Fellow PK3 newbies, post your lottery nerves here!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there really a birthing boom? Cite?

OP here. I just did a quick google search and found the articles below. While not super significant, it’s hard for first-time parents/parents of 1 child with all of the preferences allowed to siblings trying to get the few available positions per school.

https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2022/06/the-pandemic-baby-bust-and-rebound

“Kearney spoke at a recent webinar hosted by the National Academies’ Societal Experts Action Network (SEAN) and Committee on Population that explored how the pandemic affected birth rates in the U.S., along with longer-term trends in birth rates.

Added to peoples’ economic concerns, she said, was a public health crisis that might lead them to worry about health implications and the ability to access medical facilities. The closest comparable event is the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918-1919, which led to a large decrease in birth rates despite the absence of modern contraceptives.

By analyzing data on birth rates for late 2020 and 2021, Kearney and her colleagues calculated that there were 62,000 fewer conceptions than usual during the first few months of the pandemic, which led to a baby bust six to nine months later. (That number also may include some early-term miscarriages and abortions, she noted.) But that trend reversed in summer and fall 2020, with 51,000 more conceptions than usual, which suggests that many people delayed their conceptions, said Kearney.”



https://time.com/6223625/covid-pandemic-birth-rates/

“While there was in fact an overall reduction in the birth rate—measured as the annual number of births per thousand people in a population—across the country, the NBER researchers, analyzing data and microdata from the National Center for Health Statistics and the California Department of Health, determined that the decrease didn’t look the way many observers had predicted it would, with births driven down across the board. Rather, travel restrictions likely played a role: The rate of births from women born outside the U.S., which accounted for nearly 23% of births in 2019, plummeted in 2020. And soon after, the rate of births for U.S.-born mothers began to grow.”

FWIW nearly all children eligible for PK3 in DC this Fall would have been conceived prior to March 2020. So any pandemic baby boom children would be in next year's PK3 lottery.

Was coming to make this point. The PK3 class beginning in Fall 2024 (HS Class of 2039) is going to be very small. It’s going to be all kids conceived in March 2020-Feb 2021. Pre vaccines Covid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there really a birthing boom? Cite?

OP here. I just did a quick google search and found the articles below. While not super significant, it’s hard for first-time parents/parents of 1 child with all of the preferences allowed to siblings trying to get the few available positions per school.

https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2022/06/the-pandemic-baby-bust-and-rebound

“Kearney spoke at a recent webinar hosted by the National Academies’ Societal Experts Action Network (SEAN) and Committee on Population that explored how the pandemic affected birth rates in the U.S., along with longer-term trends in birth rates.

Added to peoples’ economic concerns, she said, was a public health crisis that might lead them to worry about health implications and the ability to access medical facilities. The closest comparable event is the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918-1919, which led to a large decrease in birth rates despite the absence of modern contraceptives.

By analyzing data on birth rates for late 2020 and 2021, Kearney and her colleagues calculated that there were 62,000 fewer conceptions than usual during the first few months of the pandemic, which led to a baby bust six to nine months later. (That number also may include some early-term miscarriages and abortions, she noted.) But that trend reversed in summer and fall 2020, with 51,000 more conceptions than usual, which suggests that many people delayed their conceptions, said Kearney.”



https://time.com/6223625/covid-pandemic-birth-rates/

“While there was in fact an overall reduction in the birth rate—measured as the annual number of births per thousand people in a population—across the country, the NBER researchers, analyzing data and microdata from the National Center for Health Statistics and the California Department of Health, determined that the decrease didn’t look the way many observers had predicted it would, with births driven down across the board. Rather, travel restrictions likely played a role: The rate of births from women born outside the U.S., which accounted for nearly 23% of births in 2019, plummeted in 2020. And soon after, the rate of births for U.S.-born mothers began to grow.”

FWIW nearly all children eligible for PK3 in DC this Fall would have been conceived prior to March 2020. So any pandemic baby boom children would be in next year's PK3 lottery.

Was coming to make this point. The PK3 class beginning in Fall 2024 (HS Class of 2039) is going to be very small. It’s going to be all kids conceived in March 2020-Feb 2021. Pre vaccines Covid.

It’s not apples-to-apples because DC doesn’t break down birth data by school year but there was only a small decrease in births between 2020 (8,869 births) and 2021 (8,723 births). But how those births are distributed will matter for the class year cohort. For example, we were trying when Covid broke out and we put those plans on hold until it was obvious that better treatments were available and we were close to a vaccine. I suspect we aren’t the only parents that did that. It’s purely anecdotal but all of the kids in his toddler daycare class were born between January-March of 2021. The way the class splits there should be Fall 2020 kids, but there aren’t any, at least not in his school. Again, this doesn’t mean there weren’t babies being born in Fall 2020, but it reinforces the idea that there may have been a reduction.