Maryland is in Phase 2 starting 5pm on Friday

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh. I hope Elrich acts more cautiously. MoCo is a hotspot.

Serious question: what would it take to *not* look like a hotspot in your eyes?

I’ll tell you! Let’s look at the dashboard Elrich and Gayles have set up to track the reopening metrics. As of today, here’s where we are:

All of these metrics have shown declines 14 out of the last 14 days:

- COVID hospitalizations
- COVID ER patients
- COVID ICU admissions
- ICU utilization rate
- Ventilator use
- Test positivity

The last one is really important because, while cases have declined for 8 out of the last 14 days, positivity rate has declined for all 14 days, meaning increases in cases are due to more testing, not further spread of the disease.

Acute Care bed utilization declined 2 out of the last 14 days, but the 3-day rolling average is 71%. The benchmark Gayles wants to see is 70%, so we are exceptionally close to that.

We have the capacity to test 3.2% of the population, above the CDC guideline of 2%. Gayles wants us to be able to test 5%, but hasn’t justified why we need to exceed the CDC’s guidelines.

So there’s your answer. Every single metric that shows burden of the disease on hospitals and spread of the disease is positive. Our testing capacity is strong. The contact tracing operation Hogan set up can handle 1,000 cases a day, above what Maryland has been doing, so it’s sufficient (and is continuing to be expanded).

Now, please show me where in the data suggests that MoCo is a hotspot that can’t be reopened.

I was pleased to see a reply, but a little disappointed when I saw it was from someone in the "reopen" camp. I agree with everyone you said, except perhaps the comment about testing capacity being strong. We're still not at where we ought to be with testing in Montgomery County. Unlike other parts of the state, you can't simply go somewhere to get tested if you're worried you may have been exposed. The testing constraints is reflected in the relatively percentage of test results coming back positive. It's definitely an area that's getting better, and I tend to think its good enough to warrant taking another step in reopening, but that's probably the area I'm most worried about. If you can't test people quickly, you can't contain the spread.

But, I know a lot of people that are still very strictly isolating themselves. I honestly don't understand what their "end game" is. Short of a vaccine, what would make them feel relatively comfortable about leaving the house?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh. I hope Elrich acts more cautiously. MoCo is a hotspot.

Serious question: what would it take to *not* look like a hotspot in your eyes?

I’ll tell you! Let’s look at the dashboard Elrich and Gayles have set up to track the reopening metrics. As of today, here’s where we are:

All of these metrics have shown declines 14 out of the last 14 days:

- COVID hospitalizations
- COVID ER patients
- COVID ICU admissions
- ICU utilization rate
- Ventilator use
- Test positivity

The last one is really important because, while cases have declined for 8 out of the last 14 days, positivity rate has declined for all 14 days, meaning increases in cases are due to more testing, not further spread of the disease.

Acute Care bed utilization declined 2 out of the last 14 days, but the 3-day rolling average is 71%. The benchmark Gayles wants to see is 70%, so we are exceptionally close to that.

We have the capacity to test 3.2% of the population, above the CDC guideline of 2%. Gayles wants us to be able to test 5%, but hasn’t justified why we need to exceed the CDC’s guidelines.

So there’s your answer. Every single metric that shows burden of the disease on hospitals and spread of the disease is positive. Our testing capacity is strong. The contact tracing operation Hogan set up can handle 1,000 cases a day, above what Maryland has been doing, so it’s sufficient (and is continuing to be expanded).

Now, please show me where in the data suggests that MoCo is a hotspot that can’t be reopened.

I was pleased to see a reply, but a little disappointed when I saw it was from someone in the "reopen" camp. I agree with everyone you said, except perhaps the comment about testing capacity being strong. We're still not at where we ought to be with testing in Montgomery County. Unlike other parts of the state, you can't simply go somewhere to get tested if you're worried you may have been exposed. The testing constraints is reflected in the relatively percentage of test results coming back positive. It's definitely an area that's getting better, and I tend to think its good enough to warrant taking another step in reopening, but that's probably the area I'm most worried about. If you can't test people quickly, you can't contain the spread.

But, I know a lot of people that are still very strictly isolating themselves. I honestly don't understand what their "end game" is. Short of a vaccine, what would make them feel relatively comfortable about leaving the house?

Umm ... I seriously disagree with you. CDC guidelines say a 10% positive rate is good for reopening. We’re at 11%. We have testing sites all over the place, including at CVS, urgent care centers, etc. You don’t need a doctor’s order or symptoms.

I don’t mean this in a snarky way, but do you follow this closely? I do. I read virtually everything Mike Ricci and Kata Hall post. That’s how I know what our testing capacity is.

[Anonymous]

Also, when I said “reopen,” I meant Phase 2. What in my reply discredited me as someone in your so-called “reopen camp”?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh. I hope Elrich acts more cautiously. MoCo is a hotspot.

Serious question: what would it take to *not* look like a hotspot in your eyes?

I’ll tell you! Let’s look at the dashboard Elrich and Gayles have set up to track the reopening metrics. As of today, here’s where we are:

All of these metrics have shown declines 14 out of the last 14 days:

- COVID hospitalizations
- COVID ER patients
- COVID ICU admissions
- ICU utilization rate
- Ventilator use
- Test positivity

The last one is really important because, while cases have declined for 8 out of the last 14 days, positivity rate has declined for all 14 days, meaning increases in cases are due to more testing, not further spread of the disease.

Acute Care bed utilization declined 2 out of the last 14 days, but the 3-day rolling average is 71%. The benchmark Gayles wants to see is 70%, so we are exceptionally close to that.

We have the capacity to test 3.2% of the population, above the CDC guideline of 2%. Gayles wants us to be able to test 5%, but hasn’t justified why we need to exceed the CDC’s guidelines.

So there’s your answer. Every single metric that shows burden of the disease on hospitals and spread of the disease is positive. Our testing capacity is strong. The contact tracing operation Hogan set up can handle 1,000 cases a day, above what Maryland has been doing, so it’s sufficient (and is continuing to be expanded).

Now, please show me where in the data suggests that MoCo is a hotspot that can’t be reopened.

I was pleased to see a reply, but a little disappointed when I saw it was from someone in the "reopen" camp. I agree with everyone you said, except perhaps the comment about testing capacity being strong. We're still not at where we ought to be with testing in Montgomery County. Unlike other parts of the state, you can't simply go somewhere to get tested if you're worried you may have been exposed. The testing constraints is reflected in the relatively percentage of test results coming back positive. It's definitely an area that's getting better, and I tend to think its good enough to warrant taking another step in reopening, but that's probably the area I'm most worried about. If you can't test people quickly, you can't contain the spread.

But, I know a lot of people that are still very strictly isolating themselves. I honestly don't understand what their "end game" is. Short of a vaccine, what would make them feel relatively comfortable about leaving the house?

Umm ... I seriously disagree with you. CDC guidelines say a 10% positive rate is good for reopening. We’re at 11%. We have testing sites all over the place, including at CVS, urgent care centers, etc. You don’t need a doctor’s order or symptoms.

I don’t mean this in a snarky way, but do you follow this closely? I do. I read virtually everything Mike Ricci and Kata Hall post. That’s how I know what our testing capacity is.

My wife is a doctor in MoCo, and a close friend was temporarily called in to a leadership position with the contact tracing efforts. They can't get tests for people. When people are desperate for a test, but not showing symptoms, all they can do is suggest they drive over to Six Flags. I'm not kdding. Regardless of what the numbers are, that doesn't sound like a stable situation to me.

Again, things are probably good enought to continue reopening efforts, but we've still got major testing challenging in Montgomery County.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Also, when I said “reopen,” I meant Phase 2. What in my reply discredited me as someone in your so-called “reopen camp”?

It wasn't my intent to try to discredit you. And I didn't mean "reopen" so literally. All I was saying is that it sounds like you're of a similar opinion to me and I'm curious what the people advocating for continued, tight lockdowns are thinking. I really don't understand what they're looking for to be comfortable with phase 2 reopening and beyond.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Umm ... I seriously disagree with you. CDC guidelines say a 10% positive rate is good for reopening. We’re at 11%. We have testing sites all over the place, including at CVS, urgent care centers, etc. You don’t need a doctor’s order or symptoms.

By the way, this is absolutely wrong. I know the Governor is claiming this, but it's simply not true in Montgomery County. It's led to a number of angry calls from citizens to the county public health workers demanding their COVID tests.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Umm ... I seriously disagree with you. CDC guidelines say a 10% positive rate is good for reopening. We’re at 11%. We have testing sites all over the place, including at CVS, urgent care centers, etc. You don’t need a doctor’s order or symptoms.

By the way, this is absolutely wrong. I know the Governor is claiming this, but it's simply not true in Montgomery County. It's led to a number of angry calls from citizens to the county public health workers demanding their COVID tests.

I’ve literally seen people getting COVID tests at my local CVS, and I got an email from Rightttime with information for making a testing appointment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also, when I said “reopen,” I meant Phase 2. What in my reply discredited me as someone in your so-called “reopen camp”?

It wasn't my intent to try to discredit you. And I didn't mean "reopen" so literally. All I was saying is that it sounds like you're of a similar opinion to me and I'm curious what the people advocating for continued, tight lockdowns are thinking. I really don't understand what they're looking for to be comfortable with phase 2 reopening and beyond.

Sorry, yeah — you’re right. I don’t know what they’re looking for either. It’s like they think those of us who want to reopen want to pack 1,000 people into a tight room immediately. There are intermediary steps that are prudent to take for the economy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh. I hope Elrich acts more cautiously. MoCo is a hotspot.

Serious question: what would it take to *not* look like a hotspot in your eyes?

I’ll tell you! Let’s look at the dashboard Elrich and Gayles have set up to track the reopening metrics. As of today, here’s where we are:

All of these metrics have shown declines 14 out of the last 14 days:

- COVID hospitalizations
- COVID ER patients
- COVID ICU admissions
- ICU utilization rate
- Ventilator use
- Test positivity

The last one is really important because, while cases have declined for 8 out of the last 14 days, positivity rate has declined for all 14 days, meaning increases in cases are due to more testing, not further spread of the disease.

Acute Care bed utilization declined 2 out of the last 14 days, but the 3-day rolling average is 71%. The benchmark Gayles wants to see is 70%, so we are exceptionally close to that.

We have the capacity to test 3.2% of the population, above the CDC guideline of 2%. Gayles wants us to be able to test 5%, but hasn’t justified why we need to exceed the CDC’s guidelines.

So there’s your answer. Every single metric that shows burden of the disease on hospitals and spread of the disease is positive. Our testing capacity is strong. The contact tracing operation Hogan set up can handle 1,000 cases a day, above what Maryland has been doing, so it’s sufficient (and is continuing to be expanded).

Now, please show me where in the data suggests that MoCo is a hotspot that can’t be reopened.

I was pleased to see a reply, but a little disappointed when I saw it was from someone in the "reopen" camp. I agree with everyone you said, except perhaps the comment about testing capacity being strong. We're still not at where we ought to be with testing in Montgomery County. Unlike other parts of the state, you can't simply go somewhere to get tested if you're worried you may have been exposed. The testing constraints is reflected in the relatively percentage of test results coming back positive. It's definitely an area that's getting better, and I tend to think its good enough to warrant taking another step in reopening, but that's probably the area I'm most worried about. If you can't test people quickly, you can't contain the spread.

But, I know a lot of people that are still very strictly isolating themselves. I honestly don't understand what their "end game" is. Short of a vaccine, what would make them feel relatively comfortable about leaving the house?

Umm ... I seriously disagree with you. CDC guidelines say a 10% positive rate is good for reopening. We’re at 11%. We have testing sites all over the place, including at CVS, urgent care centers, etc. You don’t need a doctor’s order or symptoms.

I don’t mean this in a snarky way, but do you follow this closely? I do. I read virtually everything Mike Ricci and Kata Hall post. That’s how I know what our testing capacity is.

My wife is a doctor in MoCo, and a close friend was temporarily called in to a leadership position with the contact tracing efforts. They can't get tests for people. When people are desperate for a test, but not showing symptoms, all they can do is suggest they drive over to Six Flags. I'm not kdding. Regardless of what the numbers are, that doesn't sound like a stable situation to me.

Again, things are probably good enought to continue reopening efforts, but we've still got major testing challenging in Montgomery County.

Ok, so you agree we can continue reopening efforts, despite testing not being up to what you’d like. So you agree with me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh. I hope Elrich acts more cautiously. MoCo is a hotspot.

Serious question: what would it take to *not* look like a hotspot in your eyes?

I’ll tell you! Let’s look at the dashboard Elrich and Gayles have set up to track the reopening metrics. As of today, here’s where we are:

All of these metrics have shown declines 14 out of the last 14 days:

- COVID hospitalizations
- COVID ER patients
- COVID ICU admissions
- ICU utilization rate
- Ventilator use
- Test positivity

The last one is really important because, while cases have declined for 8 out of the last 14 days, positivity rate has declined for all 14 days, meaning increases in cases are due to more testing, not further spread of the disease.

Acute Care bed utilization declined 2 out of the last 14 days, but the 3-day rolling average is 71%. The benchmark Gayles wants to see is 70%, so we are exceptionally close to that.

We have the capacity to test 3.2% of the population, above the CDC guideline of 2%. Gayles wants us to be able to test 5%, but hasn’t justified why we need to exceed the CDC’s guidelines.

So there’s your answer. Every single metric that shows burden of the disease on hospitals and spread of the disease is positive. Our testing capacity is strong. The contact tracing operation Hogan set up can handle 1,000 cases a day, above what Maryland has been doing, so it’s sufficient (and is continuing to be expanded).

Now, please show me where in the data suggests that MoCo is a hotspot that can’t be reopened.

I was pleased to see a reply, but a little disappointed when I saw it was from someone in the "reopen" camp. I agree with everyone you said, except perhaps the comment about testing capacity being strong. We're still not at where we ought to be with testing in Montgomery County. Unlike other parts of the state, you can't simply go somewhere to get tested if you're worried you may have been exposed. The testing constraints is reflected in the relatively percentage of test results coming back positive. It's definitely an area that's getting better, and I tend to think its good enough to warrant taking another step in reopening, but that's probably the area I'm most worried about. If you can't test people quickly, you can't contain the spread.

But, I know a lot of people that are still very strictly isolating themselves. I honestly don't understand what their "end game" is. Short of a vaccine, what would make them feel relatively comfortable about leaving the house?

Umm ... I seriously disagree with you. CDC guidelines say a 10% positive rate is good for reopening. We’re at 11%. We have testing sites all over the place, including at CVS, urgent care centers, etc. You don’t need a doctor’s order or symptoms.

I don’t mean this in a snarky way, but do you follow this closely? I do. I read virtually everything Mike Ricci and Kata Hall post. That’s how I know what our testing capacity is.

My wife is a doctor in MoCo, and a close friend was temporarily called in to a leadership position with the contact tracing efforts. They can't get tests for people. When people are desperate for a test, but not showing symptoms, all they can do is suggest they drive over to Six Flags. I'm not kdding. Regardless of what the numbers are, that doesn't sound like a stable situation to me.

Again, things are probably good enought to continue reopening efforts, but we've still got major testing challenging in Montgomery County.

Ok, so you agree we can continue reopening efforts, despite testing not being up to what you’d like. So you agree with me.

Yep. The other numbers look pretty good, as you've said. Caution is warranted as we ramp up testing, but I don't think there's any data demonstrating there's a real problem.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh. I hope Elrich acts more cautiously. MoCo is a hotspot.

No we are not. You clearly aren’t following the data.

NP poster and terrible at finding the most current data. I've tried to dashboard but is there anything else you could link to help me? Thank you if you can

You need to be more specific about what you are looking for, if it’s something beyond the dashboard.

[Anonymous]

The dashboard doesn't show the true trends as I don't know any real data scientists that use 3 day averages especially with data issues with weekends / 3 day weekends. The actual trend over time is far greater than what they are showing using simplistic measures. You will note that Hogan team marks the trends differently and also shows the steep decreases from mid April.

It also bothers me that Moco has never been transparent on the amount of deaths related to nursing homes. The top 7 worst Moco nursing homes account for approx 24% of deaths with 20-30+ cases each totaling 169 deaths. Nursing homes account for 64% of the Moco deaths and each week account for a large part of the deaths . I hope - based on what Hogan said - we have addressed better with PPE, universal testing, professional staff backup, etc - but who knows. I have found nothing of this on the Moco site - but Maryland gov releases the data each wednesday.

I can't comment on testing capacity like others have commented.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The dashboard doesn't show the true trends as I don't know any real data scientists that use 3 day averages especially with data issues with weekends / 3 day weekends. The actual trend over time is far greater than what they are showing using simplistic measures. You will note that Hogan team marks the trends differently and also shows the steep decreases from mid April.

It also bothers me that Moco has never been transparent on the amount of deaths related to nursing homes. The top 7 worst Moco nursing homes account for approx 24% of deaths with 20-30+ cases each totaling 169 deaths. Nursing homes account for 64% of the Moco deaths and each week account for a large part of the deaths . I hope - based on what Hogan said - we have addressed better with PPE, universal testing, professional staff backup, etc - but who knows. I have found nothing of this on the Moco site - but Maryland gov releases the data each wednesday.

I can't comment on testing capacity like others have commented.

Yep.

I’ve kept track of the percentage of new deaths each week in MoCo are from nursing home residents, as the county and state won’t report it that way (but you can easily derive it). Here it is:

May 5-12: 90%
May 13-20: 48%
May 21-27: 74%
May 28-June 3: 67%

So a significant percentage each time and no indication that it’s improving. Like you said, 64% of MoCo’s COVID deaths are among nursing home residents. Elrich hasn’t said ONE thing about it, and yet claims to care about the well-being of his constituents.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The dashboard doesn't show the true trends as I don't know any real data scientists that use 3 day averages especially with data issues with weekends / 3 day weekends. The actual trend over time is far greater than what they are showing using simplistic measures. You will note that Hogan team marks the trends differently and also shows the steep decreases from mid April.

It also bothers me that Moco has never been transparent on the amount of deaths related to nursing homes. The top 7 worst Moco nursing homes account for approx 24% of deaths with 20-30+ cases each totaling 169 deaths. Nursing homes account for 64% of the Moco deaths and each week account for a large part of the deaths . I hope - based on what Hogan said - we have addressed better with PPE, universal testing, professional staff backup, etc - but who knows. I have found nothing of this on the Moco site - but Maryland gov releases the data each wednesday.

I can't comment on testing capacity like others have commented.

Yep.

I’ve kept track of the percentage of new deaths each week in MoCo are from nursing home residents, as the county and state won’t report it that way (but you can easily derive it). Here it is:

May 5-12: 90%
May 13-20: 48%
May 21-27: 74%
May 28-June 3: 67%

So a significant percentage each time and no indication that it’s improving. Like you said, 64% of MoCo’s COVID deaths are among nursing home residents. Elrich hasn’t said ONE thing about it, and yet claims to care about the well-being of his constituents.

It’s going to be a long tail to the impacts of the nursing home mistakes early on (and still there?) by Moco work it’s way out. There should be a spotlight on this issue but there is no data on the Moco site only the Maryland site.

And with 99,100 people in Moco filing for unemployment since March and many people who don’t have official jobs - but lost work (day laborers etc). This is really disgraceful. Our Moco at risk groups and poor are really suffering.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh. I hope Elrich acts more cautiously. MoCo is a hotspot.

Serious question: what would it take to *not* look like a hotspot in your eyes?

I’ll tell you! Let’s look at the dashboard Elrich and Gayles have set up to track the reopening metrics. As of today, here’s where we are:

All of these metrics have shown declines 14 out of the last 14 days:

- COVID hospitalizations
- COVID ER patients
- COVID ICU admissions
- ICU utilization rate
- Ventilator use
- Test positivity

The last one is really important because, while cases have declined for 8 out of the last 14 days, positivity rate has declined for all 14 days, meaning increases in cases are due to more testing, not further spread of the disease.

Acute Care bed utilization declined 2 out of the last 14 days, but the 3-day rolling average is 71%. The benchmark Gayles wants to see is 70%, so we are exceptionally close to that.

We have the capacity to test 3.2% of the population, above the CDC guideline of 2%. Gayles wants us to be able to test 5%, but hasn’t justified why we need to exceed the CDC’s guidelines.

So there’s your answer. Every single metric that shows burden of the disease on hospitals and spread of the disease is positive. Our testing capacity is strong. The contact tracing operation Hogan set up can handle 1,000 cases a day, above what Maryland has been doing, so it’s sufficient (and is continuing to be expanded).

Now, please show me where in the data suggests that MoCo is a hotspot that can’t be reopened.

I was pleased to see a reply, but a little disappointed when I saw it was from someone in the "reopen" camp. I agree with everyone you said, except perhaps the comment about testing capacity being strong. We're still not at where we ought to be with testing in Montgomery County. Unlike other parts of the state, you can't simply go somewhere to get tested if you're worried you may have been exposed. The testing constraints is reflected in the relatively percentage of test results coming back positive. It's definitely an area that's getting better, and I tend to think its good enough to warrant taking another step in reopening, but that's probably the area I'm most worried about. If you can't test people quickly, you can't contain the spread.

But, I know a lot of people that are still very strictly isolating themselves. I honestly don't understand what their "end game" is. Short of a vaccine, what would make them feel relatively comfortable about leaving the house?

Umm ... I seriously disagree with you. CDC guidelines say a 10% positive rate is good for reopening. We’re at 11%. We have testing sites all over the place, including at CVS, urgent care centers, etc. You don’t need a doctor’s order or symptoms.

I don’t mean this in a snarky way, but do you follow this closely? I do. I read virtually everything Mike Ricci and Kata Hall post. That’s how I know what our testing capacity is.

My wife is a doctor in MoCo, and a close friend was temporarily called in to a leadership position with the contact tracing efforts. They can't get tests for people. When people are desperate for a test, but not showing symptoms, all they can do is suggest they drive over to Six Flags. I'm not kdding. Regardless of what the numbers are, that doesn't sound like a stable situation to me.

Again, things are probably good enought to continue reopening efforts, but we've still got major testing challenging in Montgomery County.

Ok, so you agree we can continue reopening efforts, despite testing not being up to what you’d like. So you agree with me.

Testing has increased substantially in Maryland over the past 10 days. Your anecdotes aren’t consistent with the numbers.