Is there really an enrollment cliff?

[Anonymous]

This admissions season has been brutal for my middle. (Same was true two years ago with my oldest.) My youngest two are 2030 and 2032 high school grads. I keep hearing that it'll be better for them because of the "enrollment cliff". Is that really true? Because I'm not sure our family is up to managing two more rounds of this insanity.

[Anonymous]

The enrollment cliff will help some places (with higher admit rates) and not others (the very selective schools will stay selective), at least that is the speculation.

Curious about the brutal season though bc very few places have released decisions? And sorry to hear that!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This admissions season has been brutal for my middle. (Same was true two years ago with my oldest.) My youngest two are 2030 and 2032 high school grads. I keep hearing that it'll be better for them because of the "enrollment cliff". Is that really true? Because I'm not sure our family is up to managing two more rounds of this insanity.

There will be no enrollment cliff for top schools.

[Anonymous]

How brutal can it be? We just started application season and ED isn’t even out- unless your kid got rejected from Questbridge.


The enrollment cliff will make easy to get into schools even easier, but it was never expected for competitive schools to suddenly become easy.

[Anonymous]

It won't be drastic enough to help you with admissions at a competitive school. If your odds go from 15% to 20%, it's doubtful you'll change your whole strategy? Meanwhile it will still be very easy to get into Third-Tier-Regional-U, and I would assume you still won't apply.

[Anonymous]

NO. There is a gentle demographic slope, not a cliff, and no, the most selective institutions will not see any sort of enrollment change, since they could fill their freshman class several times over with top-notch applicants. Some colleges will close due to financial difficulties. The big institutions will thrive, as always.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This admissions season has been brutal for my middle. (Same was true two years ago with my oldest.) My youngest two are 2030 and 2032 high school grads. I keep hearing that it'll be better for them because of the "enrollment cliff". Is that really true? Because I'm not sure our family is up to managing two more rounds of this insanity.

You shoulda thought of that when you decided to conceive in 2011/2012 or 2013/2014. Too late.

[Anonymous]

Probably the SLAC admissions rates will go up. Everyone else will still be the arms race it is today. A way to moderate the stupidity we see is a max number common app you can spray across the college universe. Make it like the good old days. You have to do one app per school. Bust out the typewriter and see how application numbers fall.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Probably the SLAC admissions rates will go up. Everyone else will still be the arms race it is today. A way to moderate the stupidity we see is a max number common app you can spray across the college universe. Make it like the good old days. You have to do one app per school. Bust out the typewriter and see how application numbers fall.

Why would SLAC admissions rates go up? Top SLACs are as hard as their R1 peers. They could fill their classes many times over without issue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The enrollment cliff will help some places (with higher admit rates) and not others (the very selective schools will stay selective), at least that is the speculation.

Curious about the brutal season though bc very few places have released decisions? And sorry to hear that!

OP here. My kid has been at the essays since some time in the summer, even more the prompts were released. It's write-rewrite-write-some-more-rewrite-what-you-wrote. I feel for the kid. ED is UVA and as a NoVA kid, that's a needle in haystack who will get the spot. It's been a challenge to keep motivation high because there's a long road left. Kid has been working supplemental essays in prep for a potential rejection and there's still a long road ahead. I'm just exhausted and I can't even imagine how kid is really handling the stress.

[Anonymous]

Yes and no. Yes there is a reduction in the number of 18 year olds but other factors make competition worse.

Think of the number of applicants as demand and the number of seats as supply. For demand, yes the overall potential pool of applicants is slight smaller. However there is a funneling effect forcing even higher demand in some schools and gutting it in others.

1. Cost. The cost is so high now that many people are seeking in state options, schools that award merit etc. The economic disasters under Trump (thanks MAGA) redirected many kids who would have selected LACS or non T20 privates into state schools.
2.Admissions. It is so non transparent and unpredictable that kids have to apply to many more schools than they did in the past to protect against getting shut out.
3. Admitting by major or akin to major. Students are funneling into STEM.
4. Less differentiation between high performing students and low performing students. Grade inflation at low performing schools presents 4.0 students without the ability to write an essay or handle middle school math. Those kids probably have a much higher acceptance rate than a kid from a rigorous school.

Supply
1. The trend toward using proxy geographic zip code, parent education and low ranking school to hit racial and socioeconomic diversity means that for your particular demographic and location there are fewer seats available. Your kid may have a 1% chance while another kid may have a 60% chance.
2. Increase in international admits paying higher fees as reduced supply.
3. Need to pivot toward full pay students while protecting yield means more seats will be given to ED students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The enrollment cliff will help some places (with higher admit rates) and not others (the very selective schools will stay selective), at least that is the speculation.

Curious about the brutal season though bc very few places have released decisions? And sorry to hear that!

OP here. My kid has been at the essays since some time in the summer, even more the prompts were released. It's write-rewrite-write-some-more-rewrite-what-you-wrote. I feel for the kid. ED is UVA and as a NoVA kid, that's a needle in haystack who will get the spot. It's been a challenge to keep motivation high because there's a long road left. Kid has been working supplemental essays in prep for a potential rejection and there's still a long road ahead. I'm just exhausted and I can't even imagine how kid is really handling the stress.

My oldest had a breakdown second semester of senior year, because his application and essay burden had been too much for him (and he didn't even apply to a lot of schools, but this is a kid who can't handle much).

So yes, these things happen. It will not get better for your younger children.

[Anonymous]

How did it get so lopsided when it comes to the college admissions rat race??? I hear a lot of parents blaming the Common App but is that really the root cause of this insanity? These kids are taking double digit AP courses, aiming for above 1500 or 35 on standardized tests, and belting out more essays than humanly expected from top writers in the world in the matter of a few months. What is wrong with our culture on this?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How did it get so lopsided when it comes to the college admissions rat race??? I hear a lot of parents blaming the Common App but is that really the root cause of this insanity? These kids are taking double digit AP courses, aiming for above 1500 or 35 on standardized tests, and belting out more essays than humanly expected from top writers in the world in the matter of a few months. What is wrong with our culture on this?

It's what a PP above described.

Too many white, UMC kids from college-educated parents in large metro areas competing for fewer spots designated for this type of kid than were available back in Gen X application days.

Kids applying to upwards of 20 schools instead of 4 like we did back in our day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How did it get so lopsided when it comes to the college admissions rat race??? I hear a lot of parents blaming the Common App but is that really the root cause of this insanity? These kids are taking double digit AP courses, aiming for above 1500 or 35 on standardized tests, and belting out more essays than humanly expected from top writers in the world in the matter of a few months. What is wrong with our culture on this?

The USA is behind on this worldwide social phenomenon, actually. Japan, Korea and China have been suffering from college admissions rat race for years. Over there it's far worse than here! There is also severe competition in India for the best universities, and in Europe as well.

I think the college admissions competition is a mirror of societal and economic tension. In the boom years of the American economy, people didn't need to stress overmuch. They knew they'd find a job that could support a family. Now it's different, and there's hyper-specialization because it's harder to make ends meet at the entry level jobs. This economic reality started much earlier elsewhere in the world, hence why competition to get into college was already fierce in Japan decades ago. I remember my 40-something Japanese cousins suffering a lot from that.