TJ drop outs under the new admission standards

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

You're talking about less than 2% of the class. It's not as if there is some great migration happening.

By the way, these kids are being treated like crap by a lot of parents with an agenda, and the guy who was the PTSA President at the beginning of the year (and has since resigned in disgrace) was extremely outspoken about his opinion that their class was illegitimate in an effort to get his half-Asian 8th grade kid a better shot at the Class of 2026 - he's one of the named complainants in the lawsuit.

HJ & AN should be ashamed of how they treated TJ students for their agendas.

Especially how they used URM kids to further their racist agenda. The court has spoken...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

You're talking about less than 2% of the class. It's not as if there is some great migration happening.

By the way, these kids are being treated like crap by a lot of parents with an agenda, and the guy who was the PTSA President at the beginning of the year (and has since resigned in disgrace) was extremely outspoken about his opinion that their class was illegitimate in an effort to get his half-Asian 8th grade kid a better shot at the Class of 2026 - he's one of the named complainants in the lawsuit.

HJ & AN should be ashamed of how they treated TJ students for their agendas.

Especially how they used URM kids to further their racist agenda. The court has spoken...

They sure did. They didn’t hesitate to sh1t on URMs to get what they wanted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

You're talking about less than 2% of the class. It's not as if there is some great migration happening.

By the way, these kids are being treated like crap by a lot of parents with an agenda, and the guy who was the PTSA President at the beginning of the year (and has since resigned in disgrace) was extremely outspoken about his opinion that their class was illegitimate in an effort to get his half-Asian 8th grade kid a better shot at the Class of 2026 - he's one of the named complainants in the lawsuit.

Used to be 0.2%. Any dropout should be a big deal. Poor kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

Yes, there were certainly many differences this year.

Ignoring everything except admissions (and the fact that it’s happened before) certainly fits your narrative.

This narrative is also supported, not only the unprecedented drop-out rate of 9th graders (and it isn't even close to 18-19), but also the unprecedented remedial classes for 9th graders, and the unprecedented low scores in certain math competitions by 9th graders. The data is mounting as we speak. Perhaps the JV teams are doing better. Perhaps this is for the better for TJ at the end of the day. The one thing you cannot do is attribute all of this to COVID or other general factors, when the facts are so unique to TJ in contrast to the general 9th grade population at FCPS.

Let's cut that narrative off at the pass. The school decided to eliminate Math 2.5 (which is essentially a remedial class for students who aren't ready to move into Math 3 after RS1) in favor of optional targeted support for a small number of students.

Read the email.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

Yes, there were certainly many differences this year.

Ignoring everything except admissions (and the fact that it’s happened before) certainly fits your narrative.

This narrative is also supported, not only the unprecedented drop-out rate of 9th graders (and it isn't even close to 18-19), but also the unprecedented remedial classes for 9th graders, and the unprecedented low scores in certain math competitions by 9th graders. The data is mounting as we speak. Perhaps the JV teams are doing better. Perhaps this is for the better for TJ at the end of the day. The one thing you cannot do is attribute all of this to COVID or other general factors, when the facts are so unique to TJ in contrast to the general 9th grade population at FCPS.

There is learning loss across FCPS. That plays out differently at TJ than a base school.

There were a lot fewer declines/dropouts before Sept 21. Also unusual.

And there were a lot of drop outs back in 17-19. So not unprecedented.

The aggregate data says otherwise.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

Yes, there were certainly many differences this year.

Ignoring everything except admissions (and the fact that it’s happened before) certainly fits your narrative.

This narrative is also supported, not only the unprecedented drop-out rate of 9th graders (and it isn't even close to 18-19), but also the unprecedented remedial classes for 9th graders, and the unprecedented low scores in certain math competitions by 9th graders. The data is mounting as we speak. Perhaps the JV teams are doing better. Perhaps this is for the better for TJ at the end of the day. The one thing you cannot do is attribute all of this to COVID or other general factors, when the facts are so unique to TJ in contrast to the general 9th grade population at FCPS.

Attributable to pandemic.

How do scores compare to national/district scores over same time periods?

Results are relative.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

Yes, there were certainly many differences this year.

Ignoring everything except admissions (and the fact that it’s happened before) certainly fits your narrative.

This narrative is also supported, not only the unprecedented drop-out rate of 9th graders (and it isn't even close to 18-19), but also the unprecedented remedial classes for 9th graders, and the unprecedented low scores in certain math competitions by 9th graders. The data is mounting as we speak. Perhaps the JV teams are doing better. Perhaps this is for the better for TJ at the end of the day. The one thing you cannot do is attribute all of this to COVID or other general factors, when the facts are so unique to TJ in contrast to the general 9th grade population at FCPS.

Attributable to pandemic.

How do scores compare to national/district scores over same time periods?

Results are relative.

Link?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

You're talking about less than 2% of the class. It's not as if there is some great migration happening.

By the way, these kids are being treated like crap by a lot of parents with an agenda, and the guy who was the PTSA President at the beginning of the year (and has since resigned in disgrace) was extremely outspoken about his opinion that their class was illegitimate in an effort to get his half-Asian 8th grade kid a better shot at the Class of 2026 - he's one of the named complainants in the lawsuit.

HJ & AN should be ashamed of how they treated TJ students for their agendas.

Especially how they used URM kids to further their racist agenda. The court has spoken...

DP. You clearly don't know who HJ and AN are.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

Yes, there were certainly many differences this year.

Ignoring everything except admissions (and the fact that it’s happened before) certainly fits your narrative.

This narrative is also supported, not only the unprecedented drop-out rate of 9th graders (and it isn't even close to 18-19), but also the unprecedented remedial classes for 9th graders, and the unprecedented low scores in certain math competitions by 9th graders. The data is mounting as we speak. Perhaps the JV teams are doing better. Perhaps this is for the better for TJ at the end of the day. The one thing you cannot do is attribute all of this to COVID or other general factors, when the facts are so unique to TJ in contrast to the general 9th grade population at FCPS.

There is learning loss across FCPS. That plays out differently at TJ than a base school.

There were a lot fewer declines/dropouts before Sept 21. Also unusual.

And there were a lot of drop outs back in 17-19. So not unprecedented.

The aggregate data says otherwise.

Seems like you have already made up you mind regardless of data.

[Anonymous]

Plenty of ugly behavior on both sides. Maybe what they have in common is their narcissism. Maybe we should look for School Board candidates in 2023 who pledge to unwind TJHSST and focus on all the schools in FCPS and not just one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Plenty of ugly behavior on both sides. Maybe what they have in common is their narcissism. Maybe we should look for School Board candidates in 2023 who pledge to unwind TJHSST and focus on all the schools in FCPS and not just one.

Morning prayer done

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

Yes, there were certainly many differences this year.

Ignoring everything except admissions (and the fact that it’s happened before) certainly fits your narrative.

This narrative is also supported, not only the unprecedented drop-out rate of 9th graders (and it isn't even close to 18-19), but also the unprecedented remedial classes for 9th graders, and the unprecedented low scores in certain math competitions by 9th graders. The data is mounting as we speak. Perhaps the JV teams are doing better. Perhaps this is for the better for TJ at the end of the day. The one thing you cannot do is attribute all of this to COVID or other general factors, when the facts are so unique to TJ in contrast to the general 9th grade population at FCPS.

There is learning loss across FCPS. That plays out differently at TJ than a base school.

There were a lot fewer declines/dropouts before Sept 21. Also unusual.

And there were a lot of drop outs back in 17-19. So not unprecedented.

The aggregate data says otherwise.

Seems like you have already made up you mind regardless of data.

Assuming TJ plays out differently than a base school, learning loss should be more of a problem at other schools. The data shows a massive increase in enrollment for 9th graders across the board in FCPS. So what's up with TJ?

Before Sept. 21 is unusual, but still is part of the data.

Drop outs back in 17-19 was accompanied by smaller increase in aggregate in FCPS in general. Again, when we have massive increase in aggregate, the drop outs this year in TJ is highly unusual.

I am solely going off of data. What are you going off of? PR firm?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

Yes, there were certainly many differences this year.

Ignoring everything except admissions (and the fact that it’s happened before) certainly fits your narrative.

This narrative is also supported, not only the unprecedented drop-out rate of 9th graders (and it isn't even close to 18-19), but also the unprecedented remedial classes for 9th graders, and the unprecedented low scores in certain math competitions by 9th graders. The data is mounting as we speak. Perhaps the JV teams are doing better. Perhaps this is for the better for TJ at the end of the day. The one thing you cannot do is attribute all of this to COVID or other general factors, when the facts are so unique to TJ in contrast to the general 9th grade population at FCPS.

There is learning loss across FCPS. That plays out differently at TJ than a base school.

There were a lot fewer declines/dropouts before Sept 21. Also unusual.

And there were a lot of drop outs back in 17-19. So not unprecedented.

The aggregate data says otherwise.

Seems like you have already made up you mind regardless of data.

Assuming TJ plays out differently than a base school, learning loss should be more of a problem at other schools. The data shows a massive increase in enrollment for 9th graders across the board in FCPS. So what's up with TJ?

Before Sept. 21 is unusual, but still is part of the data.

Drop outs back in 17-19 was accompanied by smaller increase in aggregate in FCPS in general. Again, when we have massive increase in aggregate, the drop outs this year in TJ is highly unusual.

I am solely going off of data. What are you going off of? PR firm?

I'm going off all of the data - not just the bits you pick and choose.

Why would a small increase in FCPS numbers affect TJ drop out numbers?

Over 2017-2019, the 9th grade enrollment in FCPS increased by 239 students.
(19) 9th graders dropped out of TJ those two years (mid-year and summer).
(30) 10th/11th graders dropped out.

This year, the 9th grade enrollment in FCPS increased by 280 students.
TJ had an increase of 88 9th graders.
(10) 9th graders have dropped out so far.
(6) 10th/11th graders dropped out.

Students throughout FCPS faced learning loss during the pandemic. There were significantly fewer instructional hours in 19-20 and 20-21 than a typical year. Students likely realized that they didn’t quite have some important concepts down. At a base school, it’s easier to stick it out. But at TJ, it’s tougher to be “behind”. Maybe the class of 2025 was more sensitive to learning loss since there were more students from low-income families who likely didn’t have pandemic tutors.

[Anonymous]

I was honestly expecting (and fearing) a much higher number of dropouts, especially at the change of semesters.

Props to these kids for sticking it out.

Shame on anyone who makes a big deal out of ten kids in one class. It's a small sample size no matter how you slice it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I was honestly expecting (and fearing) a much higher number of dropouts, especially at the change of semesters.

Props to these kids for sticking it out.

Shame on anyone who makes a big deal out of ten kids in one class. It's a small sample size no matter how you slice it.

If you can't handle the heat, get of the kitchen.