Biden 50%-48% Trump from latest Fox News poll: https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may |
Let's reconvene after the debate next week, shall we? One or the other should get a bump. |
Generally it takes a while for impressions of events to trickle down to the very-low-information masses. The polls conducted immediately after the debate will show you its impact on the media and the high-information voters. The way the media spins the event, and the way talking heads and people in the public eye opine on it on social media, will help frame the messaging for the next group, the medium-information voters. That takes about one or two weeks. But you want to do at least month out to capture the fuzzy feelings of the uninterested masses - and it's the masses that will decide this election, not the others. The very slight pro-Biden shift in multiple polls this week is about Trump's felony charges. That's how long it took. |
I think the polling is completely clucked. One poll has Trump neck and neck with Biden in urban centers and this new Fox one allegedly has Biden beating Trump by two points* in rural areas. Granted Trump’s policies kicked farmers hard in the teeth, and I think people are just sick of the orange devil, but… I don’t think so. https://www.newsweek.com/fox-news-poll-donald-trump-joe-biden-election-rural-voters-1915733 *per the reddit discussion of this, the above figure might just have been a typo, in which case, way to go, Fox! Great attention to detail. In other words: the polls don’t know what the clucking heck they’re doing. |
So this was your big poll bump after persecuting Trump? mmmkay.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/?ex_cid=abcpromo |
NY State prosecuted Trump. No one was persecuted. |
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It's "Joe-Mentum" |
Pretty sure all you MAGAs told me that Trump's polls would soar after he was convicted. You seem to have memory holed that. |
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So Newsom shot up last night? |