Maryland is in Phase 2 starting 5pm on Friday

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh. I hope Elrich acts more cautiously. MoCo is a hotspot.

Serious question: what would it take to *not* look like a hotspot in your eyes?

I’ll tell you! Let’s look at the dashboard Elrich and Gayles have set up to track the reopening metrics. As of today, here’s where we are:

All of these metrics have shown declines 14 out of the last 14 days:

- COVID hospitalizations
- COVID ER patients
- COVID ICU admissions
- ICU utilization rate
- Ventilator use
- Test positivity

The last one is really important because, while cases have declined for 8 out of the last 14 days, positivity rate has declined for all 14 days, meaning increases in cases are due to more testing, not further spread of the disease.

Acute Care bed utilization declined 2 out of the last 14 days, but the 3-day rolling average is 71%. The benchmark Gayles wants to see is 70%, so we are exceptionally close to that.

We have the capacity to test 3.2% of the population, above the CDC guideline of 2%. Gayles wants us to be able to test 5%, but hasn’t justified why we need to exceed the CDC’s guidelines.

So there’s your answer. Every single metric that shows burden of the disease on hospitals and spread of the disease is positive. Our testing capacity is strong. The contact tracing operation Hogan set up can handle 1,000 cases a day, above what Maryland has been doing, so it’s sufficient (and is continuing to be expanded).

Now, please show me where in the data suggests that MoCo is a hotspot that can’t be reopened.

I was pleased to see a reply, but a little disappointed when I saw it was from someone in the "reopen" camp. I agree with everyone you said, except perhaps the comment about testing capacity being strong. We're still not at where we ought to be with testing in Montgomery County. Unlike other parts of the state, you can't simply go somewhere to get tested if you're worried you may have been exposed. The testing constraints is reflected in the relatively percentage of test results coming back positive. It's definitely an area that's getting better, and I tend to think its good enough to warrant taking another step in reopening, but that's probably the area I'm most worried about. If you can't test people quickly, you can't contain the spread.

But, I know a lot of people that are still very strictly isolating themselves. I honestly don't understand what their "end game" is. Short of a vaccine, what would make them feel relatively comfortable about leaving the house?

Umm ... I seriously disagree with you. CDC guidelines say a 10% positive rate is good for reopening. We’re at 11%. We have testing sites all over the place, including at CVS, urgent care centers, etc. You don’t need a doctor’s order or symptoms.

I don’t mean this in a snarky way, but do you follow this closely? I do. I read virtually everything Mike Ricci and Kata Hall post. That’s how I know what our testing capacity is.

My wife is a doctor in MoCo, and a close friend was temporarily called in to a leadership position with the contact tracing efforts. They can't get tests for people. When people are desperate for a test, but not showing symptoms, all they can do is suggest they drive over to Six Flags. I'm not kdding. Regardless of what the numbers are, that doesn't sound like a stable situation to me.

Again, things are probably good enought to continue reopening efforts, but we've still got major testing challenging in Montgomery County.

Ok, so you agree we can continue reopening efforts, despite testing not being up to what you’d like. So you agree with me.

Testing has increased substantially in Maryland over the past 10 days. Your anecdotes aren’t consistent with the numbers.

To be clear, I wasn't talking about Maryland as a whole. I was talking about Montgomery County. And I wasn't claiming you can't get tests at all- I was saying we don't have enough test kits and supplies to test asymptomatic individuals that are simply worried they were exposed.

Hogan has claimed anyone that wants a test can get a test. That's simply not true in Montgomery County yet. And while I don't think that's critical to initial reopening stages, I think it's potentially a useful tool for identifying and isolating cases early.l, particularly in those individuals who may have done risky behavior.

The specific example that's come up recently are parents calling in trying to get tests for their kids that were involved in the protests. We don't have the tests in Montgomery County to be able to use them on those cases.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh. I hope Elrich acts more cautiously. MoCo is a hotspot.

Serious question: what would it take to *not* look like a hotspot in your eyes?

I’ll tell you! Let’s look at the dashboard Elrich and Gayles have set up to track the reopening metrics. As of today, here’s where we are:

All of these metrics have shown declines 14 out of the last 14 days:

- COVID hospitalizations
- COVID ER patients
- COVID ICU admissions
- ICU utilization rate
- Ventilator use
- Test positivity

The last one is really important because, while cases have declined for 8 out of the last 14 days, positivity rate has declined for all 14 days, meaning increases in cases are due to more testing, not further spread of the disease.

Acute Care bed utilization declined 2 out of the last 14 days, but the 3-day rolling average is 71%. The benchmark Gayles wants to see is 70%, so we are exceptionally close to that.

We have the capacity to test 3.2% of the population, above the CDC guideline of 2%. Gayles wants us to be able to test 5%, but hasn’t justified why we need to exceed the CDC’s guidelines.

So there’s your answer. Every single metric that shows burden of the disease on hospitals and spread of the disease is positive. Our testing capacity is strong. The contact tracing operation Hogan set up can handle 1,000 cases a day, above what Maryland has been doing, so it’s sufficient (and is continuing to be expanded).

Now, please show me where in the data suggests that MoCo is a hotspot that can’t be reopened.

I was pleased to see a reply, but a little disappointed when I saw it was from someone in the "reopen" camp. I agree with everyone you said, except perhaps the comment about testing capacity being strong. We're still not at where we ought to be with testing in Montgomery County. Unlike other parts of the state, you can't simply go somewhere to get tested if you're worried you may have been exposed. The testing constraints is reflected in the relatively percentage of test results coming back positive. It's definitely an area that's getting better, and I tend to think its good enough to warrant taking another step in reopening, but that's probably the area I'm most worried about. If you can't test people quickly, you can't contain the spread.

But, I know a lot of people that are still very strictly isolating themselves. I honestly don't understand what their "end game" is. Short of a vaccine, what would make them feel relatively comfortable about leaving the house?

Umm ... I seriously disagree with you. CDC guidelines say a 10% positive rate is good for reopening. We’re at 11%. We have testing sites all over the place, including at CVS, urgent care centers, etc. You don’t need a doctor’s order or symptoms.

I don’t mean this in a snarky way, but do you follow this closely? I do. I read virtually everything Mike Ricci and Kata Hall post. That’s how I know what our testing capacity is.

My wife is a doctor in MoCo, and a close friend was temporarily called in to a leadership position with the contact tracing efforts. They can't get tests for people. When people are desperate for a test, but not showing symptoms, all they can do is suggest they drive over to Six Flags. I'm not kdding. Regardless of what the numbers are, that doesn't sound like a stable situation to me.

Again, things are probably good enought to continue reopening efforts, but we've still got major testing challenging in Montgomery County.

Ok, so you agree we can continue reopening efforts, despite testing not being up to what you’d like. So you agree with me.

Testing has increased substantially in Maryland over the past 10 days. Your anecdotes aren’t consistent with the numbers.

To be clear, I wasn't talking about Maryland as a whole. I was talking about Montgomery County. And I wasn't claiming you can't get tests at all- I was saying we don't have enough test kits and supplies to test asymptomatic individuals that are simply worried they were exposed.

Hogan has claimed anyone that wants a test can get a test. That's simply not true in Montgomery County yet. And while I don't think that's critical to initial reopening stages, I think it's potentially a useful tool for identifying and isolating cases early.l, particularly in those individuals who may have done risky behavior.

The specific example that's come up recently are parents calling in trying to get tests for their kids that were involved in the protests. We don't have the tests in Montgomery County to be able to use them on those cases.

I just went to the CVS website and was able to make an appointment for a test as long as I checked the box for any symptoms. I checked that I did not have a doctor’s referral and was not prioritized by the local health authorities in any way.

I can make an appointment at 10am today for results in 2-4 days.

So I’m not getting what you’re talking about.

[Anonymous]

Also, I could say I had a cough on the site, even if I don’t have one. They’re not going to verify at CVS in any way.

So an asymptomatic person can get one if they just say they had a cough at some point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh. I hope Elrich acts more cautiously. MoCo is a hotspot.

Serious question: what would it take to *not* look like a hotspot in your eyes?

I’ll tell you! Let’s look at the dashboard Elrich and Gayles have set up to track the reopening metrics. As of today, here’s where we are:

All of these metrics have shown declines 14 out of the last 14 days:

- COVID hospitalizations
- COVID ER patients
- COVID ICU admissions
- ICU utilization rate
- Ventilator use
- Test positivity

The last one is really important because, while cases have declined for 8 out of the last 14 days, positivity rate has declined for all 14 days, meaning increases in cases are due to more testing, not further spread of the disease.

Acute Care bed utilization declined 2 out of the last 14 days, but the 3-day rolling average is 71%. The benchmark Gayles wants to see is 70%, so we are exceptionally close to that.

We have the capacity to test 3.2% of the population, above the CDC guideline of 2%. Gayles wants us to be able to test 5%, but hasn’t justified why we need to exceed the CDC’s guidelines.

So there’s your answer. Every single metric that shows burden of the disease on hospitals and spread of the disease is positive. Our testing capacity is strong. The contact tracing operation Hogan set up can handle 1,000 cases a day, above what Maryland has been doing, so it’s sufficient (and is continuing to be expanded).

Now, please show me where in the data suggests that MoCo is a hotspot that can’t be reopened.

I was pleased to see a reply, but a little disappointed when I saw it was from someone in the "reopen" camp. I agree with everyone you said, except perhaps the comment about testing capacity being strong. We're still not at where we ought to be with testing in Montgomery County. Unlike other parts of the state, you can't simply go somewhere to get tested if you're worried you may have been exposed. The testing constraints is reflected in the relatively percentage of test results coming back positive. It's definitely an area that's getting better, and I tend to think its good enough to warrant taking another step in reopening, but that's probably the area I'm most worried about. If you can't test people quickly, you can't contain the spread.

But, I know a lot of people that are still very strictly isolating themselves. I honestly don't understand what their "end game" is. Short of a vaccine, what would make them feel relatively comfortable about leaving the house?

Umm ... I seriously disagree with you. CDC guidelines say a 10% positive rate is good for reopening. We’re at 11%. We have testing sites all over the place, including at CVS, urgent care centers, etc. You don’t need a doctor’s order or symptoms.

I don’t mean this in a snarky way, but do you follow this closely? I do. I read virtually everything Mike Ricci and Kata Hall post. That’s how I know what our testing capacity is.

My wife is a doctor in MoCo, and a close friend was temporarily called in to a leadership position with the contact tracing efforts. They can't get tests for people. When people are desperate for a test, but not showing symptoms, all they can do is suggest they drive over to Six Flags. I'm not kdding. Regardless of what the numbers are, that doesn't sound like a stable situation to me.

Again, things are probably good enought to continue reopening efforts, but we've still got major testing challenging in Montgomery County.

Ok, so you agree we can continue reopening efforts, despite testing not being up to what you’d like. So you agree with me.

Testing has increased substantially in Maryland over the past 10 days. Your anecdotes aren’t consistent with the numbers.

To be clear, I wasn't talking about Maryland as a whole. I was talking about Montgomery County. And I wasn't claiming you can't get tests at all- I was saying we don't have enough test kits and supplies to test asymptomatic individuals that are simply worried they were exposed.

Hogan has claimed anyone that wants a test can get a test. That's simply not true in Montgomery County yet. And while I don't think that's critical to initial reopening stages, I think it's potentially a useful tool for identifying and isolating cases early.l, particularly in those individuals who may have done risky behavior.

The specific example that's come up recently are parents calling in trying to get tests for their kids that were involved in the protests. We don't have the tests in Montgomery County to be able to use them on those cases.

I just went to the CVS website and was able to make an appointment for a test as long as I checked the box for any symptoms. I checked that I did not have a doctor’s referral and was not prioritized by the local health authorities in any way.

I can make an appointment at 10am today for results in 2-4 days.

So I’m not getting what you’re talking about.

Thank you for confirming what I said. If you're asymptomatic, you can't get a test in MoCo.

[Anonymous]

Without lying that is.

The broader point is that we're still constrained on test kits and supplies in MoCo.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh. I hope Elrich acts more cautiously. MoCo is a hotspot.

Serious question: what would it take to *not* look like a hotspot in your eyes?

I’ll tell you! Let’s look at the dashboard Elrich and Gayles have set up to track the reopening metrics. As of today, here’s where we are:

All of these metrics have shown declines 14 out of the last 14 days:

- COVID hospitalizations
- COVID ER patients
- COVID ICU admissions
- ICU utilization rate
- Ventilator use
- Test positivity

The last one is really important because, while cases have declined for 8 out of the last 14 days, positivity rate has declined for all 14 days, meaning increases in cases are due to more testing, not further spread of the disease.

Acute Care bed utilization declined 2 out of the last 14 days, but the 3-day rolling average is 71%. The benchmark Gayles wants to see is 70%, so we are exceptionally close to that.

We have the capacity to test 3.2% of the population, above the CDC guideline of 2%. Gayles wants us to be able to test 5%, but hasn’t justified why we need to exceed the CDC’s guidelines.

So there’s your answer. Every single metric that shows burden of the disease on hospitals and spread of the disease is positive. Our testing capacity is strong. The contact tracing operation Hogan set up can handle 1,000 cases a day, above what Maryland has been doing, so it’s sufficient (and is continuing to be expanded).

Now, please show me where in the data suggests that MoCo is a hotspot that can’t be reopened.

I was pleased to see a reply, but a little disappointed when I saw it was from someone in the "reopen" camp. I agree with everyone you said, except perhaps the comment about testing capacity being strong. We're still not at where we ought to be with testing in Montgomery County. Unlike other parts of the state, you can't simply go somewhere to get tested if you're worried you may have been exposed. The testing constraints is reflected in the relatively percentage of test results coming back positive. It's definitely an area that's getting better, and I tend to think its good enough to warrant taking another step in reopening, but that's probably the area I'm most worried about. If you can't test people quickly, you can't contain the spread.

But, I know a lot of people that are still very strictly isolating themselves. I honestly don't understand what their "end game" is. Short of a vaccine, what would make them feel relatively comfortable about leaving the house?

Umm ... I seriously disagree with you. CDC guidelines say a 10% positive rate is good for reopening. We’re at 11%. We have testing sites all over the place, including at CVS, urgent care centers, etc. You don’t need a doctor’s order or symptoms.

I don’t mean this in a snarky way, but do you follow this closely? I do. I read virtually everything Mike Ricci and Kata Hall post. That’s how I know what our testing capacity is.

My wife is a doctor in MoCo, and a close friend was temporarily called in to a leadership position with the contact tracing efforts. They can't get tests for people. When people are desperate for a test, but not showing symptoms, all they can do is suggest they drive over to Six Flags. I'm not kdding. Regardless of what the numbers are, that doesn't sound like a stable situation to me.

Again, things are probably good enought to continue reopening efforts, but we've still got major testing challenging in Montgomery County.

Ok, so you agree we can continue reopening efforts, despite testing not being up to what you’d like. So you agree with me.

Testing has increased substantially in Maryland over the past 10 days. Your anecdotes aren’t consistent with the numbers.

To be clear, I wasn't talking about Maryland as a whole. I was talking about Montgomery County. And I wasn't claiming you can't get tests at all- I was saying we don't have enough test kits and supplies to test asymptomatic individuals that are simply worried they were exposed.

Hogan has claimed anyone that wants a test can get a test. That's simply not true in Montgomery County yet. And while I don't think that's critical to initial reopening stages, I think it's potentially a useful tool for identifying and isolating cases early.l, particularly in those individuals who may have done risky behavior.

The specific example that's come up recently are parents calling in trying to get tests for their kids that were involved in the protests. We don't have the tests in Montgomery County to be able to use them on those cases.

I just went to the CVS website and was able to make an appointment for a test as long as I checked the box for any symptoms. I checked that I did not have a doctor’s referral and was not prioritized by the local health authorities in any way.

I can make an appointment at 10am today for results in 2-4 days.

So I’m not getting what you’re talking about.

Thank you for confirming what I said. If you're asymptomatic, you can't get a test in MoCo.

You conveniently ignored my follow-up post. All you have to do is check the box for “cough” and you get a test.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Without lying that is.

The broader point is that we're still constrained on test kits and supplies in MoCo.

Ok. I don’t feel bad about lying about a cough to get a test if I feel I need one.

[Anonymous]

Lying about your health during a public health emergency seems like a great thing to broadly recommend.

Here's the frustrating thing to me about this discussion. I suspect you and I would probably agree on most points about what is appropriate public policy at this point. I personally believe that outside some hot spots (e.g., nursing homes, retirement communities, certain industries/workplaces, etc.), the county has made very good progress. Broad restrictions should be eased with more targeted efforts directed at the hot spots.

But, I do think we need to acknowledge where the difficulties lie. And I get frustrated when people seem unwilling to acknowledge information that doesnt fit perfectly with the narrative that supports their position.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
But, I do think we need to acknowledge where the difficulties lie. And I get frustrated when people seem unwilling to acknowledge information that doesnt fit perfectly with the narrative that supports their position.

And to be clear, when I wrote this, I wasn't trying to direct this at a particular side or a particular person. I think everyone is doing this. Myself included.

[Anonymous]

But it is a complete failure in Elrich’s leadership. It’s absurd that Six Flags has figured out how to get a significant number of tests butMoCo can’t.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Lying about your health during a public health emergency seems like a great thing to broadly recommend.

Here's the frustrating thing to me about this discussion. I suspect you and I would probably agree on most points about what is appropriate public policy at this point. I personally believe that outside some hot spots (e.g., nursing homes, retirement communities, certain industries/workplaces, etc.), the county has made very good progress. Broad restrictions should be eased with more targeted efforts directed at the hot spots.

But, I do think we need to acknowledge where the difficulties lie. And I get frustrated when people seem unwilling to acknowledge information that doesnt fit perfectly with the narrative that supports their position.

Sure — we have testing constraints. You’re absolutely right.

I recognize that lying about your health right now isn’t great, but if I were desperate for a test, I’d do it. It’s FAR from ideal, but it might be necessary for some.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:But it is a complete failure in Elrich’s leadership. It’s absurd that Six Flags has figured out how to get a significant number of tests butMoCo can’t.

I don't know this for certain, but I suspect the testing at Six Flags is using some of the Governor's 500k test kits from South Korea. The state controls where those test kits go.

So, while I strongly disliked Elrich even more all this, it's possible this particular problem is more on Hogan than Elrich