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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Ugh. I hope Elrich acts more cautiously. MoCo is a hotspot. [/quote]

Serious question: what would it take to *not* look like a hotspot in your eyes?  [/quote]

I’ll tell you! Let’s look at the dashboard Elrich and Gayles have set up to track the reopening metrics. As of today, here’s where we are:

All of these metrics have shown declines 14 out of the last 14 days:

- COVID hospitalizations
- COVID ER patients
- COVID ICU admissions
- ICU utilization rate 
- Ventilator use
- Test positivity

The last one is really important because, while cases have declined for 8 out of the last 14 days, positivity rate has declined for all 14 days, meaning increases in cases are due to more testing, not further spread of the disease.

Acute Care bed utilization declined 2 out of the last 14 days, but the 3-day rolling average is 71%. The benchmark Gayles wants to see is 70%, so we are exceptionally close to that.

We have the capacity to test 3.2% of the population, above the CDC guideline of 2%. Gayles wants us to be able to test 5%, but hasn’t justified why we need to exceed the CDC’s guidelines.

So there’s your answer. Every single metric that shows burden of the disease on hospitals and spread of the disease is positive. Our testing capacity is strong. The contact tracing operation Hogan set up can handle 1,000 cases a day, above what Maryland has been doing, so it’s sufficient (and is continuing to be expanded).

Now, please show me where in the data suggests that MoCo is a hotspot that can’t be reopened.[/quote]

I was pleased to see a reply, but a little disappointed when I saw it was from someone in the "reopen" camp.  I agree with everyone you said, except perhaps the comment about testing capacity being strong. We're still not at where we ought to be with testing in Montgomery County.  Unlike other parts of the state, you can't simply go somewhere to get tested if you're worried you may have been exposed.  The testing constraints is reflected in the relatively percentage of test results coming back positive.  It's definitely an area that's getting better, and I tend to think its good enough to warrant taking another step in reopening, but that's probably the area I'm most worried about.  If you can't test people quickly, you can't contain the spread.

But, I know a lot of people that are still very strictly isolating themselves.  I honestly don't understand what their "end game" is.  Short of a vaccine, what would make them feel relatively comfortable about leaving the house?[/quote]

Umm ... I seriously disagree with you. CDC guidelines say a 10% positive rate is good for reopening. We’re at 11%. We have testing sites all over the place, including at CVS, urgent care centers, etc. You don’t need a doctor’s order or symptoms.

I don’t mean this in a snarky way, but do you follow this closely? I do. I read virtually everything Mike Ricci and Kata Hall post. That’s how I know what our testing capacity is. [/quote]

My wife is a doctor in MoCo, and a close friend was temporarily called in to a leadership position with the contact tracing efforts.  They can't get tests for people.  When people are desperate for a test, but not showing symptoms, all they can do is suggest they drive over to Six Flags.  I'm not kdding.  Regardless of what the numbers are, that doesn't sound like a stable situation to me.

Again, things are probably good enought to continue reopening efforts, but we've still got major testing challenging in Montgomery County.

[/quote]

Ok, so you agree we can continue reopening efforts, despite testing not being up to what you’d like. So you agree with me. [/quote]

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