Trump and Republican Proposals: The Trump Administration and other Republican proposals examined aim to significantly limit federal Medicaid spending by restructuring Medicaid financing into a block grant or a per capita cap where states would receive a pre-set amount of funding for Medicaid in total or per enrollee. Typically, a base year of Medicaid spending would be established and then the aggregate or per enrollee caps would increase by a specified amount each year, typically tied to inflation or inflation plus some percentage. To generate federal savings, the total amount of federal spending would be less than what is expected under current law. Program costs in excess of the total or per enrollee caps would not be matched by the federal government, leaving states to cover these costs or reduce Medicaid spending. Proposals that cap federal Medicaid funding could also eliminate the entitlement to coverage or federal minimum requirements for eligibility and benefits. The Trump Administration FY 2020 budget proposed to convert federal Medicaid funding to a per capita allotment; this change along with other health care adjustments totaled $1 trillion in spending reductions relative to estimated spending under current law over 10 years. More recent Republican proposals, the RSC FY 2025 budget and Project 2025, call for capped Medicaid spending as well as a match rate of 50% for all eligibility groups and services (RSC FY 2025 budget) or a “blended” match rate (Project 2025).
Proposals that fundamentally change the financing structure and entitlement nature of the program would require legislative change and would have broad implications across all areas of Medicaid; however, even without legislative changes, presidential administrations have options to issue regulations or guidance as well as approve demonstration waivers which could result in incremental program changes. In lieu of major legislative changes to Medicaid financing, former President Trump also issued guidance and encouraged states to apply for Healthy Adult Opportunity waivers that offered states “extensive flexibility” to cover certain groups of enrollees in exchange for limits in federal financing and access to shared savings for spending below the set cap; however, no states were approved for such waivers. In addition to restructuring Medicaid financing, Republican proposals also include provisions to restrict the use of provider taxes, combat Medicaid improper payments, and improve program integrity.
Tradeoffs: Republican proposals would substantially reduce federal Medicaid spending and allow states additional flexibility to administer their programs. KFF analysis has found that Medicaid financing caps would also limit the ability of states to meet changing needs and demands (e.g. changing state demographics, emerging high-cost drugs, etc.), and could lock-in current state spending patterns that reflect historic Medicaid policy choices. States would likely have to make choices to cover fewer people, cut benefits, and/or lower payment rates for providers (though Medicaid is typically already the lowest payer), leaving more people uninsured and reliant on safety net providers or unable to access care. While states may gain additional flexibility to administer their programs, these new options are not likely to make up for significant cuts in federal spending. States would likely face challenges to maintaining coverage, with certain states (like those with higher health care costs or needs) more at risk. Proposed changes to the FMAP floor or the ACA match rate could reduce federal spending but have disparate effects on states. States with higher per capita incomes could be most affected by calls to lower the FMAP floor while states with lower per capita incomes could be most affected by proposals to have a uniform match rate of 50%. Across many Republican proposals, expansion states would fare worse than non-expansion states with proposals to reduce the expansion match.
https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/what-the-outcome-of-the-election-could-mean-for-medicaid/
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