Is there really an enrollment cliff?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How did it get so lopsided when it comes to the college admissions rat race??? I hear a lot of parents blaming the Common App but is that really the root cause of this insanity? These kids are taking double digit AP courses, aiming for above 1500 or 35 on standardized tests, and belting out more essays than humanly expected from top writers in the world in the matter of a few months. What is wrong with our culture on this?

It's also a particularly bad rat race if you are a NoVa kid gunning for UVA. I get why people do it, but it really is a lot of pressure for these kids. My kid has no interest in UVA and luckily we can afford to say he doesn't have to even consider it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This admissions season has been brutal for my middle. (Same was true two years ago with my oldest.) My youngest two are 2030 and 2032 high school grads. I keep hearing that it'll be better for them because of the "enrollment cliff". Is that really true? Because I'm not sure our family is up to managing two more rounds of this insanity.

It's coming but this class won't be impacted that much. Numbers are back to the same as 2024 which was still a high year, just not as high as last year the tippy top.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This admissions season has been brutal for my middle. (Same was true two years ago with my oldest.) My youngest two are 2030 and 2032 high school grads. I keep hearing that it'll be better for them because of the "enrollment cliff". Is that really true? Because I'm not sure our family is up to managing two more rounds of this insanity.

It's coming but this class won't be impacted that much. Numbers are back to the same as 2024 which was still a high year, just not as high as last year the tippy top.

Yep. I have a 2024 HS grad and a current senior. Mine fared well, but kids’ friends that seemed very similar (top grades/scores, etc) were brutalized. Lots of WLs for many too.

[Anonymous]

Honestly the amount of pressure and stress these kids are facing added to the threat of world where any entry-level job opportunity is at risk due to AI, what are we even fighting for?! I feel like telling my kids to go travel the world, find odd jobs to help you with food+lodging and then figure out how you can be happy. This race is ridiculous.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This admissions season has been brutal for my middle. (Same was true two years ago with my oldest.) My youngest two are 2030 and 2032 high school grads. I keep hearing that it'll be better for them because of the "enrollment cliff". Is that really true? Because I'm not sure our family is up to managing two more rounds of this insanity.

Sounds like you and your family don’t know how to build a balanced list. People forget but there are schools outside of the US News T25 national universities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Honestly the amount of pressure and stress these kids are facing added to the threat of world where any entry-level job opportunity is at risk due to AI, what are we even fighting for?! I feel like telling my kids to go travel the world, find odd jobs to help you with food+lodging and then figure out how you can be happy. This race is ridiculous.

Ha! That’s what I did tell my kid. My college sophomore is on study abroad and loving it. He is seriously thinking of staying over there- transferring to European university. He’s already working an internship and playing a sport over there and assimilated to an entire network outside of the school.

You are only young once. In this sh@t world they should just live out their dreams, try everything.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How did it get so lopsided when it comes to the college admissions rat race??? I hear a lot of parents blaming the Common App but is that really the root cause of this insanity? These kids are taking double digit AP courses, aiming for above 1500 or 35 on standardized tests, and belting out more essays than humanly expected from top writers in the world in the matter of a few months. What is wrong with our culture on this?

There are a couple of factors:

Starting about 30-35 years ago we began importing a huge population of Asian tech workers who came from a very status/rank conscious culture and are pushing their kids into a small subset of schools which are known among their social circles.

Common app now makes it easy to apply broadly which wasn't the case when we were making school choices.

Internet, social media, etc. makes awareness much easier.

Each of these factors is driving increased applications to top schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes and no. Yes there is a reduction in the number of 18 year olds but other factors make competition worse.

Think of the number of applicants as demand and the number of seats as supply. For demand, yes the overall potential pool of applicants is slight smaller. However there is a funneling effect forcing even higher demand in some schools and gutting it in others.

1. Cost. The cost is so high now that many people are seeking in state options, schools that award merit etc. The economic disasters under Trump (thanks MAGA) redirected many kids who would have selected LACS or non T20 privates into state schools.
2.Admissions. It is so non transparent and unpredictable that kids have to apply to many more schools than they did in the past to protect against getting shut out.
3. Admitting by major or akin to major. Students are funneling into STEM.
4. Less differentiation between high performing students and low performing students. Grade inflation at low performing schools presents 4.0 students without the ability to write an essay or handle middle school math. Those kids probably have a much higher acceptance rate than a kid from a rigorous school.

Supply
1. The trend toward using proxy geographic zip code, parent education and low ranking school to hit racial and socioeconomic diversity means that for your particular demographic and location there are fewer seats available. Your kid may have a 1% chance while another kid may have a 60% chance.
2. Increase in international admits paying higher fees as reduced supply.
3. Need to pivot toward full pay students while protecting yield means more seats will be given to ED students.

Basically all of the above is incorrect or lacking context.

[Anonymous]

It's not going to make much of a difference for the most sought-after schools . . . so not for the typical DCUM high-achievers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How did it get so lopsided when it comes to the college admissions rat race??? I hear a lot of parents blaming the Common App but is that really the root cause of this insanity? These kids are taking double digit AP courses, aiming for above 1500 or 35 on standardized tests, and belting out more essays than humanly expected from top writers in the world in the matter of a few months. What is wrong with our culture on this?

It's also a particularly bad rat race if you are a NoVa kid gunning for UVA. I get why people do it, but it really is a lot of pressure for these kids. My kid has no interest in UVA and luckily we can afford to say he doesn't have to even consider it.

A college education isn’t in the cards for every child.

[Anonymous]

Changes in demographics are not going to affect the well-known schools. There's a funneling effect going on, which is largely due to price.

The top 25 or so private schools tend to be very good with financial aid so they are generally accessible for bright students from any income level - if they get in.

And alternatively, the state flagships are usually the best deal for smart kids. And most state flagships have "honors" programs these days to make State U a desirable place for smart kids.

The competition for these schools - top 25 and state flagships - is going to become more fierce in the years ahead.

But there are more than 4000 colleges in the US. The changes in demographics are really going to impact the bottom 3000 schools. Many private liberal arts colleges will shut down. And there will be more consolidation in the state college systems.

That doesn't mean it's going to get any easier to get into Duke or Michigan though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes and no. Yes there is a reduction in the number of 18 year olds but other factors make competition worse.
. . .


1. The trend toward using proxy geographic zip code, parent education and low ranking school to hit racial and socioeconomic diversity means that for your particular demographic and location there are fewer seats available. Your kid may have a 1% chance while another kid may have a 60% chance.
2. Increase in international admits paying higher fees as reduced supply.
3. Need to pivot toward full pay students while protecting yield means more seats will be given to ED students.

This is true, particularly since:

1) the S.Ct decision in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard means universities cannot lawfully use a student’s race as a factor, but they are allowed to use a “proxy” for race to achieve diversity goals, by looking at the racial makeup of the students’ high school, and

2) full-tuition US-based students are increasingly crucial to universities with the threat of impediments to enrollment of international students (who are full-pay).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This admissions season has been brutal for my middle. (Same was true two years ago with my oldest.) My youngest two are 2030 and 2032 high school grads. I keep hearing that it'll be better for them because of the "enrollment cliff". Is that really true? Because I'm not sure our family is up to managing two more rounds of this insanity.

You shoulda thought of that when you decided to conceive in 2011/2012 or 2013/2014. Too late.

Yes, breeders can’t be choosers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This admissions season has been brutal for my middle. (Same was true two years ago with my oldest.) My youngest two are 2030 and 2032 high school grads. I keep hearing that it'll be better for them because of the "enrollment cliff". Is that really true? Because I'm not sure our family is up to managing two more rounds of this insanity.

There will be no enrollment cliff for top schools.

This. And most of DCUM look at the top colleges.

Lower tier colleges might well loosen standards to fill seats so they do not go under financially.