the fall ("is my kid getting a good education....blah, blah, blah...") and they are also going to worry about being on campus ("is my kid going to get sick? Are they opening too soon? How are they protecting my kid? Blah, blah, blah....")

Colleges can't win, really. So no - colleges are not telling anyone anything yet, because (wait for it) they don't know. No on does, and colleges are not stupid enough to guess or divulge information they have no control of.

You think you have control issues? That ain't nothing, compared to colleges. They are not releasing bad information, rightly so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think there is a lot of speculation here and a lot of premature panic. I've said this on another thread, but I don't think there will be a massive amount of deferrals, especially at the selective schools. PPs are correct in that the class of 2020 does have some benefits right now. My senior just got into the absolute dream, big stretch of a school, that we thought DC had a snowball's chance in hell of getting into. So, chalk one up for the class of 2020 - waitlists are moving and lots of kids are getting into reach schools right now. But I think that is NOT a function of 2020s deferring, but rather international students not coming, and families choosing cheaper schools. We are full-pay, OOS at the school DC just got into. International students will NOT be able to come to campus this year (especially new admits) because the consulates are closed and no visas are being issued. Some campuses are not allowing them to be on campus, at least first semester. Schools need to make up for that loss of tuition by admitting OOS kids (selective publics) and full-pay families (publics and privates).

Juniors - I think it's still a big question mark. I wouldn't stress about losing out on the spring season of sports (for recruiting purposes), or fewer ACT/SAT dates. That is going to affect every single Junior in the country, so universities will figure out a way to do admissions under those circumstances. Perhaps more deferrals will make for less spots for class of 2021. But I don't know anyone in my DC's class, or very wide circle of friends in the DMV who are deferring. Nobody wants to sit around for another year doing nothing. They are already not happy about sitting around all summer without jobs and travel. They are all anxious to start college, however that will look.

I have a close friend who teaches at Stanford. She told me they have several plans in place right now, and one of them is to delay the first semester to start in January. There are just so many options and different ideas out there and nobody knows what's going to happen.

BUT - we can all agree that it is okay for Juniors and Seniors alike to be sad about missing spring sports, theater productions, concerts, prom, other festivities, and graduation. They wait a long time to be Juniors and Seniors and they can mourn the loss of those milestones. Together.

Good luck to all of our kids - let's love and support them all!

Congratulations to your DC! And thank you for your dose of sanity.
--Mom of a junior and a sophomore who lost a serious recruiting season trying to go with the flow

Congrats to your kid, but if it's a state school so unlikely it is a highly selective school (top 25). The speculation on DCUM seems to be about kids getting into the top 25 that were waitlisted. I just don't see a lot of movement within the top 25. Families were either given aid, or they have the savings to pay. Say that a school is 10% international, at the top schools that is like 150-200 spots. Let's be honest, at least half of those are going to find a way to come into the US or are already here (boarding school etc). So we are talking about an extra 75-100 spots -- some of which may be able to keep their spots by being online only (PENN is offering this, and I'm sure others are as well).

Where there will likely be space are kids that were going to go to maybe UVA full-pay from Wisconsin or Washington, and now will go to their state schools.

Thanks for the congratulations - and yes, it's a state school, but it's also a selective top 25. Think Berkeley, Michigan, or UCLA. And we do know many seniors who have recently got admission off waitlists at top 25 schools: 3 at Chicago, 3 at UCLA, 2 at Wash U, and 3 at Michigan. A couple at Barnard too - but I don't know where that falls in rankings.
I'm forgetting a few. DC keeps me informed when friends get off WLs.

[Anonymous]

The state schools have much bigger freshmen classes, like 6K, so there is always more movement on those lists than the privates - it's a numbers game.

U of Chicago is notorious for limiting initial admits and then letting people off the WL early. Wash U's strategy and full-pay only has been discussed multiple times on here over the past few weeks, so isn't worth going into again.

So no new information by the PP.