Reply to Hurricane Milton

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Reply to "Hurricane Milton"

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[quote=Anonymous]
OP here again. Milton is now a category 5 hurricane.

Recently, models have become much better at predicting rapid intensification of hurricanes (a feature born of global warming). Milton's rapid intensification was predicted, but it intensified even more quickly than ever thought possible: from tropical storm to cat 5 in 24hours.

Milton is expected to "weaken" - that is, lower its sustained maximum wind speed near the eye. That does not make it functionally weaker, though, because decreasing the wind speed comes with a widening of the wind field (ie, the size of the hurricane), which increases the amount of damage on the ground.

Also, the fact that it is now a very powerful hurricane means that damage is being initiated as we speak: water surge is moving towards the Florida coast. Even if Milton lands as a downgraded cat 3, the surge will be more significant than if it had never developed beyond cat 3 winds. Past development matters when it comes to predicting hurricane damage.

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