Any other families finally had enough of DC?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well the population is now officially shrinking, per the census.

Actually the population is up 14.6% since the last census.

It shrank from the prior year estimate and I would be happy to wager that DC growth over the next decade will be easily surpassed by suburban growth.

The correct way to say this is: "The 2020 Census population count was smaller than the 2019 Census population estimate."

Which has at least 4 possible explanations:

1. The 2020 Census population count is wrong (an undercount).
2. The 2019 Census population estimate is wrong (an overestimate).
3. Both are wrong (an undercount in 2020 AND an overestimate in 2019).
4. Neither are wrong, and the population really did shrink between 2019 and 2020.

The Census Bureau has said they don't know which explanation is correct. I'm assuming that the Census Bureau knows more about the Census data than you do.

Meanwhile, the 2020 Census population count is 14.6% greater than the 2010 Census population count, so: the DC population is officially increasing.

Cool. Cool.

But, do you personally believe that YoY volatility w.r.t. population growth is impossible?

There is only one census and it takes place every ten years. The 2019 estimate is not the "Census." The 2019 estimate is part of the annual American Community Survey. The Census and the American Community Survey use different methedology and can diverge. You cannot plot data from the Census and the American Community Survey on one graph and come to any meaningful conclusion. Do not worry, the 2020 data from the American Community Survey will be available in the Fall.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well the population is now officially shrinking, per the census.

Actually the population is up 14.6% since the last census.

It shrank from the prior year estimate and I would be happy to wager that DC growth over the next decade will be easily surpassed by suburban growth.

The correct way to say this is: "The 2020 Census population count was smaller than the 2019 Census population estimate."

Which has at least 4 possible explanations:

1. The 2020 Census population count is wrong (an undercount).
2. The 2019 Census population estimate is wrong (an overestimate).
3. Both are wrong (an undercount in 2020 AND an overestimate in 2019).
4. Neither are wrong, and the population really did shrink between 2019 and 2020.

The Census Bureau has said they don't know which explanation is correct. I'm assuming that the Census Bureau knows more about the Census data than you do.

Meanwhile, the 2020 Census population count is 14.6% greater than the 2010 Census population count, so: the DC population is officially increasing.

Cool. Cool.

But, do you personally believe that YoY volatility w.r.t. population growth is impossible?

There is only one census and it takes place every ten years. The 2019 estimate is not the "Census." The 2019 estimate is part of the annual American Community Survey. The Census and the American Community Survey use different methedology and can diverge. You cannot plot data from the Census and the American Community Survey on one graph and come to any meaningful conclusion. Do not worry, the 2020 data from the American Community Survey will be available in the Fall.

You are not answering the question. The question is not about the census. The question is whether you believe that it is not possible for there to be YoY volatility in population.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There’s a reason why once people start having kids they move to upper northwest or close-in burbs. You can defend the crime all you want, though I’m not sure how crime is defensible, but it’s not a conducive environment to raise kids. The city is more alluring for young 20 somethings who come from somewhere else and want to try living in a city while they are young.

"People" who?

What do you mean “people” who? Any person who has a kid. Let’s not turn this into something else.

PP, perhaps you have noticed that there are many, many people in DC who do not move to upper NW or the close-in suburbs once they start having children.

That is currently true. Which is why the big zoning fight right now is to increase density in upper NW because those young white families are priced out of moving to upper NW but still want to.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well the population is now officially shrinking, per the census.

Actually the population is up 14.6% since the last census.

It shrank from the prior year estimate and I would be happy to wager that DC growth over the next decade will be easily surpassed by suburban growth.

The correct way to say this is: "The 2020 Census population count was smaller than the 2019 Census population estimate."

Which has at least 4 possible explanations:

1. The 2020 Census population count is wrong (an undercount).
2. The 2019 Census population estimate is wrong (an overestimate).
3. Both are wrong (an undercount in 2020 AND an overestimate in 2019).
4. Neither are wrong, and the population really did shrink between 2019 and 2020.

The Census Bureau has said they don't know which explanation is correct. I'm assuming that the Census Bureau knows more about the Census data than you do.

Meanwhile, the 2020 Census population count is 14.6% greater than the 2010 Census population count, so: the DC population is officially increasing.

Cool. Cool.

But, do you personally believe that YoY volatility w.r.t. population growth is impossible?

There is only one census and it takes place every ten years. The 2019 estimate is not the "Census." The 2019 estimate is part of the annual American Community Survey. The Census and the American Community Survey use different methedology and can diverge. You cannot plot data from the Census and the American Community Survey on one graph and come to any meaningful conclusion. Do not worry, the 2020 data from the American Community Survey will be available in the Fall.

You are not answering the question. The question is not about the census. The question is whether you believe that it is not possible for there to be YoY volatility in population.

I'm the poster you initially posed this question to, and I already answered it -- yes, of course it's possible, but no, I don't think comparing the 2019 estimate to the 2020 count shows that it happened. But why is this somewhat hypothetical question more important to you than the specifics of D.C.'s population change?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
You are not answering the question. The question is not about the census. The question is whether you believe that it is not possible for there to be YoY volatility in population.

That's kind of like saying, "The question is whether you believe Spiderman would beat Batman."

The meaningful question is whether there actually was a big change in the population of DC between 2019 and 2020, not whether it is hypothetically possible for there to be a big change in the population of a city between one year and the next - no?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Almost all homicides in DC are among persons known to each other. In other words, if you don't hang out with criminals and drug dealers, you don't have to worry about being murdered. A typical UMC white woman is at a greater risk of being murdered by the man sleeping in her bed than a stranger on the streets of DC.

What about armed carjackings? This was a rarity in my neighborhood and now I feel like there is one every week if not more.

Don't leave your car running unattended in the middle of the road because you can't be bothered to find a parking space to pick up your food delivery order. That alone would eliminate 90% of the carjackings in the city -- not to mention keep traffic flowing.

Or .... we could respect each other’s personal property I am not goi g to steal your car because it’s running and has the keys in it. But I was raised that way, wait a minute, no forget it.

+1. Right? I have so many family members who live in places where they don’t have to constantly keep track of whether they locked all the doors and did all of the other things to fortify the home for another day.

I've never lived anywhere where you didn't have to lock the doors, so this strikes me as a pretty low bar for D.C. to clear.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There’s a reason why once people start having kids they move to upper northwest or close-in burbs. You can defend the crime all you want, though I’m not sure how crime is defensible, but it’s not a conducive environment to raise kids. The city is more alluring for young 20 somethings who come from somewhere else and want to try living in a city while they are young.

"People" who?

What do you mean “people” who? Any person who has a kid. Let’s not turn this into something else.

PP, perhaps you have noticed that there are many, many people in DC who do not move to upper NW or the close-in suburbs once they start having children.

That is currently true. Which is why the big zoning fight right now is to increase density in upper NW because those young white families are priced out of moving to upper NW but still want to.

When you live in DCUMlandia, it's easy to believe that "people" means "the residents of DCUMlandia" and that everything is about the residents of DCUMlandia.

It's not true, though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Or .... we could respect each other’s personal property I am not goi g to steal your car because it’s running and has the keys in it. But I was raised that way, wait a minute, no forget it.

+1. Right? I have so many family members who live in places where they don’t have to constantly keep track of whether they locked all the doors and did all of the other things to fortify the home for another day.

The Montgomery County police keep reminding people to not leave their cars parked with the keys inside. In case you're thinking that this is a purely DC issue.

Also, speaking of fortifying the home - I lived in DC when everyone who could, put bars on all of their windows. I'm not seeing that now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well the population is now officially shrinking, per the census.

Actually the population is up 14.6% since the last census.

It shrank from the prior year estimate and I would be happy to wager that DC growth over the next decade will be easily surpassed by suburban growth.

The count was completed in April. You really think the city’s population shrank by April? Weeks after schools closed, with nothing else open anywhere in the region, and before any of the protests that people seem to think somehow caused crime waves and/or before most of the homicides being cited here as a reason to leave?

You personally believe that YoY volatility w.r.t. population growth is impossible? Fascinating. I am sure that you have evidence to support this theory?

Of course it's possible, but what seems likelier to you:

1) The city's population had been growing steadily for years, but then suddenly dropped between July 1, 2019, when the 2019 estimate was from, and April 1, 2020, the census count day, i.e., the day when you're supposed to say where you were living for purposes of the count. This population drop ostensibly occurred because of factors that mostly happened after April.
2) The city's population grew 14 percent between the 2010 Census and the 2020 Census, which are both actual counts as opposed to estimates based on samples, and the 2019 estimate turned out to be inaccurate when compared to the actual count.

Obviously people left D.C. last year (and died), but people also moved here (and were born). It's certainly possible that more people left than moved in, but comparing the 2019 estimate with the 2020 count isn't a valid way of demonstrating that.

2020 was an election year, with a likely change of administration during a global pandemic where colleges closed and there was a sudden and deep recession that particularly affected tourism, restaurants and services. So yes, I do believe that it is likely that the population decreased from April 2019 to April 2020.

The sudden recession started two and a half weeks before the count. Massive numbers of Washingtonians did not move out of town that quickly, especially since the recession was nationwide. And elections never lead to major population turnover here; just see the quadrennial "how will the election affect real estate???" posts on the real estate forum on DCUM, or if you want real evidence, look at the many studies that have shown that most people who take jobs in new administrations were already here working in non-exec branch positions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well the population is now officially shrinking, per the census.

Actually the population is up 14.6% since the last census.

It shrank from the prior year estimate and I would be happy to wager that DC growth over the next decade will be easily surpassed by suburban growth.

The correct way to say this is: "The 2020 Census population count was smaller than the 2019 Census population estimate."

Which has at least 4 possible explanations:

1. The 2020 Census population count is wrong (an undercount).
2. The 2019 Census population estimate is wrong (an overestimate).
3. Both are wrong (an undercount in 2020 AND an overestimate in 2019).
4. Neither are wrong, and the population really did shrink between 2019 and 2020.

The Census Bureau has said they don't know which explanation is correct. I'm assuming that the Census Bureau knows more about the Census data than you do.

Meanwhile, the 2020 Census population count is 14.6% greater than the 2010 Census population count, so: the DC population is officially increasing.

Cool. Cool.

But, do you personally believe that YoY volatility w.r.t. population growth is impossible?

Obviously a city's population CAN change a great deal from year to year. For example, compare the population of New Orleans in 2005 vs 2006.

But I'm not going to waste my time speculating about whether DC's population actually did change a great deal in 2019 vs. 2020. As the PP said, there's no obvious reason why it would have (unlike in New Orleans). Whereas there is the obvious possibility that either the estimate, the count, or both were wrong.

Here are some obvious reasons:
1. Election year with anticipated change in administrations
2. Global pandemic (DC public heath emergency announced March 11)
3. Immediate and sharp recession which particularly affected tourism/restaurant/service jobs with millions of jobs being shed daily (S&P500 bottomed on March 23)
4. Events precipitated ongoing shift, as Millennials (oldest are now 40) change demands from urban to suburban living as they form households

It is also possible that these continued conditions negatively impact population throughout the remainder of 2020 and beyond.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There’s a reason why once people start having kids they move to upper northwest or close-in burbs. You can defend the crime all you want, though I’m not sure how crime is defensible, but it’s not a conducive environment to raise kids. The city is more alluring for young 20 somethings who come from somewhere else and want to try living in a city while they are young.

"People" who?

What do you mean “people” who? Any person who has a kid. Let’s not turn this into something else.

PP, perhaps you have noticed that there are many, many people in DC who do not move to upper NW or the close-in suburbs once they start having children.

That is currently true. Which is why the big zoning fight right now is to increase density in upper NW because those young white families are priced out of moving to upper NW but still want to.

No, this is the DCUM cartoon of why the big zoning fight is happening. The idea behind increasing density in upper NW, as expressed by the city planners who are working on it, is to get Ward 3 and upper NW to house a more appropriate share of affordable housing than it does now, which isn't primarily targeting young wealthy white families.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
You are not answering the question. The question is not about the census. The question is whether you believe that it is not possible for there to be YoY volatility in population.

That's kind of like saying, "The question is whether you believe Spiderman would beat Batman."

The meaningful question is whether there actually was a big change in the population of DC between 2019 and 2020, not whether it is hypothetically possible for there to be a big change in the population of a city between one year and the next - no?

Why do you refuse to just directly answer the question? This is so funny. Like you cannot just admit the possibility that you could be wrong, even on something so minor. It's like incredible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There’s a reason why once people start having kids they move to upper northwest or close-in burbs. You can defend the crime all you want, though I’m not sure how crime is defensible, but it’s not a conducive environment to raise kids. The city is more alluring for young 20 somethings who come from somewhere else and want to try living in a city while they are young.

"People" who?

What do you mean “people” who? Any person who has a kid. Let’s not turn this into something else.

PP, perhaps you have noticed that there are many, many people in DC who do not move to upper NW or the close-in suburbs once they start having children.

That is currently true. Which is why the big zoning fight right now is to increase density in upper NW because those young white families are priced out of moving to upper NW but still want to.

DP: Here is a map of children in DC: https://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/map/6747-population-by-age-group-by-ward?loc=10&loct=3#21/any/false/false/1729/838/13833/Orange/

Wards 4, 7, and 8 have the most children under 18, and Ward 8 has double the number of children as Ward 3.

These numbers hold for public/charter school attendance: https://edscape.dc.gov/page/schools-enrollment-public-schools-ward

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Here are some obvious reasons:
1. Election year with anticipated change in administrations
2. Global pandemic (DC public heath emergency announced March 11)
3. Immediate and sharp recession which particularly affected tourism/restaurant/service jobs with millions of jobs being shed daily (S&P500 bottomed on March 23)
4. Events precipitated ongoing shift, as Millennials (oldest are now 40) change demands from urban to suburban living as they form households

It is also possible that these continued conditions negatively impact population throughout the remainder of 2020 and beyond.

So everybody moved out between March 11 and April 1? Gee, that's not what I remember happening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There’s a reason why once people start having kids they move to upper northwest or close-in burbs. You can defend the crime all you want, though I’m not sure how crime is defensible, but it’s not a conducive environment to raise kids. The city is more alluring for young 20 somethings who come from somewhere else and want to try living in a city while they are young.

"People" who?

What do you mean “people” who? Any person who has a kid. Let’s not turn this into something else.

PP, perhaps you have noticed that there are many, many people in DC who do not move to upper NW or the close-in suburbs once they start having children.

That is currently true. Which is why the big zoning fight right now is to increase density in upper NW because those young white families are priced out of moving to upper NW but still want to.

No, this is the DCUM cartoon of why the big zoning fight is happening. The idea behind increasing density in upper NW, as expressed by the city planners who are working on it, is to get Ward 3 and upper NW to house a more appropriate share of affordable housing than it does now, which isn't primarily targeting young wealthy white families.

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