Camp Mystic

[Anonymous]

What do you think is going to happen to camp mystic? Do you think families will continue to send their kids?

We own commercial property that is in a flood area. The insurance rates have gone up so much over the past few years. I assume this is also happening in Texas?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There is so much speculation and judgement in this thread.

DCUM is a special kind of special.

Reddit, threads, X, insta don’t have this level of BS going on for this topic.

Did DCUM react the same when Hurricane Helene dumped all its rain the the NC mountain and swept away river banks, roads and towns in a matter of minutes but with hours serious notice and daylight.

[Anonymous]

[img]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:IMO the camp deserves the blame. Other camps in the area started evacuating hours earlier and others ended their sessions a day earlier. The first warning about flooding went out Thursday at 1pm.

Did they? I read camp junta nearby had campers swimming out of their cabins. Luckily everyone ended up safe there.

Are those the only two camps in the area?

No—There are a bunch of camps along the river, and my guess is most had campers at this time of year.

[Anonymous]

I am the one who posted further up about others getting their campers out ahead of the flood. Sounds as though the camp directors were left to make decisions on their own. There was no guidance from local authorities. It's a terrible tragedy that probably could have been avoided. The camp grounds and RV parks should have been evacuated as well.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/public-safety-and-emergencies/health-and-safety-alerts/texas-summer-camp-evacuated-70-staying-near-river-ahead-of-flooding-saw-it-coming/ar-AA1I7fif

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm from the south and understand camp culture and its importance to many families. I have multiple friends with some association to Camp Mystic as former campers, counselors, etc. It's not my thing, but I get it.

Here's what I don't understand.

This camp - and many camps in that area - have been there for 100 years. This is a big part of the tradition; campers literally stay in the same cabins that their moms, grandmothers, aunts, etc. did. They are not going to up and move the location of the camp. But, given the nature of the river and history of flooding there, why are they not better regulated? Are they inspected for safety, beyond the dining room kitchens? How do they get insurance being situated so close to the river as they are?

It seems to me that any of these privately held camps that host thousands of kids across the course of the summer would pay more attention to safety factors. I'm sure they do some sort of weather drills and training, etc. with their young staffs. But this is the kind of thing that needs to be reviewed and thought through on an annual basis. Why was no one awake that night, all night, watching the weather forecast? The warnings were there and they grew increasingly dire throughout the night. That should be standard operating procedure for any facility like this.

Is it common to have someone literally awake watching the weather forecast at any camp? I'm sure that many of y'all will become experts on the Camp Mystic Safety Manual as soon as it's available.

PP here. Are you kidding me?

Suppose you're the owner/ operator of a camp that hosts 850 children on site at one time. Don't you think you would spring for a couple of overnight security people at $25 an hour to make sure everything is OK overnight, while all of the children and staff are sleeping??? Or are you OK to just go to sleep in the middle of the woods, away from everything, and hope nothing happens for 6-8 hours?

Agree!! This setup is crazy making. The 100 year old tradition of replicating granny's and mom’s traditions is quaint and all, but the reality is stupid. Proactive beats reactive every time. Technology!! Warning systems!! Security!! Cameras!! Common Sense!!
Texas reality hits different. Mass shooting = more guns. River flooding = rebuild camp in same location and same elevation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:IMO the camp deserves the blame. Other camps in the area started evacuating hours earlier and others ended their sessions a day earlier. The first warning about flooding went out Thursday at 1pm.

Did they? I read camp junta nearby had campers swimming out of their cabins. Luckily everyone ended up safe there.

Are those the only two camps in the area?

The info about other camps getting their campers out is towards the end of the article.

https://www.thecentersquare.com/texas/article_14b9fbd9-398e-418e-9dc5-04370782cc38.html

Mo Ranch is on lower ground.

The other 2 didn’t end early. That was their normal end of session.

God. The misinformation and judgement.

[Anonymous]

Usual flood warnings were 5-10’ there and they clear that area daily if boats, vests, stuff anyhow.

At no point did anything predict it would be a micro blast dump of water that would siphon that quickly down that part of the river and see the water rise 25-40’.

That’s ridiculous.

That’s like all of Georgetown, Roosevelt island, Rosslyn, DCA, Old Town 25-40’ water lines.

The most the Potomac has seen is 6’ tides and 10-12’ with hurricane surges. Downriver storm drainage can get voluminous and gross but not overflowing. Perhaps a nice blast & dump at Harper’s Ferry could do the trick and wipe it all out within 45 mins. Bye bye calleva, Madeira, great falls…

W

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What do you think is going to happen to camp mystic? Do you think families will continue to send their kids?

We own commercial property that is in a flood area. The insurance rates have gone up so much over the past few years. I assume this is also happening in Texas?

Rates are going up for everyone because the rest of us need to subsidize beach and river homes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mystic did have a night watch and he raised the alarm at 2:00 am according to him. They started moving the lowest lying campers up to the Rec hall at that time. They were still moving kids when the flash flood came at about 4:00am. The two cabins where the kids were swept away were 25 ft up from the edge of the river, near the rec hall. The river has never risen that high before. The water rose more than that in 40 minutes and reached the Rec hall but it thankfully didn’t collapse. By the time they tried to get to other cabins near the rec hall the water was going up incredibly fast and one of the cabin walls collapsed. That was the cabin were all the girls were swept away. They were in the middle of getting the girls from the cabin beside it and rescued most of them but the camp director was swept away with a few girls. There was an interview with the night watchman.

If this account is true (I have no idea) it should not take 2 hours to move children to safety. TWO HOURS!!

I am guessing that at the start, they were still thinking that this was just precautionary. No one likes to wake up sleeping children, and they probably didn't really believe there was much chance of flooding (since it hadn't happened for decades) and that it would be a false alarm. And also, they probably were trying to evacuate safely by putting kids into cars and driving them up the hill to the higher buildings, likely together with their sleeping bags so they could have a comfortable night.

If they TRULY believed all the cabins were going to flood they would have been out there honking and screaming for the kids to get the hell out and just run up the hill. But my sense is, at first, that reaction would have felt like way too much.

The flooding, when it happened, happened way faster than most people had any experience with. And what was missing, apparently, was that middle level warning from NWS. The prediction of flooding was made, but usually there are some mid level people (apparently) whose job it is to get on the actual phone and start contacting state and county and maybe even town officials and telling them "Pay attention to this one, here's what could happen". I.e. putting it more into context.

Someone to call the camp director at 2 am And tell him how fast they could expect the flooding to happen if it was going to happen. Give him a timeline - 15 minutes to get to higher ground.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Usual flood warnings were 5-10’ there and they clear that area daily if boats, vests, stuff anyhow.

At no point did anything predict it would be a micro blast dump of water that would siphon that quickly down that part of the river and see the water rise 25-40’.

That’s ridiculous.

That’s like all of Georgetown, Roosevelt island, Rosslyn, DCA, Old Town 25-40’ water lines.

The most the Potomac has seen is 6’ tides and 10-12’ with hurricane surges. Downriver storm drainage can get voluminous and gross but not overflowing. Perhaps a nice blast & dump at Harper’s Ferry could do the trick and wipe it all out within 45 mins. Bye bye calleva, Madeira, great falls…

W

+1

If any river in this area rose 25-40', it would be devastating. It was devastating there.

[Anonymous]

https://www.globalcrisismgmtrpt.com/post/open-letter-from-former-nws-directors

Here's the letter from former NWS directors expressing their valid concerns regarding budget cuts to NOAA.

"NWS staff will have an impossible task to continue its current level of services. Some forecast offices will be so short-staffed that they may be forced to go to part time services. Not only are
there fewer forecasters, there are also fewer electronic technicians, who are responsible for maintaining the critical NEXRAD radars. Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast
offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life. We know that’s a nightmare shared by those on the forecasting front lines—and by the people who depend on
their efforts."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Suppose you're the owner/ operator of a camp that hosts 850 children on site at one time. Don't you think you would spring for a couple of overnight security people at $25 an hour to make sure everything is OK overnight, while all of the children and staff are sleeping??? Or are you OK to just go to sleep in the middle of the woods, away from everything, and hope nothing happens for 6-8 hours?[/b]

This is pretty normal setup from my experience with Girl Scout overnight camps. A camp would typically have a Director, an assistant director, and key staff including an RN, a caretaker, and the senior counselors (adults, usually in their 20s-30s). All of whom would be sleeping on site. It would not be normal to hire overnight security staff to... do what? One adult would stay awake for overnight duty. The lead counselor at each unit would typically stay awake up till midnight, and younger counselors (ages 16-18) typically would be assigned in or near camper tents/cabins.

We had a whistle/car horn emergency signal back in the 1980s. I remember using it once when a camper went missing around 11 PM! 5 long bursts meant we need help... come quickly! There was another system for "Evacuuate camp" and we did practice that, and even marked the spot where we would relocate.

A few security guards would not have helped here, I don't think. There were adult and teen staffers capable of waking girls up and moving them to higher ground IF they had understood the urgent necessity at the outset. I fear they had no idea how fast the water would rise, because again - it was HIGHLY unusual.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.globalcrisismgmtrpt.com/post/open-letter-from-former-nws-directors

Here's the letter from former NWS directors expressing their valid concerns regarding budget cuts to NOAA.

"NWS staff will have an impossible task to continue its current level of services. Some forecast offices will be so short-staffed that they may be forced to go to part time services. Not only are
there fewer forecasters, there are also fewer electronic technicians, who are responsible for maintaining the critical NEXRAD radars. Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast
offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life. We know that’s a nightmare shared by those on the forecasting front lines—and by the people who depend on
their efforts."

Yeah, but experts are saying that the forecast itself was correctly issued. So that wasn't the failure here. But what they are saying is that the people who used to take those forecasts and reach out to state and local officials - basically do outreach and communication - telling them they should pay attention -- those people retired/were forced/urged out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mystic did have a night watch and he raised the alarm at 2:00 am according to him. They started moving the lowest lying campers up to the Rec hall at that time. They were still moving kids when the flash flood came at about 4:00am. The two cabins where the kids were swept away were 25 ft up from the edge of the river, near the rec hall. The river has never risen that high before. The water rose more than that in 40 minutes and reached the Rec hall but it thankfully didn’t collapse. By the time they tried to get to other cabins near the rec hall the water was going up incredibly fast and one of the cabin walls collapsed. That was the cabin were all the girls were swept away. They were in the middle of getting the girls from the cabin beside it and rescued most of them but the camp director was swept away with a few girls. There was an interview with the night watchman.

If this account is true (I have no idea) it should not take 2 hours to move children to safety. TWO HOURS!!

I am guessing that at the start, they were still thinking that this was just precautionary. No one likes to wake up sleeping children, and they probably didn't really believe there was much chance of flooding (since it hadn't happened for decades) and that it would be a false alarm. And also, they probably were trying to evacuate safely by putting kids into cars and driving them up the hill to the higher buildings, likely together with their sleeping bags so they could have a comfortable night.

If they TRULY believed all the cabins were going to flood they would have been out there honking and screaming for the kids to get the hell out and just run up the hill. But my sense is, at first, that reaction would have felt like way too much.

The flooding, when it happened, happened way faster than most people had any experience with. And what was missing, apparently, was that middle level warning from NWS. The prediction of flooding was made, but usually there are some mid level people (apparently) whose job it is to get on the actual phone and start contacting state and county and maybe even town officials and telling them "Pay attention to this one, here's what could happen". I.e. putting it more into context.

Someone to call the camp director at 2 am And tell him how fast they could expect the flooding to happen if it was going to happen. Give him a timeline - 15 minutes to get to higher ground.

If I own a camp that is taking in more than $7 million a year ($4500 x 1700), at minimum, it is MY RESPONSIBILITY to ensure the safety of the people there. That means I HIRE people to be on top of all potential safety issues, including the weather, which is always a concern in the summer in Texas.

[Anonymous]

They had night guards.

Also there are really 2 different camps. The original Mystic camp is the one most affected. There are about 300-350 there. The other is Cypress.