Reply to TJ drop outs under the new admission standards

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO::P0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.[/quote]

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years.  It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not.  The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past.  There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.   [/quote]

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss). 
[/quote]

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division.  COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division.  Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division.  So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.[/quote]

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19. 
[/quote]

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative.  The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22.  [b]Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year[/b].  There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.      [/quote]

Yes, there were certainly many differences this year.

Ignoring everything except admissions (and the fact that it’s happened before) certainly fits your narrative. 
[/quote]

This narrative is also supported, not only the unprecedented drop-out rate of 9th graders (and it isn't even close to 18-19), but also the unprecedented remedial classes for 9th graders, and the unprecedented low scores in certain math competitions by 9th graders.  The data is mounting as we speak.  Perhaps the JV teams are doing better.  Perhaps this is for the better for TJ at the end of the day.  The one thing you cannot do is attribute all of this to COVID or other general factors, when the facts are so unique to TJ in contrast to the general 9th grade population at FCPS.

[/quote]

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