Don't buy in MoCo until the school redistricting is setled?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:i’m going to be home shopping soon in the 800k range and have pretty much ruled out any home that is zoned for one of the Ws. you’d be silly to buy a house that comes with a school premium right now.

So where are you looking to buy?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

i’m going to be home shopping soon in the 800k range and have pretty much ruled out any home that is zoned for one of the Ws. you’d be silly to buy a house that comes with a school premium right now.

Every house in MOCO in the 600K -800K price range has a school premium too. Don't fool yourself. Homes in Blair may be way cheaper than BCC or Whitman but they have a premium over Wheaton or Einstein. Wheaton and Einstein have a premium over Kennedy. Homes in Quince Orchard may be way cheaper than ones in Churchill but QO has a premium over NW. NW has a premium over SV or GHS. These non W clusters that have 800K homes are actually more at risk for rezoning reducing their property values than many of the W areas.

Look at Cabin Branch, they went from being zoned to a mid level 8 MS and 7 high school to being rezoned to a 3 MS and a 4 HS. This neighborhood had houses in the 700s to high 700s and was not geographically adjacent to Neelsville or SV. Its cluster was adjacent though and it was a neighborhood with higher value homes so it ended up being the area picked for rezoning. The same scenario is likely to play out at the other schools that are considered good to OK but outside the W clusters - Quince Orchard, RM, Blair, Sherwood -because there are all adjacent to much lower performing school with much higher FARMS. The W schools like Churchill and Whitman are the most difficult to rezone because they are not adjacent to the low performing/high FARMS schools. It will take extreme bussing to balance the FARMS at those schools.

Or rather it would take extreme busing to balance the FARMS at those schools, except that 1) MCPS is not going to do anything that might be described as "extreme busing" and 2) MCPS has never said their goal is to "balance the FARMS" rates. They are trying to reduce disparities between neighboring clusters. This does not mean all FARMS rates must be balanced, but if you have two adjoining schools with unusual disparities in their FARMS rates, maybe you can do something about that via boundary changes.
MCPS's own regulation states that "a key consideration is significant disparity in the demographic characteristics between schools in the affected geographic areas that cannot be justified by any other factor." Italics mine. One of the other factors being: geography.

https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/policy/pdf/faara.pdf

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
i’m going to be home shopping soon in the 800k range and have pretty much ruled out any home that is zoned for one of the Ws. you’d be silly to buy a house that comes with a school premium right now.


Every house in MOCO in the 600K -800K price range has a school premium too. Don't fool yourself. Homes in Blair may be way cheaper than BCC or Whitman but they have a premium over Wheaton or Einstein. Wheaton and Einstein have a premium over Kennedy. Homes in Quince Orchard may be way cheaper than ones in Churchill but QO has a premium over NW. NW has a premium over SV or GHS. These non W clusters that have 800K homes are actually more at risk for rezoning reducing their property values than many of the W areas.

Look at Cabin Branch, they went from being zoned to a mid level 8 MS and 7 high school to being rezoned to a 3 MS and a 4 HS. This neighborhood had houses in the 700s to high 700s and was not geographically adjacent to Neelsville or SV. Its cluster was adjacent though and it was a neighborhood with higher value homes so it ended up being the area picked for rezoning. The same scenario is likely to play out at the other schools that are considered good to OK but outside the W clusters - Quince Orchard, RM, Blair, Sherwood -because there are all adjacent to much lower performing school with much higher FARMS. The W schools like Churchill and Whitman are the most difficult to rezone because they are not adjacent to the low performing/high FARMS schools. It will take extreme bussing to balance the FARMS at those schools.


Or rather it would take extreme busing to balance the FARMS at those schools, except that 1) MCPS is not going to do anything that might be described as "extreme busing" and 2) MCPS has never said their goal is to "balance the FARMS" rates. They are trying to reduce disparities between neighboring clusters. This does not mean all FARMS rates must be balanced, but if you have two adjoining schools with unusual disparities in their FARMS rates, maybe you can do something about that via boundary changes.
MCPS's own regulation states that "a key consideration is significant disparity in the demographic characteristics between schools in the affected geographic areas that cannot be justified by any other factor." Italics mine. One of the other factors being: geography.

https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/policy/pdf/faara.pdf

Well this is far more prevalent in the non-W school clusters that have houses in the 600K-800K price range. The non-W next level schools already have 20% or more FARMS and are adjacent to school clusters that have much higher FARMS. To balance this out, those areas are more at risk than the W schools that have FARMS under 10% because those schools are not adjacent to ones with high FARMS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, what have you decided?

Gonna wait it out and see what happens. It's too big an investment to go in blindly.

Gonna be a long wait....

What if time is money?
What if wait would mean buying lower then why not wait?

Waiting until it is settled--what does that actually mean? Public school boundaries are subject to change. There is no "settled."

It means OP should be a lifetime renter.

This. Then she can uproot as soon as it looks like kids might have to attend school with brown children.

Hmm I wouldn't be so quick to judge. OP could be brown herself too. All people, regardless of color, want to make the best investment. Nobody wants to willingly lose money. Let me know if you know of someone who does, I have a bridge to sell them.

[Anonymous]

There are not going to be massive new busing programs or major overhauls. But I guarantee you that MCPS will do something, even if it's only symbolic, to the Ws. They have to - they can't mess with the schools that are a little bit diverse and leave the whitest/richest schools completely untouched.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are not going to be massive new busing programs or major overhauls. But I guarantee you that MCPS will do something, even if it's only symbolic, to the Ws. They have to - they can't mess with the schools that are a little bit diverse and leave the whitest/richest schools completely untouched.

The W schools are not that white. Tons of Indians and Chinese. It is only diversity of money that is issue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are not going to be massive new busing programs or major overhauls. But I guarantee you that MCPS will do something, even if it's only symbolic, to the Ws. They have to - they can't mess with the schools that are a little bit diverse and leave the whitest/richest schools completely untouched.

The W schools are not that white. Tons of Indians and Chinese. It is only diversity of money that is issue.

Which high school is whiter than Whitman (White Man)? MoCo is a majority minority county. Even the whitest schools are not totally white. But they have very, very few black and Latino students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are not going to be massive new busing programs or major overhauls. But I guarantee you that MCPS will do something, even if it's only symbolic, to the Ws. They have to - they can't mess with the schools that are a little bit diverse and leave the whitest/richest schools completely untouched.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are not going to be massive new busing programs or major overhauls. But I guarantee you that MCPS will do something, even if it's only symbolic, to the Ws. They have to - they can't mess with the schools that are a little bit diverse and leave the whitest/richest schools completely untouched.

The W schools are not that white. Tons of Indians and Chinese. It is only diversity of money that is issue.

Which high school is whiter than Whitman (White Man)? MoCo is a majority minority county. Even the whitest schools are not totally white. But they have very, very few black and Latino students.

Yes. 67% of Whitman students are white, the highest rate of any HS in MoCo. Countywide that number is 29%.

Also, <5% of Whitman students are black, the lowest rate of any HS in MoCo. Countywide that number is 21%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

i’m going to be home shopping soon in the 800k range and have pretty much ruled out any home that is zoned for one of the Ws. you’d be silly to buy a house that comes with a school premium right now.

Every house in MOCO in the 600K -800K price range has a school premium too. Don't fool yourself. Homes in Blair may be way cheaper than BCC or Whitman but they have a premium over Wheaton or Einstein. Wheaton and Einstein have a premium over Kennedy. Homes in Quince Orchard may be way cheaper than ones in Churchill but QO has a premium over NW. NW has a premium over SV or GHS. These non W clusters that have 800K homes are actually more at risk for rezoning reducing their property values than many of the W areas.

Look at Cabin Branch, they went from being zoned to a mid level 8 MS and 7 high school to being rezoned to a 3 MS and a 4 HS. This neighborhood had houses in the 700s to high 700s and was not geographically adjacent to Neelsville or SV. Its cluster was adjacent though and it was a neighborhood with higher value homes so it ended up being the area picked for rezoning. The same scenario is likely to play out at the other schools that are considered good to OK but outside the W clusters - Quince Orchard, RM, Blair, Sherwood -because there are all adjacent to much lower performing school with much higher FARMS. The W schools like Churchill and Whitman are the most difficult to rezone because they are not adjacent to the low performing/high FARMS schools. It will take extreme bussing to balance the FARMS at those schools.

you’re right,any home in moco is at risk of being rezoned to a worse school but there are different risk levels

for example, buying in dufief or travilah is very risky as they are far from wootton and have a huge school premium

buying in horizon hill/potomac woods carries little risk because there is no school premium and if it were to get rezoned, it would be to a better school

additionally, I don’t think QO and nw are that much different from a home value perspective. nothing like the difference between wootton and a lesser school

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
i’m going to be home shopping soon in the 800k range and have pretty much ruled out any home that is zoned for one of the Ws. you’d be silly to buy a house that comes with a school premium right now.


Every house in MOCO in the 600K -800K price range has a school premium too. Don't fool yourself. Homes in Blair may be way cheaper than BCC or Whitman but they have a premium over Wheaton or Einstein. Wheaton and Einstein have a premium over Kennedy. Homes in Quince Orchard may be way cheaper than ones in Churchill but QO has a premium over NW. NW has a premium over SV or GHS. These non W clusters that have 800K homes are actually more at risk for rezoning reducing their property values than many of the W areas.

Look at Cabin Branch, they went from being zoned to a mid level 8 MS and 7 high school to being rezoned to a 3 MS and a 4 HS. This neighborhood had houses in the 700s to high 700s and was not geographically adjacent to Neelsville or SV. Its cluster was adjacent though and it was a neighborhood with higher value homes so it ended up being the area picked for rezoning. The same scenario is likely to play out at the other schools that are considered good to OK but outside the W clusters - Quince Orchard, RM, Blair, Sherwood -because there are all adjacent to much lower performing school with much higher FARMS. The W schools like Churchill and Whitman are the most difficult to rezone because they are not adjacent to the low performing/high FARMS schools. It will take extreme bussing to balance the FARMS at those schools.


Or rather it would take extreme busing to balance the FARMS at those schools, except that 1) MCPS is not going to do anything that might be described as "extreme busing" and 2) MCPS has never said their goal is to "balance the FARMS" rates. They are trying to reduce disparities between neighboring clusters. This does not mean all FARMS rates must be balanced, but if you have two adjoining schools with unusual disparities in their FARMS rates, maybe you can do something about that via boundary changes.
MCPS's own regulation states that "a key consideration is significant disparity in the demographic characteristics between schools in the affected geographic areas that cannot be justified by any other factor." Italics mine. One of the other factors being: geography.

https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/policy/pdf/faara.pdf

Well this is far more prevalent in the non-W school clusters that have houses in the 600K-800K price range. The non-W next level schools already have 20% or more FARMS and are adjacent to school clusters that have much higher FARMS. To balance this out, those areas are more at risk than the W schools that have FARMS under 10% because those schools are not adjacent to ones with high FARMS.

Not really true - many WJ students are much closer to Wheaton than WJ, and Wotton's boundary has a completely unusual shape that indicates most of its students are as closer or closer to other school particularly highger FARMS schools to its North. Further with the addition of CRwon and Woodward to that area I expect it to be in more flux than the rest of the county. All that being said I personally think the schools will be fine. I just think it's false to claim that these schools are safe when they're in the most need of change.

[Anonymous]

Bottom line this has ZERO to do about race. I moved from Long Island NY and my kids school was 97 percent white. Never an issue. Why it was an average to slightly above average school. Meanwhile award winning schools that where less white or white with Asians was a huge issue. The folks of color or lower income wanted in.

If Churchill or Whitman was average so so high schools with same demographic no one would care

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, what have you decided?

Gonna wait it out and see what happens. It's too big an investment to go in blindly.

Gonna be a long wait....

What if time is money?
What if wait would mean buying lower then why not wait?

Waiting until it is settled--what does that actually mean? Public school boundaries are subject to change. There is no "settled."

It means OP should be a lifetime renter.

This. Then she can uproot as soon as it looks like kids might have to attend school with brown children.

Hmm I wouldn't be so quick to judge. OP could be brown herself too. All people, regardless of color, want to make the best investment. Nobody wants to willingly lose money. Let me know if you know of someone who does, I have a bridge to sell them.

[Anonymous]

OP, if you are that concerned about school redistricting, you should buy a house right next to your dream school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP, if you are that concerned about school redistricting, you should buy a house right next to your dream school.

Redistricting would be moving to different district, like .. out of MoCo. While rezoning would be moving the school boundaries.