Who in the world would buy or sell a house in the DMV right now?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a family member at Amazon and I definitely would not be buying a house right now if I worked there is all I’ll say.

?? Amazon isn’t reliant on the government. If anything, they will be lobbying for tons more govt business.

Amazon has publicly stated they plan to aggressively pursue lay offs. “Flatten the mgmt layer” or so they say. That’s why they pursued RTO so hard.

Ok…that’s on a global company wide basis.

However, locationally the DC office is a place to probably grow because the tech companies all want to benefit from the new administration.

Meta, Google and others are also increasing their DC presence right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just wrapped up a bidding war with three cash offers and two offers with over 50% down payments on a $1,370,000 house. My clients sold and another agent's clients bought and four other people want to by.

OK, but that doesn't really count. The true effect hasn't been felt yet. There are a whole group of people wanting to buy that are delusional and not seeing the forest for the trees just yet.

How does it not count…we are peak headline/pessimism risk here.

If you work at Hilton, Marriott, Capital One, and hundreds of other employers, then what are they deluded about?

[Anonymous]

The people who bought in 2024 obviously don't need to buy in 2025. They have their home. The question is if the 2025 buyers will show up.

[Anonymous]

We started looking in summer 2024. Still haven't found anything to even put an offer on (although admittedly our criteria are very specific). As of now we are still hoping to buy in 2025. Not feds or contractors, although if the effects of of the new administration's actions spread wide enough it could affect us somewhat.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous[b wrote:]I just watched two homes in Lake Barcroft, [/b]and one in Ravenwood go under contract in less than a week in 22044 which is a great zip zip code, but controversial for many because the Justice school pyramid is has a lot of ESOL. Clearly there are people who want to be close to DC, Amazon, Tysons, and other close-in areas who feel confident dropping $1.1-$1.6M.

I bet I looked at those ...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just watched two homes in Lake Barcroft, and one in Ravenwood go under contract in less than a week in 22044 which is a great zip zip code, but controversial for many because the Justice school pyramid is has a lot of ESOL. Clearly there are people who want to be close to DC, Amazon, Tysons, and other close-in areas who feel confident dropping $1.1-$1.6M.

Well, twitter is professing doom and gloom for DC and enjoying their fellow Americans losing their jobs so far. I think they expect fed tax refunds and no more federal taxes hoping all that's needed for this to happen is "drain the swamp", e.g. having fellow Americans lose their jobs and having to relocate.

Lol. "Draining the swamp" in this fashion eliminates a government expense that is de minimus. Ain't gonna pay for the dream of no-more-federal-taxes. Getting rid of Medicare and Social Security on the other hand ... we'll see how they like that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People are returning to work in DC in droves. They are looking for close-in homes near DC. After 5 years of working out of the house and moving away, people are returning and moving back.

He is firing 1/2 the federal work force and moving the rest. There are 4 time the number of contractors vs federal employees. Those people are gone. There will be a huge glut of housing as people are forced to sell.

That isn't happening. I'm saying that as a T voter. There will be at most 10% downsizing of the federal workforce.

It'll be 10% of the Federal workforce but significantly more contractors in conjunction. The main savings will come from programs getting cancelled - and then that will ripple over to contractors getting let go.

I thought that the point of firing fed employees was to increase the number of contractors

Not necessarily. Part of what is going on is to eliminate career civil servants that could potentially undermine the administration -- the so called "deep state." A shift to contractors could certainly help with this. But I do think they actually do want to tremendously shrink the fed government and throw responsibility for many if not most social programs onto the states. Which would not increase the number of contractors. You could argue it will just shift jobs to states, or to contractors doing work at the state level, but only to a certain extent -- without fed funds, the poorer states will just have to go without. This could do some major damage to things like education in places like Mississippi.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a family member at Amazon and I definitely would not be buying a house right now if I worked there is all I’ll say.

?? Amazon isn’t reliant on the government. If anything, they will be lobbying for tons more govt business.

Amazon has publicly stated they plan to aggressively pursue lay offs. “Flatten the mgmt layer” or so they say. That’s why they pursued RTO so hard.

A kid (22) we know got a job at Amazon for 140k 3 years ago. After 2 years they laid him off. After being diligent all his life studying CS, doing what he’s was told to do to get ahead, he still got no job security. He decided he was done, for now. A year ago he moved to Asia, a guess to bum around.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People who want to buy and sell?

I know Musk dropped the equivalent of a nuclear bomb (ten of them?) right into the heart of the Feds but most of us are not feds. However, I will be watching what unfolds with interest.

hello? The loss of employment will extend far beyond feds (contractors, NGOs, etc. etc)

Exactly. A contractor friend was telling me how much $$ in contracts Deloitte relies on.

A friend of mine is a partner at Deloitte and said that they aren’t expecting to take a big hit- many of their fed contracts are for years, and they aren’t getting signs of pull out on their negotiated contracts which are about to be signed. Who knows, though, maybe he was touting the party line for external pr.

This is definitely not true. You can go on Fishbowl right now and see people upset about the layoffs and furloughs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a family member at Amazon and I definitely would not be buying a house right now if I worked there is all I’ll say.

?? Amazon isn’t reliant on the government. If anything, they will be lobbying for tons more govt business.

Amazon has publicly stated they plan to aggressively pursue lay offs. “Flatten the mgmt layer” or so they say. That’s why they pursued RTO so hard.

A kid (22) we know got a job at Amazon for 140k 3 years ago. After 2 years they laid him off. After being diligent all his life studying CS, doing what he’s was told to do to get ahead, he still got no job security. He decided he was done, for now. A year ago he moved to Asia, a guess to bum around.

Amazon is well known to be a churn and burn outfit, especially on the AWS side. Many people go in knowing it’s going to be temporary, they just want it on their resume.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a family member at Amazon and I definitely would not be buying a house right now if I worked there is all I’ll say.

?? Amazon isn’t reliant on the government. If anything, they will be lobbying for tons more govt business.

Amazon has publicly stated they plan to aggressively pursue lay offs. “Flatten the mgmt layer” or so they say. That’s why they pursued RTO so hard.

A kid (22) we know got a job at Amazon for 140k 3 years ago. After 2 years they laid him off. After being diligent all his life studying CS, doing what he’s was told to do to get ahead, he still got no job security. He decided he was done, for now. A year ago he moved to Asia, a guess to bum around.

Amazon is well known to be a churn and burn outfit, especially on the AWS side. Many people go in knowing it’s going to be temporary, they just want it on their resume.

DP. I don’t blame the kid for taking the job but Amazon is definitely churn and burn.

That said, I have friends who work there and have survived for years (so far) so it might be possible to thread the needle for a while.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a family member at Amazon and I definitely would not be buying a house right now if I worked there is all I’ll say.

?? Amazon isn’t reliant on the government. If anything, they will be lobbying for tons more govt business.

Amazon has publicly stated they plan to aggressively pursue lay offs. “Flatten the mgmt layer” or so they say. That’s why they pursued RTO so hard.

A kid (22) we know got a job at Amazon for 140k 3 years ago. After 2 years they laid him off. After being diligent all his life studying CS, doing what he’s was told to do to get ahead, he still got no job security. He decided he was done, for now. A year ago he moved to Asia, a guess to bum around.

Oh the privilege ...

I did all the right things! I was diligent! I studied CS and did what I was told! I should have six figures at 22! Waaaa!!!!! Not fair!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:RTO is going to offset any layoffs as those feds will move closer in

Do you not get it? There is no RTO. They are laying off people. They were hoping people wouldn't come back. They are laying off government workers and ending contracts. DOGE is providing real time updates of the contracts they are ending by the hour.

I am surprised people think there will still be RTO given they are firing so many people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous[b wrote:]I just watched two homes in Lake Barcroft, [/b]and one in Ravenwood go under contract in less than a week in 22044 which is a great zip zip code, but controversial for many because the Justice school pyramid is has a lot of ESOL. Clearly there are people who want to be close to DC, Amazon, Tysons, and other close-in areas who feel confident dropping $1.1-$1.6M.

I bet I looked at those ...

I know who bought one of those!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:RTO is going to offset any layoffs as those feds will move closer in

Do you not get it? There is no RTO. They are laying off people. They were hoping people wouldn't come back. They are laying off government workers and ending contracts. DOGE is providing real time updates of the contracts they are ending by the hour.

It's awesome.