Any other families finally had enough of DC?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Jeff should change the name of this website to Hysterical DC Urban Moms Who Should Be Clutching Their Pearls in the Suburbs.

DCUM: Where we take pride in our crime rates!

Right? The “if you don’t like crime, then you belong in the suburbs” mentality is so trite and played out.

The premise of this thread is literally "any other families finally had enough of DC?". It's hardly a stretch to infer that some of you would be happier in the suburbs. Was that not OP's point? DP.

Deciding where to live a complex, multifaceted, and interesting topic. Empty “if you don’t like crime, move to the suburbs” comments are just goofy and don’t contribute anything meaningful. I suspect they’re mostly made by naive city dwellers without children and people who just generally have low standards in life.

This, maybe? I was born in DC (not the Upper Caucasia part) and I sometimes wonder if these posters really hear what they’re saying. I get that they’re trying to be cool urbanites showing off their street cred, but taking any issue with crime rates=take to the Beltway?

Alrighty.

But this post is literally about people who are fed up with DC and considering moving to the suburbs. If you want to have a conversation to discuss the problems with the crime rate among people who are invested in the city and planning to stay, that's a different topic.

DP. No it’s not a different topic. This is that thread. We all make calculations about where we choose to live. Here are examples of people thinking about whether DC is right for them. I don’t care if you think certain subjects are political or too hot to handle or whatever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Almost all homicides in DC are among persons known to each other. In other words, if you don't hang out with criminals and drug dealers, you don't have to worry about being murdered. A typical UMC white woman is at a greater risk of being murdered by the man sleeping in her bed than a stranger on the streets of DC.

What about armed carjackings? This was a rarity in my neighborhood and now I feel like there is one every week if not more.

Don't leave your car running unattended in the middle of the road because you can't be bothered to find a parking space to pick up your food delivery order. That alone would eliminate 90% of the carjackings in the city -- not to mention keep traffic flowing.

Or .... we could respect each other’s personal property I am not goi g to steal your car because it’s running and has the keys in it. But I was raised that way, wait a minute, no forget it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Almost all homicides in DC are among persons known to each other. In other words, if you don't hang out with criminals and drug dealers, you don't have to worry about being murdered. A typical UMC white woman is at a greater risk of being murdered by the man sleeping in her bed than a stranger on the streets of DC.

What about armed carjackings? This was a rarity in my neighborhood and now I feel like there is one every week if not more.

Don't leave your car running unattended in the middle of the road because you can't be bothered to find a parking space to pick up your food delivery order. That alone would eliminate 90% of the carjackings in the city -- not to mention keep traffic flowing.

Or .... we could respect each other’s personal property I am not goi g to steal your car because it’s running and has the keys in it. But I was raised that way, wait a minute, no forget it.

+1. Right? I have so many family members who live in places where they don’t have to constantly keep track of whether they locked all the doors and did all of the other things to fortify the home for another day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well the population is now officially shrinking, per the census.

Actually the population is up 14.6% since the last census.

It shrank from the prior year estimate and I would be happy to wager that DC growth over the next decade will be easily surpassed by suburban growth.

The count was completed in April. You really think the city’s population shrank by April? Weeks after schools closed, with nothing else open anywhere in the region, and before any of the protests that people seem to think somehow caused crime waves and/or before most of the homicides being cited here as a reason to leave?

You personally believe that YoY volatility w.r.t. population growth is impossible? Fascinating. I am sure that you have evidence to support this theory?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Almost all homicides in DC are among persons known to each other. In other words, if you don't hang out with criminals and drug dealers, you don't have to worry about being murdered. A typical UMC white woman is at a greater risk of being murdered by the man sleeping in her bed than a stranger on the streets of DC.

What about armed carjackings? This was a rarity in my neighborhood and now I feel like there is one every week if not more.

Don't leave your car running unattended in the middle of the road because you can't be bothered to find a parking space to pick up your food delivery order. That alone would eliminate 90% of the carjackings in the city -- not to mention keep traffic flowing.

Or .... we could respect each other’s personal property I am not goi g to steal your car because it’s running and has the keys in it. But I was raised that way, wait a minute, no forget it.

+1. Right? I have so many family members who live in places where they don’t have to constantly keep track of whether they locked all the doors and did all of the other things to fortify the home for another day.

What gets me and is also simultaneously a good indicator that things are getting bad is that like this PP, people blame the victims of crime like its their fault. Like every should just expect that the entire world outside of our door is just out to get us. It's incredible frankly.

These people are all like, "durr, durr, its your fault that you had your car stolen with your baby in it while you were loading your groceries, it should not have been running to give your baby a/c and a place to rest because you don't have four hands" and "durr, durr, if you don't want someone to pickpocket you then you should have zippers with locks on them like smart people do, get a clue" or "durr, durr, if you don't want to get clipped by stray bullets in your own home then you should always wear a bullet proof vest. otherwise if you get shot its your fault".

How about we blame the criminals and not the crime victims? There are too many people in this city making excuses for criminals.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Almost all homicides in DC are among persons known to each other. In other words, if you don't hang out with criminals and drug dealers, you don't have to worry about being murdered. A typical UMC white woman is at a greater risk of being murdered by the man sleeping in her bed than a stranger on the streets of DC.

What about armed carjackings? This was a rarity in my neighborhood and now I feel like there is one every week if not more.

Don't leave your car running unattended in the middle of the road because you can't be bothered to find a parking space to pick up your food delivery order. That alone would eliminate 90% of the carjackings in the city -- not to mention keep traffic flowing.

Or .... we could respect each other’s personal property I am not goi g to steal your car because it’s running and has the keys in it. But I was raised that way, wait a minute, no forget it.

+1. Right? I have so many family members who live in places where they don’t have to constantly keep track of whether they locked all the doors and did all of the other things to fortify the home for another day.

What gets me and is also simultaneously a good indicator that things are getting bad is that like this PP, people blame the victims of crime like its their fault. Like every should just expect that the entire world outside of our door is just out to get us. It's incredible frankly.

These people are all like, "durr, durr, its your fault that you had your car stolen with your baby in it while you were loading your groceries, it should not have been running to give your baby a/c and a place to rest because you don't have four hands" and "durr, durr, if you don't want someone to pickpocket you then you should have zippers with locks on them like smart people do, get a clue" or "durr, durr, if you don't want to get clipped by stray bullets in your own home then you should always wear a bullet proof vest. otherwise if you get shot its your fault".

How about we blame the criminals and not the crime victims? There are too many people in this city making excuses for criminals.

DC native who left for suburbia a few years ago (though more for school/space reasons than crime). Shortly after we moved, I saw a kid’s bike left for several days on one of our neighborhood trails. My mind was blown that it stayed there for so long.

[Anonymous]

There’s a reason why once people start having kids they move to upper northwest or close-in burbs. You can defend the crime all you want, though I’m not sure how crime is defensible, but it’s not a conducive environment to raise kids. The city is more alluring for young 20 somethings who come from somewhere else and want to try living in a city while they are young.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There’s a reason why once people start having kids they move to upper northwest or close-in burbs. You can defend the crime all you want, though I’m not sure how crime is defensible, but it’s not a conducive environment to raise kids. The city is more alluring for young 20 somethings who come from somewhere else and want to try living in a city while they are young.

"People" who?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well the population is now officially shrinking, per the census.

Actually the population is up 14.6% since the last census.

It shrank from the prior year estimate and I would be happy to wager that DC growth over the next decade will be easily surpassed by suburban growth.

The count was completed in April. You really think the city’s population shrank by April? Weeks after schools closed, with nothing else open anywhere in the region, and before any of the protests that people seem to think somehow caused crime waves and/or before most of the homicides being cited here as a reason to leave?

You personally believe that YoY volatility w.r.t. population growth is impossible? Fascinating. I am sure that you have evidence to support this theory?

Of course it's possible, but what seems likelier to you:

1) The city's population had been growing steadily for years, but then suddenly dropped between July 1, 2019, when the 2019 estimate was from, and April 1, 2020, the census count day, i.e., the day when you're supposed to say where you were living for purposes of the count. This population drop ostensibly occurred because of factors that mostly happened after April.
2) The city's population grew 14 percent between the 2010 Census and the 2020 Census, which are both actual counts as opposed to estimates based on samples, and the 2019 estimate turned out to be inaccurate when compared to the actual count.

Obviously people left D.C. last year (and died), but people also moved here (and were born). It's certainly possible that more people left than moved in, but comparing the 2019 estimate with the 2020 count isn't a valid way of demonstrating that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well the population is now officially shrinking, per the census.

Actually the population is up 14.6% since the last census.

It shrank from the prior year estimate and I would be happy to wager that DC growth over the next decade will be easily surpassed by suburban growth.

The correct way to say this is: "The 2020 Census population count was smaller than the 2019 Census population estimate."

Which has at least 4 possible explanations:

1. The 2020 Census population count is wrong (an undercount).
2. The 2019 Census population estimate is wrong (an overestimate).
3. Both are wrong (an undercount in 2020 AND an overestimate in 2019).
4. Neither are wrong, and the population really did shrink between 2019 and 2020.

The Census Bureau has said they don't know which explanation is correct. I'm assuming that the Census Bureau knows more about the Census data than you do.

Meanwhile, the 2020 Census population count is 14.6% greater than the 2010 Census population count, so: the DC population is officially increasing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well the population is now officially shrinking, per the census.

Actually the population is up 14.6% since the last census.

It shrank from the prior year estimate and I would be happy to wager that DC growth over the next decade will be easily surpassed by suburban growth.

The correct way to say this is: "The 2020 Census population count was smaller than the 2019 Census population estimate."

Which has at least 4 possible explanations:

1. The 2020 Census population count is wrong (an undercount).
2. The 2019 Census population estimate is wrong (an overestimate).
3. Both are wrong (an undercount in 2020 AND an overestimate in 2019).
4. Neither are wrong, and the population really did shrink between 2019 and 2020.

The Census Bureau has said they don't know which explanation is correct. I'm assuming that the Census Bureau knows more about the Census data than you do.

Meanwhile, the 2020 Census population count is 14.6% greater than the 2010 Census population count, so: the DC population is officially increasing.

Cool. Cool.

But, do you personally believe that YoY volatility w.r.t. population growth is impossible?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There’s a reason why once people start having kids they move to upper northwest or close-in burbs. You can defend the crime all you want, though I’m not sure how crime is defensible, but it’s not a conducive environment to raise kids. The city is more alluring for young 20 somethings who come from somewhere else and want to try living in a city while they are young.

"People" who?

What do you mean “people” who? Any person who has a kid. Let’s not turn this into something else.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There’s a reason why once people start having kids they move to upper northwest or close-in burbs. You can defend the crime all you want, though I’m not sure how crime is defensible, but it’s not a conducive environment to raise kids. The city is more alluring for young 20 somethings who come from somewhere else and want to try living in a city while they are young.

"People" who?

What do you mean “people” who? Any person who has a kid. Let’s not turn this into something else.

PP, perhaps you have noticed that there are many, many people in DC who do not move to upper NW or the close-in suburbs once they start having children.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well the population is now officially shrinking, per the census.

Actually the population is up 14.6% since the last census.

It shrank from the prior year estimate and I would be happy to wager that DC growth over the next decade will be easily surpassed by suburban growth.

The count was completed in April. You really think the city’s population shrank by April? Weeks after schools closed, with nothing else open anywhere in the region, and before any of the protests that people seem to think somehow caused crime waves and/or before most of the homicides being cited here as a reason to leave?

You personally believe that YoY volatility w.r.t. population growth is impossible? Fascinating. I am sure that you have evidence to support this theory?

Of course it's possible, but what seems likelier to you:

1) The city's population had been growing steadily for years, but then suddenly dropped between July 1, 2019, when the 2019 estimate was from, and April 1, 2020, the census count day, i.e., the day when you're supposed to say where you were living for purposes of the count. This population drop ostensibly occurred because of factors that mostly happened after April.
2) The city's population grew 14 percent between the 2010 Census and the 2020 Census, which are both actual counts as opposed to estimates based on samples, and the 2019 estimate turned out to be inaccurate when compared to the actual count.

Obviously people left D.C. last year (and died), but people also moved here (and were born). It's certainly possible that more people left than moved in, but comparing the 2019 estimate with the 2020 count isn't a valid way of demonstrating that.

2020 was an election year, with a likely change of administration during a global pandemic where colleges closed and there was a sudden and deep recession that particularly affected tourism, restaurants and services. So yes, I do believe that it is likely that the population decreased from April 2019 to April 2020.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well the population is now officially shrinking, per the census.

Actually the population is up 14.6% since the last census.

It shrank from the prior year estimate and I would be happy to wager that DC growth over the next decade will be easily surpassed by suburban growth.

The correct way to say this is: "The 2020 Census population count was smaller than the 2019 Census population estimate."

Which has at least 4 possible explanations:

1. The 2020 Census population count is wrong (an undercount).
2. The 2019 Census population estimate is wrong (an overestimate).
3. Both are wrong (an undercount in 2020 AND an overestimate in 2019).
4. Neither are wrong, and the population really did shrink between 2019 and 2020.

The Census Bureau has said they don't know which explanation is correct. I'm assuming that the Census Bureau knows more about the Census data than you do.

Meanwhile, the 2020 Census population count is 14.6% greater than the 2010 Census population count, so: the DC population is officially increasing.

Cool. Cool.

But, do you personally believe that YoY volatility w.r.t. population growth is impossible?

Obviously a city's population CAN change a great deal from year to year. For example, compare the population of New Orleans in 2005 vs 2006.

But I'm not going to waste my time speculating about whether DC's population actually did change a great deal in 2019 vs. 2020. As the PP said, there's no obvious reason why it would have (unlike in New Orleans). Whereas there is the obvious possibility that either the estimate, the count, or both were wrong.