Fellow PK3 newbies, post your lottery nerves here!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know if there was a birthing boom for first children during the pandemic, but anecdotally people of my acquaintance who already had a child when the pandemic tended to delay having a second, third, etc. (or decided to stick with one). Probably because finding consistent
childcare was super challenging. So I have a theory that there may be fewer kids with sibling preference entering the lottery over the next couple years….

That’s a good point. It’ll be interesting to see how the data on these next two years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Preferences didn't change this year - what do you mean "less availability"? You're dealing with the same preferences that we all have.

Perhaps OP means that they aren't eligible for Equitable Access preferences, which are rolling out to more schools this year and likely reduce the number of non-preference seats? I don't think it's really enough to make a noticeable difference, but that's the only change I can think of.

Yeah I saw someone mentioned in a post that YY would have less seats due to increased equitable access and how other schools were introducing it too.

FWIW, schools that implemented EA last year don't appear to have filled all of those spots. I wonder if that is likely to continue.

[Anonymous]

We can still reorder the list until 3/15, right? We would love to be at Inspired Teaching but thinking of delaying the commute for a few more years. Currently list is:

Breakthrough
Sela
Takoma

But keeping a few others at the bottom in case we want to re-order- cap city and Inspired Teaching.

[Anonymous]

Where do they list the number of ea spots in the upcoming lottery?

[Anonymous]

Solidarity! First time PK3 here too!

I agonized a lot about the decision between our local IB (Tubman) vs trying to get into a good middle school path since we’re in our forever home (ITS was our top pick), and decided to just go with Tubman. I’ve heard great things, know several people there who are happy, and really look forward to meeting more neighborhood kids (and a short commute).

But I do have this fear that in 5 years, we’ll have struck out in the lottery 3-4 years in a row, and I’ll be stressed and kicking myself for letting this year go by without even trying.

We also have 2 (and hopefully one day 3) so one day that sibling preference will hopefully be our saving grace. We just need one good number for one kid one time, right?

Anyway, I feel your stress. I also have this sinking feeling like I did my application wrong and we’ll get nothing.

I try and remind myself that this is just the beginning of the loss of control over our kids’ lives and futures, so I need to get comfortable with that. I try and focus on the faith I have in my kid: he can handle what life throws at him, be it a crappy PK3 option or the inevitable bigger issues down the road.

[Anonymous]

Things to keep in mind (in no particular order):

Enjoy the free PK3 and 4. This is unique to DC. Do the math on the $ you are not paying for daycare and then do the math on average market returns for that money over 14 years. DC is essentially subsidizing college if you view it that way.

DC does ECE very well at many, many schools. While you may not feel your PS3 match is a long term solution, it will no doubt provide a good to great ECE experience and foundation for your kid.

Lots of people don't get the schools they want in PS3, PK4 or even K. Most people end up where they want to be (or at a place they are happy with) by the time ES gets real. Even if you "strike out" this year, there's hope.

The school you "want" and is "perfect" isn't. The school you are certain gets you through ES may not when you see the upper grades. Lots of people who thought they were good through MS realized in upper ES that their ES fell down and that the MS path wasn't viable. Point being, even if you think you are missing out, you may not be.

By the time your kid is ready for MS or HS you may not even be living in the same house or same city. Worrying about 10 years from now isn't productive. Which is not to say you shouldn't consider it in your ranking, but don't lose sleep over it.

You don't know who or what your kid will be. Is Deal a good fit for them? ITS? BASIS? Latin? Worrying about what is the right fit for a 3 year old is a fool's errand.

Once you set your list it is out of your control. Do your best to leave it alone. Don't read DCUM (irony alert, I know). It will only stress you out.

Don't talk sh*t about schools in front of your kid. If your kid ends up at a school you don't really want that will inform how they view themselves and their school. Young kids also repeat info, so even if your kid isn't at that school there are lot of uncomfortable play dates and playground situations where small kids tell other kids their mom thinks their school is terrible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My 3yo was born pre pandemic (Jan 2020). I’m pretty sure we’ll get into our in bounds school (it’s not popular for non locals) and if not we’ll stay at our daycare. Honestly not terribly excited to start having to deal with all the random days off/summer camps/etc. 🤷‍♀️

Yeah mine is early access so it’s guaranteed as long as you enter it during the lottery. That’s a really good point about summer camps and days off. I’m so used to just taking him to daycare year-round so it will be an adjustment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Solidarity! First time PK3 here too!

I agonized a lot about the decision between our local IB (Tubman) vs trying to get into a good middle school path since we’re in our forever home (ITS was our top pick), and decided to just go with Tubman. I’ve heard great things, know several people there who are happy, and really look forward to meeting more neighborhood kids (and a short commute).

But I do have this fear that in 5 years, we’ll have struck out in the lottery 3-4 years in a row, and I’ll be stressed and kicking myself for letting this year go by without even trying.

We also have 2 (and hopefully one day 3) so one day that sibling preference will hopefully be our saving grace. We just need one good number for one kid one time, right?

Anyway, I feel your stress. I also have this sinking feeling like I did my application wrong and we’ll get nothing.

I try and remind myself that this is just the beginning of the loss of control over our kids’ lives and futures, so I need to get comfortable with that. I try and focus on the faith I have in my kid: he can handle what life throws at him, be it a crappy PK3 option or the inevitable bigger issues down the road.

All very sensible! You will get ITS eventually if you keep trying, it's not like it's so good that nobody ever leaves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where do they list the number of ea spots in the upcoming lottery?

I'm not sure that's published in advance, but you can see last year''s here https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

It does seem that many schools did not fill their EA spots, but that may change as it becomes better known and the initial round of EA kids' siblings come of age to lottery.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We can still reorder the list until 3/15, right? We would love to be at Inspired Teaching but thinking of delaying the commute for a few more years. Currently list is:

Breakthrough
Sela
Takoma

But keeping a few others at the bottom in case we want to re-order- cap city and Inspired Teaching.

Yes, you can edit schools until tonight at 11:59 and can edit the rankings through 3/15

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Solidarity! First time PK3 here too!

I agonized a lot about the decision between our local IB (Tubman) vs trying to get into a good middle school path since we’re in our forever home (ITS was our top pick), and decided to just go with Tubman. I’ve heard great things, know several people there who are happy, and really look forward to meeting more neighborhood kids (and a short commute).

But I do have this fear that in 5 years, we’ll have struck out in the lottery 3-4 years in a row, and I’ll be stressed and kicking myself for letting this year go by without even trying.

We also have 2 (and hopefully one day 3) so one day that sibling preference will hopefully be our saving grace. We just need one good number for one kid one time, right?

Anyway, I feel your stress. I also have this sinking feeling like I did my application wrong and we’ll get nothing.

I try and remind myself that this is just the beginning of the loss of control over our kids’ lives and futures, so I need to get comfortable with that. I try and focus on the faith I have in my kid: he can handle what life throws at him, be it a crappy PK3 option or the inevitable bigger issues down the road.

Yes!! I just worry that I did something wrong with my selections and rankings too. I never thought about it as the beginning of the loss of control and that’s so true, we’ve been able to sort of dictate how our children’s lives are wrt childcare and this is really hard to kind of just *hope* and leave it entirely up to chance but we can all lottery multiple years if needed.

This entire thread has surprisingly made me feel better when I thought I would still be super stressed. Thanks to everyone who posted and helped me refocus and see the good in having him start school soon, wherever he may land.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Things to keep in mind (in no particular order):

Enjoy the free PK3 and 4. This is unique to DC. Do the math on the $ you are not paying for daycare and then do the math on average market returns for that money over 14 years. DC is essentially subsidizing college if you view it that way.

DC does ECE very well at many, many schools. While you may not feel your PS3 match is a long term solution, it will no doubt provide a good to great ECE experience and foundation for your kid.

Lots of people don't get the schools they want in PS3, PK4 or even K. Most people end up where they want to be (or at a place they are happy with) by the time ES gets real. Even if you "strike out" this year, there's hope.

The school you "want" and is "perfect" isn't. The school you are certain gets you through ES may not when you see the upper grades. Lots of people who thought they were good through MS realized in upper ES that their ES fell down and that the MS path wasn't viable. Point being, even if you think you are missing out, you may not be.

By the time your kid is ready for MS or HS you may not even be living in the same house or same city. Worrying about 10 years from now isn't productive. Which is not to say you shouldn't consider it in your ranking, but don't lose sleep over it.

You don't know who or what your kid will be. Is Deal a good fit for them? ITS? BASIS? Latin? Worrying about what is the right fit for a 3 year old is a fool's errand.

Once you set your list it is out of your control. Do your best to leave it alone. Don't read DCUM (irony alert, I know). It will only stress you out.

Don't talk sh*t about schools in front of your kid. If your kid ends up at a school you don't really want that will inform how they view themselves and their school. Young kids also repeat info, so even if your kid isn't at that school there are lot of uncomfortable play dates and playground situations where small kids tell other kids their mom thinks their school is terrible.

Thank you. This was one of the posts that really had me taking some breaths and realizing this is a good thing and he’ll be just fine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Things to keep in mind (in no particular order):

Enjoy the free PK3 and 4. This is unique to DC. Do the math on the $ you are not paying for daycare and then do the math on average market returns for that money over 14 years. DC is essentially subsidizing college if you view it that way.

DC does ECE very well at many, many schools. While you may not feel your PS3 match is a long term solution, it will no doubt provide a good to great ECE experience and foundation for your kid.

Lots of people don't get the schools they want in PS3, PK4 or even K. Most people end up where they want to be (or at a place they are happy with) by the time ES gets real. Even if you "strike out" this year, there's hope.

The school you "want" and is "perfect" isn't. The school you are certain gets you through ES may not when you see the upper grades. Lots of people who thought they were good through MS realized in upper ES that their ES fell down and that the MS path wasn't viable. Point being, even if you think you are missing out, you may not be.

By the time your kid is ready for MS or HS you may not even be living in the same house or same city. Worrying about 10 years from now isn't productive. Which is not to say you shouldn't consider it in your ranking, but don't lose sleep over it.

You don't know who or what your kid will be. Is Deal a good fit for them? ITS? BASIS? Latin? Worrying about what is the right fit for a 3 year old is a fool's errand.

Once you set your list it is out of your control. Do your best to leave it alone. Don't read DCUM (irony alert, I know). It will only stress you out.

Don't talk sh*t about schools in front of your kid. If your kid ends up at a school you don't really want that will inform how they view themselves and their school. Young kids also repeat info, so even if your kid isn't at that school there are lot of uncomfortable play dates and playground situations where small kids tell other kids their mom thinks their school is terrible.

Thank you. This was one of the posts that really had me taking some breaths and realizing this is a good thing and he’ll be just fine.

You're welcome. Now remove the bookmark to DCUM. Seriously. If you must return, wait until March 31 when the results are released.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there really a birthing boom? Cite?

OP here. I just did a quick google search and found the articles below. While not super significant, it’s hard for first-time parents/parents of 1 child with all of the preferences allowed to siblings trying to get the few available positions per school.

https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2022/06/the-pandemic-baby-bust-and-rebound

“Kearney spoke at a recent webinar hosted by the National Academies’ Societal Experts Action Network (SEAN) and Committee on Population that explored how the pandemic affected birth rates in the U.S., along with longer-term trends in birth rates.

Added to peoples’ economic concerns, she said, was a public health crisis that might lead them to worry about health implications and the ability to access medical facilities. The closest comparable event is the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918-1919, which led to a large decrease in birth rates despite the absence of modern contraceptives.

By analyzing data on birth rates for late 2020 and 2021, Kearney and her colleagues calculated that there were 62,000 fewer conceptions than usual during the first few months of the pandemic, which led to a baby bust six to nine months later. (That number also may include some early-term miscarriages and abortions, she noted.) But that trend reversed in summer and fall 2020, with 51,000 more conceptions than usual, which suggests that many people delayed their conceptions, said Kearney.”



https://time.com/6223625/covid-pandemic-birth-rates/

“While there was in fact an overall reduction in the birth rate—measured as the annual number of births per thousand people in a population—across the country, the NBER researchers, analyzing data and microdata from the National Center for Health Statistics and the California Department of Health, determined that the decrease didn’t look the way many observers had predicted it would, with births driven down across the board. Rather, travel restrictions likely played a role: The rate of births from women born outside the U.S., which accounted for nearly 23% of births in 2019, plummeted in 2020. And soon after, the rate of births for U.S.-born mothers began to grow.”

FWIW nearly all children eligible for PK3 in DC this Fall would have been conceived prior to March 2020. So any pandemic baby boom children would be in next year's PK3 lottery.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Preferences didn't change this year - what do you mean "less availability"? You're dealing with the same preferences that we all have.

Perhaps OP means that they aren't eligible for Equitable Access preferences, which are rolling out to more schools this year and likely reduce the number of non-preference seats? I don't think it's really enough to make a noticeable difference, but that's the only change I can think of.

Yeah I saw someone mentioned in a post that YY would have less seats due to increased equitable access and how other schools were introducing it too.

DCB, Inspired Teaching, SWS all have EA seats as well. I don't think they were all filled, but with sibling preference it doesn't leave many seats to people without a preference. I would get comfortable with you inbound which I have heard amazing things about. Also, it is pretty easy to lottery into any school after prek.