Rankings App

[Anonymous]

Again, all the ranking app care about is if a team scores more of less than the expected outcome.

If you were looking at this from a gambling perspective the ranking app is a baseline only. Things like which team is traveling, sick, hurt, etc aren't accounted for (before the game). After the game things like traveling, sick, hurt, etc would play a role in number of goals scored. Which would lower/increase the teams ranking and change the expected outcome.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Again, all the ranking app care about is if a team scores more of less than the expected outcome.

If you were looking at this from a gambling perspective the ranking app is a baseline only. Things like which team is traveling, sick, hurt, etc aren't accounted for (before the game). After the game things like traveling, sick, hurt, etc would play a role in number of goals scored. Which would lower/increase the teams ranking and change the expected outcome.

and guess what? the things you mentioned fall into the randomness part. And yet, the top team still wins at a high frequency probably above the randomness component.

Is it perfect? - hell no and it shouldn't be. It gives you a REALLY GOOD IDEA of a team's level especially when considered over the course of a season.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Again, all the ranking app care about is if a team scores more of less than the expected outcome.

If you were looking at this from a gambling perspective the ranking app is a baseline only. Things like which team is traveling, sick, hurt, etc aren't accounted for (before the game). After the game things like traveling, sick, hurt, etc would play a role in number of goals scored. Which would lower/increase the teams ranking and change the expected outcome.

and guess what? the things you mentioned fall into the randomness part. And yet, the top team still wins at a high frequency probably above the randomness component.

Is it perfect? - hell no and it shouldn't be. It gives you a REALLY GOOD IDEA of a team's level especially when considered over the course of a season.

If a team wins a lot their expected outcome will be very high. Basically the more you win the harder it is to go up in ranking because you'll be playing against teams that also consistently win. Which means your games will end in the expected outcome more often than not.

To go up in ranking what you want is to play against a team that's hot and cold and cautch them with a blow out when they first start going down.

One of the big issues with the ranking app is it forces really good teams that are playing really bad teams to blow them out to hit the expected number of goals. Usually when coaches get up by 5 goals coaches are expected to play the bench. But with the ranking app if they do this it potentially hurts their ranking.

[Anonymous]

I don't understand how it works across different leagues when these teams rarely play each other.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Again, all the ranking app care about is if a team scores more of less than the expected outcome.

If you were looking at this from a gambling perspective the ranking app is a baseline only. Things like which team is traveling, sick, hurt, etc aren't accounted for (before the game). After the game things like traveling, sick, hurt, etc would play a role in number of goals scored. Which would lower/increase the teams ranking and change the expected outcome.

and guess what? the things you mentioned fall into the randomness part. And yet, the top team still wins at a high frequency probably above the randomness component.

Is it perfect? - hell no and it shouldn't be. It gives you a REALLY GOOD IDEA of a team's level especially when considered over the course of a season.

If a team wins a lot their expected outcome will be very high. Basically the more you win the harder it is to go up in ranking because you'll be playing against teams that also consistently win. Which means your games will end in the expected outcome more often than not.

To go up in ranking what you want is to play against a team that's hot and cold and cautch them with a blow out when they first start going down.

One of the big issues with the ranking app is it forces really good teams that are playing really bad teams to blow them out to hit the expected number of goals. Usually when coaches get up by 5 goals coaches are expected to play the bench. But with the ranking app if they do this it potentially hurts their ranking.

Agree to an extent - it does penalize teams for playing weak schedules. Play good teams and you don't HAVE to win by much or at all!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand how it works across different leagues when these teams rarely play each other.

Not sure how mathematically inclined you are, but it essentially measures EVERY game. When you do that, you can build a bigger graph and assess strength of schedule. Do this with a giant dataset and they don't have to play each other often to get a good measurement of how strong they are. It's what many college/hs/even gaming ranking algorithms do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand how it works across different leagues when these teams rarely play each other.

Not sure how mathematically inclined you are, but it essentially measures EVERY game. When you do that, you can build a bigger graph and assess strength of schedule. Do this with a giant dataset and they don't have to play each other often to get a good measurement of how strong they are. It's what many college/hs/even gaming ranking algorithms do.

Although this is generally true, the more indirect the comparison is between two teams, the more variability there will be to the comparison and the app will tend to be less accurate to predict a game between the two teams. Estimates within the same league are very accurate, but comparisons between leagues, or even between teams of different years (let's say when a team plays up in a tournament) will be less accurate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand how it works across different leagues when these teams rarely play each other.

Not sure how mathematically inclined you are, but it essentially measures EVERY game. When you do that, you can build a bigger graph and assess strength of schedule. Do this with a giant dataset and they don't have to play each other often to get a good measurement of how strong they are. It's what many college/hs/even gaming ranking algorithms do.

Although this is generally true, the more indirect the comparison is between two teams, the more variability there will be to the comparison and the app will tend to be less accurate to predict a game between the two teams. Estimates within the same league are very accurate, but comparisons between leagues, or even between teams of different years (let's say when a team plays up in a tournament) will be less accurate.

This is correct. If two teams play each other a lot the expected outcome will be pretty good. If teams dont play each other a lot (and the teams they play dont play each other a lot) the expected outcome will be less accurate.

[Anonymous]

What do parents use these rankings apps for?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is some good evidence. I just looked at teams playing in the girls ECNL finals starting tomorrow - should be some of the best teams in the country right?

Choose U15 (2010s) as an example. And yes they are. Teams are ranked in Soccer Rankings as follows:
#1
#2
#4
#5
#7
#10
#11
#13

Yes but it's somewhat circular. The wins that those teams had in the last few weeks to get to the finals helped to boost their current rankings. In other words they are ranked high BECAUSE they are in the finals. Still, the rankings are useful as a blunt instrument just don't think there is a meaningful difference between the #1 and #13 ranked teams.

The ranking app doesnt care about finals. All the matters is if a team scores more or less than the expected number of goals.

I wasn't suggesting it cares that the games are called "finals". But the teams that are in the "finals" all played and won their last 4 games against other highly ranked teams. That helped their current rankings. The current rankings (which are recomputed regularly) take into account those last 4 wins. It's basically impossible to make it as far as the finals and not be a top ranked team by virtue of winning all those games including the games that qualified them for the champions league. Circular logic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is some good evidence. I just looked at teams playing in the girls ECNL finals starting tomorrow - should be some of the best teams in the country right?

Choose U15 (2010s) as an example. And yes they are. Teams are ranked in Soccer Rankings as follows:
#1
#2
#4
#5
#7
#10
#11
#13

Yes but it's somewhat circular. The wins that those teams had in the last few weeks to get to the finals helped to boost their current rankings. In other words they are ranked high BECAUSE they are in the finals. Still, the rankings are useful as a blunt instrument just don't think there is a meaningful difference between the #1 and #13 ranked teams.

The ranking app doesnt care about finals. All the matters is if a team scores more or less than the expected number of goals.

I wasn't suggesting it cares that the games are called "finals". But the teams that are in the "finals" all played and won their last 4 games against other highly ranked teams. That helped their current rankings. The current rankings (which are recomputed regularly) take into account those last 4 wins. It's basically impossible to make it as far as the finals and not be a top re anked team by virtue of winning all those games including the games that qualified them for the champions league. Circular logic.

Again, the ranking app doesnt care who you win or lose to. All that matters is that you win by more or less than the expected outcome.

The teams playing against each other in finals likely have 1-1 expected outcomes which means if the final scores is 3-1 the team that won up by 3 goals which was 2 more than expected will go up in ranking. The team that lost but scored 1 goal will stay the same ranking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What do parents use these rankings apps for?

They're nosy? My kid loves when I give a little scouting report. They're definitely more useful for tournament directors/coaches, but kids aren't dumb. They want to know what the competition looks like. It's also a bit of an incentive when you beat a higher ranked team like any other ranking system.

Far better than beating a random crappy team 8-0 and celebrating like you won the WC

[Anonymous]

Oh and thinking about the tournament director's aspect. If more tournaments blindly followed the app for flighting, you'd see FAR less blowouts. Of course there are "reasons" why flights are the way they are, but if a random parent can tell you the flight winner before the tournament starts, your tournament sucks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Oh and thinking about the tournament director's aspect. If more tournaments blindly followed the app for flighting, you'd see FAR less blowouts. Of course there are "reasons" why flights are the way they are, but if a random parent can tell you the flight winner before the tournament starts, your tournament sucks.

and shame on me for saying less instead of fewer - my bad!

[Anonymous]

Something good that the ranking app is doing. In my opinion. Is its's tearing down the walls between leagues. Also its making events like finals less important unless participating ups your ranking. Theres going to be a time when highly ranked teams decline things like finals if theres no way to up their ranking. Especially if theres travel/expenses involved. (The ranking app doesn't count forfeits against teams in regard to ranking. The game is thrown out no matter how leagues record them)