Reply to Is there really an enrollment cliff?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Yes and no. Yes there is a reduction in the number of 18 year olds but other factors make competition worse.

Think of the number of applicants as demand and the number of seats as supply. For demand, yes the overall potential pool of applicants is slight smaller. However there is a funneling effect forcing even higher demand in some schools and gutting it in others.

1. Cost. The cost is so high now that many people are seeking in state options, schools that award merit etc. The economic disasters under Trump (thanks MAGA) redirected many kids who would have selected LACS or non T20 privates into state schools. 
2.Admissions. It is so non transparent and unpredictable that kids have to apply to many more schools than they did in the past to protect against getting shut out. 
3. Admitting by major or akin to major. Students are funneling into STEM.
4. Less differentiation between high performing students and low performing students. Grade inflation at low performing schools presents 4.0 students without the ability to write an essay or handle middle school math. Those kids probably have a much higher acceptance rate than a kid from a rigorous school.

Supply
1. The trend toward using proxy geographic zip code, parent education and low ranking school to hit racial and socioeconomic diversity means that for your particular demographic and location there are fewer seats available. Your kid may have a 1% chance while another kid may have a 60% chance. 
2. Increase in international admits paying higher fees as reduced supply. 
3. Need to pivot toward full pay students while protecting yield means more seats will be given to ED students.

[/quote]

Basically all of the above is incorrect or lacking context.[/quote]

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