| Why were there only 541 to start with? It should be 550. |
550 admitted 541 started in September. Net 9 loss (assuming they pulled from waitpool) is actually very low compared to previous years. Comparing admitted # vs. Sept 9th grade enrollment (# loss): class of 2025 9 class of 2024 33 class of 2023 35 class of 2022 24 class of 2021 54 class of 2020 24 Maybe fewer kids declined offers. Maybe they more aggressively filled empty seats. |
Something similar to white flight? We saw this in 1970 busing. Integration failed bc white parents pulled their kids out of public schools. In TJ, students can simply return to their home schools to avoid aggravation. |
I am posting this again - Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ: 21-22: 10! 20-21: 1 19-20: 1 18-19: 6 This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this. |
No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”. And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss). |
Up to February, 21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment. 20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact. 18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22. |
Drop outs from learning loss. Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19. |
I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows. |
Yes, there were certainly many differences this year. Ignoring everything except admissions (and the fact that it’s happened before) certainly fits your narrative. |
This narrative is also supported, not only the unprecedented drop-out rate of 9th graders (and it isn't even close to 18-19), but also the unprecedented remedial classes for 9th graders, and the unprecedented low scores in certain math competitions by 9th graders. The data is mounting as we speak. Perhaps the JV teams are doing better. Perhaps this is for the better for TJ at the end of the day. The one thing you cannot do is attribute all of this to COVID or other general factors, when the facts are so unique to TJ in contrast to the general 9th grade population at FCPS. |
You're talking about less than 2% of the class. It's not as if there is some great migration happening. By the way, these kids are being treated like crap by a lot of parents with an agenda, and the guy who was the PTSA President at the beginning of the year (and has since resigned in disgrace) was extremely outspoken about his opinion that their class was illegitimate in an effort to get his half-Asian 8th grade kid a better shot at the Class of 2026 - he's one of the named complainants in the lawsuit. |
Let's cut that narrative off at the pass. The school decided to eliminate Math 2.5 (which is essentially a remedial class for students who aren't ready to move into Math 3 after RS1) in favor of optional targeted support for a small number of students. |
There is learning loss across FCPS. That plays out differently at TJ than a base school. There were a lot fewer declines/dropouts before Sept 21. Also unusual. And there were a lot of drop outs back in 17-19. So not unprecedented. |
Attributable to pandemic. How do scores compare to national/district scores over same time periods? |
HJ & AN should be ashamed of how they treated TJ students for their agendas. |