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[quote=Anonymous]OP here.  For the record, I'm neither a UVA hater nor a MD booster.  I'm a Virginian whose class of 2018 dd had the stats to attend both UVA and William and Mary.  I was open to both schools, but I admit I did suggest to her that W&M was a better choice for the undergraduate student of the humanities and pure sciences, if only because of it's human scale and the close contact with the faculty that that provides.  She chose W&M.  If she had chosen UVA, I would have been fine with that since her probable major is an unusual one with a small, excellent department at UVA.  Just guiding her through the process was fascinating, tho stressful.  I learned a lot and hence this thread.

It is possible, certainly, that an avalanche of international students will enable UVA to continue to march ahead.  I'm skeptical, however.  The number of international students in the US has fallen with the advent of the Trump administration.  Further, why wouldn't the political pressures as you cite in CA also be applicable in VA if UVA were to try to drastically increase it's number of full pay international students?

The point of the bell curve is that there are only so many students of exceptional ability.  These students drive selectivity.  There is more competition for them than ever before, both among publics and privates.  If UVA manages to increase it's instate apps, it will not be among those highly talented students.  They already go to UVA at what I think will be seen to be a maximum rate.  Anecdotally, I personally know two students who graduated from FCPS recently with stats at the higher end of the UVA range.  One went to BC, another to Tulane, both with significant merit aid.  This is the new reality I'm talking about -- it affects even in state students.

People seem to think that there is an endless supply out there somewhere (China) of brilliant kids who will push American schools to greater and greater glory.  I just don't think that's true and I don't see it happening.  
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