Data-driven lottery predictions!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My expectations are VERY low but curious anyways. No sibling preference, 6th grade, pretty sure we'd make the move after the year starts.

Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Deal (OOB)

To clarify: the low expectations are for our chances to get in anywhere, not related to the Lottery Nerd's abilities to predict.

FYI went to a Deal open house a few weeks ago and there will be no lottery spots.

Every year I hear Deal is full to the rafters and then I meet another kid in our OOB neighborhood who got in (after NOT going to a feeder). Figured it was worth a shot, but yes, expectations are very low.

There are also families every year who say they’ve gotten into desirable schools, such as Deal, through the lottery, but they’re actually bending or breaking residency requirements. Just important to keep in mind when it feels like there are abundant examples of OOB kids at a school that historically offers few or no spots.

I wouldn't want to assume that's true of everyone (see the examples above re: IEP services) but absolutely a good point. thx!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You’re incredible. Id love some odds.

PK4

School Within School
Inspired Teaching
Lee Montessori
Seaton (not inbounds)

Thank you!

OP here. Assuming you'd switch schools in October:

School Within School - 7%
Inspired Teaching - 7%
Lee Montessori - 23%
Seaton (not inbounds) - 52%
Nothing - 11%

That's based on historical data, but I happen to know that Seaton is in a swing space next year. Generally, schools have more seats when they're in swing spaces, so I'd be surprised if you didn't get into Seaton.

Would you be willing to give numbers if we were NOT willing to move in Oct?

[Anonymous]

5th grade
Latin 2nd St
Latin Cooper
Inspired Teaching
Equitable Access

[Anonymous]

1. Hyde Addison OOB (already know this is 0!)
2. Military Road
3. Apple Tree
4. Dorothy Height

[Anonymous]

PK3
1. Yu Ying
2. DC Bilingual
3. LAMB
4. Stokes Spanish
5. MV8
6. MVP
7. Stokes French

[Anonymous]

Forgot to mention this is for pre-k 3! We’d possibly move after school starts. No sibling preference and we live in ward 3.


1. Hyde Addison OOB (already know this is 0!)
2. Military Road
3. Apple Tree
4. Dorothy Height

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What about 8th grade chances, with a sibling at Latin Cooper, otherwise no preferences:
Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Eliot Hine
Stuart Hobson
Jefferson

Why didnt this child enroll earlier if they have a sibling? This makes zero sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My expectations are VERY low but curious anyways. No sibling preference, 6th grade, pretty sure we'd make the move after the year starts.

Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Deal (OOB)

To clarify: the low expectations are for our chances to get in anywhere, not related to the Lottery Nerd's abilities to predict.

FYI went to a Deal open house a few weeks ago and there will be no lottery spots.

Every year I hear Deal is full to the rafters and then I meet another kid in our OOB neighborhood who got in (after NOT going to a feeder). Figured it was worth a shot, but yes, expectations are very low.

These people committed boundary fraud and are covering it up with fake lottery results. It's not super hard to get a fake lease and pay stub with the right address.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What about 8th grade chances, with a sibling at Latin Cooper, otherwise no preferences:
Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Eliot Hine
Stuart Hobson
Jefferson

Why didnt this child enroll earlier if they have a sibling? This makes zero sense.

This is what happens when you have a younger sibling enroll somewhere. Say last year, younger sib got into Cooper pretty late but the older sib didn't make it in even with suddenly acquired sibling preference.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What about 8th grade chances, with a sibling at Latin Cooper, otherwise no preferences:
Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Eliot Hine
Stuart Hobson
Jefferson

Why didnt this child enroll earlier if they have a sibling? This makes zero sense.

This is what happens when you have a younger sibling enroll somewhere. Say last year, younger sib got into Cooper pretty late but the older sib didn't make it in even with suddenly acquired sibling preference.

Or kid was happy at somewhere like itds or basis and now isn't. Or kid is a step sibling or foster child or something and just joined the household. Plenty of other scenarios

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What about 8th grade chances, with a sibling at Latin Cooper, otherwise no preferences:
Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Eliot Hine
Stuart Hobson
Jefferson

Why didnt this child enroll earlier if they have a sibling? This makes zero sense.

This is what happens when you have a younger sibling enroll somewhere. Say last year, younger sib got into Cooper pretty late but the older sib didn't make it in even with suddenly acquired sibling preference.

Yes sibling preference does not always pull in a sibling, especially an older sibling. The more kids in a family the more complicated it can become.

[Anonymous]

Update! Stokes Brookland and willing to move.

Anonymous wrote:PK3
1. Yu Ying
2. DC Bilingual
3. LAMB
4. Stokes Spanish
5. MV8
6. MVP
7. Stokes French

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Update! Stokes Brookland and willing to move.

Anonymous wrote:PK3
1. Yu Ying
2. DC Bilingual
3. LAMB
4. Stokes Spanish
5. MV8
6. MVP
7. Stokes French

Based on my experience, if you have a good enough number for LAMB or DCB, you will def get into YY. My kid got a spot at YY outright but finished in the 20s on the DCB and LAMB waitlists. I also think stokes results can be quite different year to year because of its size. Last year only siblings got into French in the initial lottery.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What about 8th grade chances, with a sibling at Latin Cooper, otherwise no preferences:
Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Eliot Hine
Stuart Hobson
Jefferson

OP here (Sorry for the gap. Sometimes I do have to do my job)

So for the first time - I've got to say there is just not enough data to make even a rough estimate, and that's for Latin Cooper 8th grade with a sibling. They've let two kids in per year for 8th grade each of the last two years (all the data we have) but I have no idea if those are siblings or not, or if there are siblings left on the waitlist after that. My instinct is that your chances are high and they're usually letting in siblings, but I have absolutely no data to back that up. Your guess is as good as mine. I'll do the others for you, assuming you DON'T get into Cooper. Honestly, especially with a sibling, I'd just call the school. The might have a better idea.

Latin 2nd - 1%
Eliot Hine - 89%
Stuart Hobson - 0%
Jefferson - 0%
Nothing - 10%

The Latin 2nd number may actually be an over estimate if all/most of those are siblings.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You’re incredible. Id love some odds.

PK4

School Within School
Inspired Teaching
Lee Montessori
Seaton (not inbounds)

Thank you!

OP here. Assuming you'd switch schools in October:

School Within School - 7%
Inspired Teaching - 7%
Lee Montessori - 23%
Seaton (not inbounds) - 52%
Nothing - 11%

That's based on historical data, but I happen to know that Seaton is in a swing space next year. Generally, schools have more seats when they're in swing spaces, so I'd be surprised if you didn't get into Seaton.

Would you be willing to give numbers if we were NOT willing to move in Oct?

OP here. Sure. These are the numbers assuming you'd take a spot through August (no reason not to take a spot in the summer, right?)

School Within School - 5%
Inspired Teaching - 1%
Lee Montessori - 5%
Seaton (not inbounds) - 71%
Nothing - 18%

This is a great example of my previous point. Being willing to switch schools after school starts gives you a HUGE leg up in the lottery, and this is pretty common!