Which would lose their Deal feed first: Shepherd, Bancroft, or Lafayette?

[Anonymous]

Though nobody knows for sure when the city will revisit school feeder patterns again, it is likely that they will not be able to wait over 40 years to do so again. Deal is becoming increasingly crowded due to lack of other options, and a rise in the number of families wishing to stay in the District will only exacerbate the situation. Therefore, it stands to reason that the city will need to further restrict the number of elementaries that feed Deal. Assuming these dynamics continue, when would another round of reassignment take place: 10 years from now? 20? And which schools would likely be reassigned? Would it be Shepherd and/or Bancroft because they are east of the park? Or, in the event of a strong objection by these neighborhoods, would Lafayette be implicated also because they are in Ward 4 too?

Please note that I currently rent and don't have kids yet. I'm just trying to get a feel for how overcrowding and increases in the child-age population will play out given the charged political dynamics around the subject of school feeder patterns before I spend what will probably be at least a million dollars on a 'starter' house in one of these neighborhoods in 10 years. TIA.

[Anonymous]

At the end of hte last boundary review it was stated or expected that boundaries would be revisited again in 2020.

That said, there is a lot of grandfathering that always happens when boundaries are redrawn.

It's also not clear that the overcrowding will continue at the same pace -- the families who live IB for Janney and Lafayette (for example) are likely to stay in place until their children are through college of later. There are only so many places for new families to move into.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Though nobody knows for sure when the city will revisit school feeder patterns again, it is likely that they will not be able to wait over 40 years to do so again. Deal is becoming increasingly crowded due to lack of other options, and a rise in the number of families wishing to stay in the District will only exacerbate the situation. Therefore, it stands to reason that the city will need to further restrict the number of elementaries that feed Deal. Assuming these dynamics continue, when would another round of reassignment take place: 10 years from now? 20? And which schools would likely be reassigned? Would it be Shepherd and/or Bancroft because they are east of the park? Or, in the event of a strong objection by these neighborhoods, would Lafayette be implicated also because they are in Ward 4 too?

Please note that I currently rent and don't have kids yet. I'm just trying to get a feel for how overcrowding and increases in the child-age population will play out given the charged political dynamics around the subject of school feeder patterns before I spend what will probably be at least a million dollars on a 'starter' house in one of these neighborhoods in 10 years. TIA.

You're worried about 10 years out? You're not even ready for the mommy forums, let alone schools. Have a glass of wine and relax

[Anonymous]

Some neighborhoods in Ward 4 were allowed to temporarily stay at Deal. I guess they will go first.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Some neighborhoods in Ward 4 were allowed to temporarily stay at Deal. I guess they will go first.

Yes, I think that's obvious, but OP's question is a good one (though very premature).

[Anonymous]

Shit thread candidate of the week.

Sometimes I think Jeff is secretly creating these to boost the site clicks.

[Anonymous]

IMHO, the first to go will be Crestwood's super-grandfather legacy status. After that, it should be Shepherd next, but they currently have the political muscle to block it, so they would throw Bancroft under the bus. However, if any half-credible challenger can appear, then Bowser will be out after one term, which means Shepherd loses a big part of its political clout.

If I were in your shoes and thinking about where to buy in DC to ensure access to Deal, I'd pick the Lafayette or AU Park area. They seem safest. Alternatively, continue to live wherever you want and build equity now, and then just plan to move when future kid approaches school age.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Though nobody knows for sure when the city will revisit school feeder patterns again, it is likely that they will not be able to wait over 40 years to do so again. Deal is becoming increasingly crowded due to lack of other options, and a rise in the number of families wishing to stay in the District will only exacerbate the situation. Therefore, it stands to reason that the city will need to further restrict the number of elementaries that feed Deal. Assuming these dynamics continue, when would another round of reassignment take place: 10 years from now? 20? And which schools would likely be reassigned? Would it be Shepherd and/or Bancroft because they are east of the park? Or, in the event of a strong objection by these neighborhoods, would Lafayette be implicated also because they are in Ward 4 too?

Please note that I currently rent and don't have kids yet. I'm just trying to get a feel for how overcrowding and increases in the child-age population will play out given the charged political dynamics around the subject of school feeder patterns before I spend what will probably be at least a million dollars on a 'starter' house in one of these neighborhoods in 10 years. TIA.

I am just outside the Bancroft boundary, and frankly, I think that both Bancroft and Shepherd should lose the Deal feed. I think that Bancroft should feed into CHEC, which is just down the street and is dual language, and then Roosevelt, for their dual language program. I think Shepherd should feed into MacFarland and Roosevelt, both of which are closer than Deal/Wilson.

I understand the reasons for the opposition to these suggestions and to an extent, I sympathize with the objectors. However, the reality is that many of the schools that feed into Deal/Wilson are overcrowded, and Deal/Wilson are overcrowded, and there are other schools with capacity that more proximate.

[Anonymous]

The current 3rd grade is the next "bubble" grade -- the year that the Ks went from 4 to 5 classes per grade at the largest feeder schools. So they will start Deal in SY18-19, and the two grades behind them are just as big, so unless something is done or the feeders experience huge and unprecedented attrition, by the time they are in 8th (SY20-21), today's crowding at Deal will look comfortable by comparison. Especially since by that time the capacity/enrollment at Lafayette and Murch combined will have increased by 220 students, and numerous new apartment buildings in Murch, Hearst, and Janney will be up and running.

[Anonymous]

Shepherd has the best academic case to make for keeping Deal - since it's an IB elementary school and Deal is an IB middle school.

Not that curriculum will drive the decision.

[Anonymous]

An overcrowded school should lose Deal, if you truly want to affect overcrowding there. Shepherd is a small school with a small population attending Deal, so the effect would be negligible.

[Anonymous]

I would guess that eventually all of the Ward 4 elementary schools - Lafayette included - will feed eastward. That's what would make the most sense.

[Anonymous]

An overcrowded school should lose Deal...

As if it would be overcrowded anymore if it lost the feed. LMFAO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:An overcrowded school should lose Deal, if you truly want to affect overcrowding there. Shepherd is a small school with a small population attending Deal, so the effect would be negligible.

This is a really good point. And unless trends change dramatically and quickly, most of the diversity at Deal is still coming from Shepherd and Bancroft. DCPS does not want Deal to be majority white.

[Anonymous]

Another option would be to get rid of the automatic right of OOB students at feeders to attend Deal.