Which would lose their Deal feed first: Shepherd, Bancroft, or Lafayette?

[Anonymous]

How much of a property value drop could a house expect if its school were reassigned out of Deal?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lordy. This thread comes up every quarter or so. Everyone spouts off. "The way to fix it is so." "It's obvious what need to be done." "Of course X school needs to be cut out." OOB kids (many of whom have attended their OOB school since PK) must be kicked for the feeder path." "Something must be done." "I envision the solution that doesn't impact my snowflake." Blah, blah, freaking blah. Everyone on here has repeated the same crap for 10+ years on here. If you want to impact change in some way (or defend the current system) get off here and make your arguments to decision makers.

I think it's a useful discussion because - for me at least - it lets me hear all sides of the issue, so I can make up my own mind about what makes sense and what doesn't. Seems to me that the people trying to squash discussion are often the ones who benefit from an unfair status quo, so they don't want any open discussion about possible changes.

It's May and this is already the third or fourth time this "discussion" has come up here, without any prospect of a single word typed here making any difference. Animosity is really the only product generated. Until there is new news, this topic is well past its shelf life.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How much of a property value drop could a house expect if its school were reassigned out of Deal?

Zero. The DC market is way too hot.

[Anonymous]

I got interested in the diversity point - i.e., whether shifting Bancroft and/or Shepherd to the MacFarland cluster would effectively eliminate racial diversity at Deal - and did a little math.

Currently, Deal is 45% white, 31% black, 13% Latino, and a mixture of other races (total of 55% non-white). I looked at the race percentages of each of the feeder elementary schools, and calculated what Deal's race demographics might look like if Bancroft and Shepherd are rerouted to MacFarland. If that happens, Deal's student population would be about 1,080, with 65% white / 35% non-white. But because Deal's capacity is 1200, and DCPS is aiming for 10% at-risk population, those numbers conveniently allow for 120 at-risk students. I assume almost all of those at-risk students would be non-white. If that's a valid assumption, then the final balance at Deal without Bancroft/Shepherd would be 58% white / 42% non-white.

Everyone can make their own individual judgments about whether that shift in race diversity is an acceptable side-effect of rerouting Bancroft and Shepherd. Speaking only for myself, I don't think that shift is a problem. Several posters had claimed that Deal without Bancroft/Shepherd would be an essentially all-white middle school, and that potential result concerned me because I do think exposing children (and frankly everyone) to race diversity is important. But these numbers suggest that the fear of an all-white school is simply mistaken. It seems Deal would still have plenty of non-white diversity even after rerouting Bancroft and Shepherd to MacFarland.

To put things in context, Ward 3 where Deal is located, is about 78% white, 7% Latino, 6% black, 6% Asian, and a mixture of other races. So either way, Deal itself has far more race diversity than the surrounding area.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lordy. This thread comes up every quarter or so. Everyone spouts off. "The way to fix it is so." "It's obvious what need to be done." "Of course X school needs to be cut out." OOB kids (many of whom have attended their OOB school since PK) must be kicked for the feeder path." "Something must be done." "I envision the solution that doesn't impact my snowflake." Blah, blah, freaking blah. Everyone on here has repeated the same crap for 10+ years on here. If you want to impact change in some way (or defend the current system) get off here and make your arguments to decision makers.

I think it's a useful discussion because - for me at least - it lets me hear all sides of the issue, so I can make up my own mind about what makes sense and what doesn't. Seems to me that the people trying to squash discussion are often the ones who benefit from an unfair status quo, so they don't want any open discussion about possible changes.

It's May and this is already the third or fourth time this "discussion" has come up here, without any prospect of a single word typed here making any difference. Animosity is really the only product generated. Until there is new news, this topic is well past its shelf life.

Maybe you should not participate if you're not finding it useful. I am learning a lot, and I plan to pass along my thoughts to people at DCPS. DCPS seemed to encourage community input when it conducted the boundary assessment process, so I imagine it would appreciate input now too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I got interested in the diversity point - i.e., whether shifting Bancroft and/or Shepherd to the MacFarland cluster would effectively eliminate racial diversity at Deal - and did a little math.

Currently, Deal is 45% white, 31% black, 13% Latino, and a mixture of other races (total of 55% non-white). I looked at the race percentages of each of the feeder elementary schools, and calculated what Deal's race demographics might look like if Bancroft and Shepherd are rerouted to MacFarland. If that happens, Deal's student population would be about 1,080, with 65% white / 35% non-white. But because Deal's capacity is 1200, and DCPS is aiming for 10% at-risk population, those numbers conveniently allow for 120 at-risk students. I assume almost all of those at-risk students would be non-white. If that's a valid assumption, then the final balance at Deal without Bancroft/Shepherd would be 58% white / 42% non-white.

Everyone can make their own individual judgments about whether that shift in race diversity is an acceptable side-effect of rerouting Bancroft and Shepherd. Speaking only for myself, I don't think that shift is a problem. Several posters had claimed that Deal without Bancroft/Shepherd would be an essentially all-white middle school, and that potential result concerned me because I do think exposing children (and frankly everyone) to race diversity is important. But these numbers suggest that the fear of an all-white school is simply mistaken. It seems Deal would still have plenty of non-white diversity even after rerouting Bancroft and Shepherd to MacFarland.

To put things in context, Ward 3 where Deal is located, is about 78% white, 7% Latino, 6% black, 6% Asian, and a mixture of other races. So either way, Deal itself has far more race diversity than the surrounding area.

Except the 10% at-risk set aside hasn't been implemented yet and no one knows if it ever would be.

MacFarland is a wild card here -- because Bancroft students have a right to attend there, as well as Deal. Will families choose this new dual-language option or continue to go to Deal? Will Deal eventually be taken away a la Oyster after a few years once MacFarland is up and running.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I got interested in the diversity point - i.e., whether shifting Bancroft and/or Shepherd to the MacFarland cluster would effectively eliminate racial diversity at Deal - and did a little math.

Currently, Deal is 45% white, 31% black, 13% Latino, and a mixture of other races (total of 55% non-white). I looked at the race percentages of each of the feeder elementary schools, and calculated what Deal's race demographics might look like if Bancroft and Shepherd are rerouted to MacFarland. If that happens, Deal's student population would be about 1,080, with 65% white / 35% non-white. But because Deal's capacity is 1200, and DCPS is aiming for 10% at-risk population, those numbers conveniently allow for 120 at-risk students. I assume almost all of those at-risk students would be non-white. If that's a valid assumption, then the final balance at Deal without Bancroft/Shepherd would be 58% white / 42% non-white.

Everyone can make their own individual judgments about whether that shift in race diversity is an acceptable side-effect of rerouting Bancroft and Shepherd. Speaking only for myself, I don't think that shift is a problem. Several posters had claimed that Deal without Bancroft/Shepherd would be an essentially all-white middle school, and that potential result concerned me because I do think exposing children (and frankly everyone) to race diversity is important. But these numbers suggest that the fear of an all-white school is simply mistaken. It seems Deal would still have plenty of non-white diversity even after rerouting Bancroft and Shepherd to MacFarland.

To put things in context, Ward 3 where Deal is located, is about 78% white, 7% Latino, 6% black, 6% Asian, and a mixture of other races. So either way, Deal itself has far more race diversity than the surrounding area.

Fully agree.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I got interested in the diversity point - i.e., whether shifting Bancroft and/or Shepherd to the MacFarland cluster would effectively eliminate racial diversity at Deal - and did a little math.

Currently, Deal is 45% white, 31% black, 13% Latino, and a mixture of other races (total of 55% non-white). I looked at the race percentages of each of the feeder elementary schools, and calculated what Deal's race demographics might look like if Bancroft and Shepherd are rerouted to MacFarland. If that happens, Deal's student population would be about 1,080, with 65% white / 35% non-white. But because Deal's capacity is 1200, and DCPS is aiming for 10% at-risk population, those numbers conveniently allow for 120 at-risk students. I assume almost all of those at-risk students would be non-white. If that's a valid assumption, then the final balance at Deal without Bancroft/Shepherd would be 58% white / 42% non-white.

Everyone can make their own individual judgments about whether that shift in race diversity is an acceptable side-effect of rerouting Bancroft and Shepherd. Speaking only for myself, I don't think that shift is a problem. Several posters had claimed that Deal without Bancroft/Shepherd would be an essentially all-white middle school, and that potential result concerned me because I do think exposing children (and frankly everyone) to race diversity is important. But these numbers suggest that the fear of an all-white school is simply mistaken. It seems Deal would still have plenty of non-white diversity even after rerouting Bancroft and Shepherd to MacFarland.

To put things in context, Ward 3 where Deal is located, is about 78% white, 7% Latino, 6% black, 6% Asian, and a mixture of other races. So either way, Deal itself has far more race diversity than the surrounding area.

Except the 10% at-risk set aside hasn't been implemented yet and no one knows if it ever would be.

MacFarland is a wild card here -- because Bancroft students have a right to attend there, as well as Deal. Will families choose this new dual-language option or continue to go to Deal? Will Deal eventually be taken away a la Oyster after a few years once MacFarland is up and running.

Fair point about the 10% at-risk set aside being not-yet-implemented. But if DCPS really wants to clear enough space at Deal to impose the 10% at-risk population, then rerouting both Bancroft and Shepherd seems to be the obvious way to clear space. As an alternate scenario, you could assume the at-risk set aside never gets implemented, which would mean there is barely enough room at Deal for Shepherd to remain if Bancroft alone is rerouted. The race demographics for that scenario work out to be about 59% white / 41% non-white. So a tiny bit less racially diverse than the at-risk approach, but still highly diverse overall.

[Anonymous]

Yes - the bigger question affecting the whole city, not just the Deal feeders - is whether DCPS really wants to implement the 10% at risk plan.

It was Catania's plan, and he is bviously no longer in the mix.

Anyone have insight on that?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How much of a property value drop could a house expect if its school were reassigned out of Deal?

Depends on location. If you could walk to Deal but now had to drive across town to school, it would have a bigger negative impact than if you would now walk to a school that was now good because of all the former Deal kids who now go there, such that the latter scenario may actually have a positive property impact.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How much of a property value drop could a house expect if its school were reassigned out of Deal?

Zero. The DC market is way too hot.

+1 agreed. the property value argument is a red herring. Houses in neighborhoods with unremarkable schools (Petworth, Brookland) are selling for top dollar. Houses in Palisades and Spring Valley (which feed to Hardy) are not impacted at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I got interested in the diversity point - i.e., whether shifting Bancroft and/or Shepherd to the MacFarland cluster would effectively eliminate racial diversity at Deal - and did a little math.

Currently, Deal is 45% white, 31% black, 13% Latino, and a mixture of other races (total of 55% non-white). I looked at the race percentages of each of the feeder elementary schools, and calculated what Deal's race demographics might look like if Bancroft and Shepherd are rerouted to MacFarland. If that happens, Deal's student population would be about 1,080, with 65% white / 35% non-white. But because Deal's capacity is 1200, and DCPS is aiming for 10% at-risk population, those numbers conveniently allow for 120 at-risk students. I assume almost all of those at-risk students would be non-white. If that's a valid assumption, then the final balance at Deal without Bancroft/Shepherd would be 58% white / 42% non-white.

Everyone can make their own individual judgments about whether that shift in race diversity is an acceptable side-effect of rerouting Bancroft and Shepherd. Speaking only for myself, I don't think that shift is a problem. Several posters had claimed that Deal without Bancroft/Shepherd would be an essentially all-white middle school, and that potential result concerned me because I do think exposing children (and frankly everyone) to race diversity is important. But these numbers suggest that the fear of an all-white school is simply mistaken. It seems Deal would still have plenty of non-white diversity even after rerouting Bancroft and Shepherd to MacFarland.

To put things in context, Ward 3 where Deal is located, is about 78% white, 7% Latino, 6% black, 6% Asian, and a mixture of other races. So either way, Deal itself has far more race diversity than the surrounding area.

Fully agree.

7/6/6 diversity is not diverse, sorry. BTW Where do you find demographics for a ward? As mentioned before, you cannot say for certain what % of minority students at Deal come from Bancroft/Shepherd neighborhood because students go to Deal without going to their elementary school. They go from charters and privates. Also a large # of minority students currently at Deal are grandfathered students from other neighborhoods. Don't forget OOB from feeders like Eaton (grandfathered) and Hearst (which will have fewer OOBs in a few years).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OOB feeders account for 1/3 of Deal's population. That would allow OOB kids from all over to have access and put the capacity well below limits.

Great solution if it's accurate. What's your source for 1/3 of Deal being OOB students?

Because Deal is currently 30% OOB. They don't admit OOB students out of the lottery so the only way to be labeled OOB is come from a feeder as OOB student.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How much of a property value drop could a house expect if its school were reassigned out of Deal?

Depends on location. If you could walk to Deal but now had to drive across town to school, it would have a bigger negative impact than if you would now walk to a school that was now good because of all the former Deal kids who now go there, such that the latter scenario may actually have a positive property impact.

True

[Anonymous]

How much of a property value drop could a house expect if its school were reassigned out of Deal?

I would think it would have some negative effect because some families are looking for houses specifically with a Deal feed. Lose the Deal feed, lose the added offers that come with it.