2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Latest polls all show that Cortez-Masto is going to lose in Nevada. So dems better hold Georgia AND Pennsylvania.

Nevada gonna dump a Latina senator and keep a Jewish one?
Wtf?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest polls all show that Cortez-Masto is going to lose in Nevada. So dems better hold Georgia AND Pennsylvania.

To keep 50-50, the Ds also need Arizona, which is not solidly D at this point.

Kelly is way ahead. Masters is a nutcase.

I don’t know what polls you’re looking at but Masters has been creeping up for a while now and some polls have him at only -3 or -1, which is realistically a 3 to 5 point lead at least considering how pollsters have underrepresented MAGA voters repeatedly in the past few elections. Masters will win this by a 2 to 5 point margin at least.

Same goes for all these Senate races. Take the polls and add at least 5-8 points in for Rs. I don’t know how anyone believes polls anymore after 2016 and 2020.

[Anonymous]

Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest polls all show that Cortez-Masto is going to lose in Nevada. So dems better hold Georgia AND Pennsylvania.

Nevada gonna dump a Latina senator and keep a Jewish one?
Wtf?

Cortex-Masto has long been considered the most vulnerable incumbent in this cycle.

Besides, gas is $5.50 a gallon in Nevada, up 30 cents from last week.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest polls all show that Cortez-Masto is going to lose in Nevada. So dems better hold Georgia AND Pennsylvania.

Nevada gonna dump a Latina senator and keep a Jewish one?
Wtf?

Cortex-Masto has long been considered the most vulnerable incumbent in this cycle.

Besides, gas is $5.50 a gallon in Nevada, up 30 cents from last week.

With OPEC cutting supply this will be commonplace in more states in the next month. Couldn’t have come at a worse time for Dems. Real Clear Politics has Rs gaining a majority in Senate and seating 52 Senators. I’d wager it’ll be even more if gas prices increase as much as people project based off OPEC cuts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

[Anonymous]

It's bad news for Oz that even Fox News is airing the latest Monmouth poll which is bad news for Dr. Oz. Basically, he has no winning positions for the residents of Pennsylvania. He may be drawing closer, but he has NO key issues where the citizens trust him more then his opponent. That's just hard to overcome.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/voters-trust-john-fetterman-over-dr-oz-economy-crime-and-immigration-poll

A new Monmouth University survey among voters in Pennsylvania found that despite Biden's underwater approval rating, the majority of voters trust Fetterman over Oz to best handle every issue of top concern, including abortion, the economy, crime and immigration.

Just 36% of respondents said they trusted Oz best on jobs, the economy and cost-of-living issues, compared to 45% who said the same of Fetterman. The poll showed an increase in the share who trusted Fetterman on the economy from 41% in Monmouth's September poll, while the percentage who trusted Oz more remained steady.

According to the poll, 55% of respondents have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, including the majority of likely independent voters, 66%, who have an unfavorable view of the president.

Economy, jobs and the cost of living were either very or extremely important to 87% of Pennsylvanians. The issue was of top concern to 45% of likely Republican voters, 38% of independents and 34% of Democrats.

Abortion was the issue of top concern to 44% of Democratic voters going into the midterms, ranking over inflation on their list of priorities. Among independent respondents in the Pennsylvania poll, only 21% felt that abortion was the most concerning issue facing the state, and 26% of Republicans said they were focused on the issue. Forty-eight percent said they trusted Fetterman more on the issue, compared to 29% who trusted Oz.

In Monmouth's September poll, voters were split on whether they trusted Fetterman or Oz more to handle immigration, with both candidates getting 34%. In the latest poll, 41% said Fetterman would be better on immigration, compared to 37% who said the same of Oz. On crime, 45% said they trusted Fetterman, compared to 38% who trusted Oz more.

Fetterman is leading the Pennsylvania Senate race with 48% support over Dr. Mehmet Oz's 43% support. However, the poll shows the race tightening as Oz's support marks a boost of 4 percentage points compared to a Monmouth poll conducted three weeks ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

[Anonymous]

In his campaign for a crucial U.S. Senate seat, Democrat John Fetterman takes credit for reinventing Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor’s office, transforming it from a political pit stop into a “bully pulpit” from which he’s advanced progressive causes.

Records from Fetterman’s four years in office, however, offer a different portrait of his time in the $179,000-a-year elected job. They show Fetterman typically kept a light work schedule and was often absent from state business, including presiding over the state Senate, which is one of his chief duties, according to an Associated Press review of his daily calendars and attendance records.

The review found that Fetterman’s daily schedule was blank during roughly one-third of workdays from January 2019, when he first took office, to May of this year, when he suffered a serious stroke. Even on days where his schedule showed he was active, a typical work day for Fetterman lasted between four and five hours, the records show.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

In his campaign for a crucial U.S. Senate seat, Democrat John Fetterman takes credit for reinventing Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor’s office, transforming it from a political pit stop into a “bully pulpit” from which he’s advanced progressive causes.

Records from Fetterman’s four years in office, however, offer a different portrait of his time in the $179,000-a-year elected job. They show Fetterman typically kept a light work schedule and was often absent from state business, including presiding over the state Senate, which is one of his chief duties, according to an Associated Press review of his daily calendars and attendance records.

The review found that Fetterman’s daily schedule was blank during roughly one-third of workdays from January 2019, when he first took office, to May of this year, when he suffered a serious stroke. Even on days where his schedule showed he was active, a typical work day for Fetterman lasted between four and five hours, the records show.

Sounds just like a recent high-profile GOP dude.

[Anonymous]

at least he actually lives in the state

[Anonymous]

Yes, I'm no fan of Fetterman, but the other guy is so unethical and incompetent that there's no comparison at all. You have one weird but acceptable person, and one ridiculous person guilty of televising his medical malpractice for years.

[Anonymous]

Tidbit for the 2024 Senate thread: one of the few halfway decent GOP Senators throwing in the towel