Biden’s latest Poll numbers

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is 45% supposed to be good? Basically means 55% don’t approve of Biden.

After four years of the alleged to be liberal media going hard against Biden? Yeah, 45% is pretty good.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NEW HAMPSHIRE 2024: Marist (A)

Biden: 52% (+7)
Trump: 45%
.
Haley: 47% (+3)
Biden: 44%
.
Biden: 51% (+9)
DeSantis: 42%
.
Biden: 44% (+3)
Trump: 41%
RFK Jr: 12%
—
Generic Ballot
Republicans: 48% (+1)
Democrats: 47%
—
1,157 RV | 1/15-17 | MoE: ±3.8%
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-presidential-contest-in-new-hampshire/

Trump drags the party down 8 points. Impressive!

I'd vote for Christie over Biden. I'd consider Haley over Biden. I will never vote for Trump

60% of eligible voters will never vote for Trump under any circumstance which in a historically normal presidential election would give him very little chance of victory. Against Biden he has a 50/50 chance of winning. Against a less unpopular Dem presidential candidate Trump chances of winning would be slim to none as they should be.

Evidence?

The actual percentage of never Trump voting eligible voters is likely higher than 60%. A significant number of these eligible voters that are never Trump voters will be part of the 30% of eligible voters that won't vote in the 2024 election. An example of how the numbers in the 2024 election could go- of the eligible voters that do vote, approximately 45% vote for Trump, 45% vote for Biden and 10% vote for a 3rd party. The percentage of votes that go to 3rd party candidates is a big variable that will depend on many TBD factors. 98% of the total votes going to Trump and Biden again in 2024 seems very unlikely considering how unpopular they have become. There is opportunity for the 3rd party candidates currently running to pull in at least 10% of the total votes. If No Labels does as they have said they would and fields a candidate once a Trump vs Biden rematch becomes official, they could pull in a much higher percentage of the total votes if they were to convince big name R or D politicians to run on their ticket and they were to put forth a moderate political platform with messaging that isn't as divisive as the messaging of the two major political parties.

Currently Larry Hogan is the odds on favorite. He is a very pro-life candidate who is more likely to pull from Trump than Biden.

Someone like Hogan could beat both Trump and Biden if they enter the race early enough to build momentum in time to collect typically loyal R and D voters by November. Trump and Biden would still receive their fair share of votes but at least a third of voters would jump at the chance to vote for a normal candidate. There are moderate R and D politicians out there that have name recognition, relative experience, aren't pushing the limits father time's impacts on human mind and body, and aren't divisively unhinged like Trump. If such a viable candidate did enter the race, gathered some momentum over the summer, and was able to get Trump and Biden on stage in an unscripted debate, it would be quite the spectacle and a huge opportunity for Americans to see the difference between presidential and not presidential.

A candidate needs the manpower of a major party to take the Presidency. Larry Hogan won't do it because he doesn't have the money or manpower to mount a credible presidential campaign. Sure, he will get a bunch of "independents" who are happy to vote for him, but those people are not volunteering for him every weekend to get his name on the ballots in 50 states + overseas territories. You can't just "plug & play" campaign infrastructure on your own - this is why the party apparatus is so important. Biden and Trump are likely already placing huge ad buys right now for all of September to Election Day in the swing states. Someone like Hogan - if he jumped in now - wouldn't even be able to buy ads once he wrangled up his money and a staff.

If folks truly want to bring down the two party system, the only way to do that is to do the hard work of building a new party from the ground up. Win city council seats, mayoral races, state houses, then seats in Congress. It's a long game to play.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is 45% supposed to be good? Basically means 55% don’t approve of Biden.

After four years of the alleged to be liberal media going hard against Biden? Yeah, 45% is pretty good.

So well over half of the electorate disapprove of Biden? Sounds about right.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is 45% supposed to be good? Basically means 55% don’t approve of Biden.

Look, a bit less than half of the country may approve in your polls. But that does not mean 55% approve of trump. There is some percentage of that 55% that does. Then there are the people who are (unbelievably yet still exist) undecided and a percentage that won't vote at all. It is that mix of people who will decide things.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is 45% supposed to be good? Basically means 55% don’t approve of Biden.

Look, a bit less than half of the country may approve in your polls. But that does not mean 55% approve of trump. There is some percentage of that 55% that does. Then there are the people who are (unbelievably yet still exist) undecided and a percentage that won't vote at all. It is that mix of people who will decide things.

Ma’am, this is a Wendy’s.

(This is about Biden, not Trump.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NEW HAMPSHIRE 2024: Marist (A)

Biden: 52% (+7)
Trump: 45%
.
Haley: 47% (+3)
Biden: 44%
.
Biden: 51% (+9)
DeSantis: 42%
.
Biden: 44% (+3)
Trump: 41%
RFK Jr: 12%
—
Generic Ballot
Republicans: 48% (+1)
Democrats: 47%
—
1,157 RV | 1/15-17 | MoE: ±3.8%
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-presidential-contest-in-new-hampshire/

Trump drags the party down 8 points. Impressive!

I'd vote for Christie over Biden. I'd consider Haley over Biden. I will never vote for Trump

60% of eligible voters will never vote for Trump under any circumstance which in a historically normal presidential election would give him very little chance of victory. Against Biden he has a 50/50 chance of winning. Against a less unpopular Dem presidential candidate Trump chances of winning would be slim to none as they should be.

Evidence?

The actual percentage of never Trump voting eligible voters is likely higher than 60%. A significant number of these eligible voters that are never Trump voters will be part of the 30% of eligible voters that won't vote in the 2024 election. An example of how the numbers in the 2024 election could go- of the eligible voters that do vote, approximately 45% vote for Trump, 45% vote for Biden and 10% vote for a 3rd party. The percentage of votes that go to 3rd party candidates is a big variable that will depend on many TBD factors. 98% of the total votes going to Trump and Biden again in 2024 seems very unlikely considering how unpopular they have become. There is opportunity for the 3rd party candidates currently running to pull in at least 10% of the total votes. If No Labels does as they have said they would and fields a candidate once a Trump vs Biden rematch becomes official, they could pull in a much higher percentage of the total votes if they were to convince big name R or D politicians to run on their ticket and they were to put forth a moderate political platform with messaging that isn't as divisive as the messaging of the two major political parties.

Currently Larry Hogan is the odds on favorite. He is a very pro-life candidate who is more likely to pull from Trump than Biden.

Someone like Hogan could beat both Trump and Biden if they enter the race early enough to build momentum in time to collect typically loyal R and D voters by November. Trump and Biden would still receive their fair share of votes but at least a third of voters would jump at the chance to vote for a normal candidate. There are moderate R and D politicians out there that have name recognition, relative experience, aren't pushing the limits father time's impacts on human mind and body, and aren't divisively unhinged like Trump. If such a viable candidate did enter the race, gathered some momentum over the summer, and was able to get Trump and Biden on stage in an unscripted debate, it would be quite the spectacle and a huge opportunity for Americans to see the difference between presidential and not presidential.

A candidate needs the manpower of a major party to take the Presidency. Larry Hogan won't do it because he doesn't have the money or manpower to mount a credible presidential campaign. Sure, he will get a bunch of "independents" who are happy to vote for him, but those people are not volunteering for him every weekend to get his name on the ballots in 50 states + overseas territories. You can't just "plug & play" campaign infrastructure on your own - this is why the party apparatus is so important. Biden and Trump are likely already placing huge ad buys right now for all of September to Election Day in the swing states. Someone like Hogan - if he jumped in now - wouldn't even be able to buy ads once he wrangled up his money and a staff.

If folks truly want to bring down the two party system, the only way to do that is to do the hard work of building a new party from the ground up. Win city council seats, mayoral races, state houses, then seats in Congress. It's a long game to play.

True for the most part but I don't think you are factoring in the unprecedented dynamics of the 2024 election relative to any past election. We've never had two major party nominees as old and unpopular as the presumed nominees, Trump and Biden and this opens the door for things to happen that have never happened or rarely happen. The most likely 2024 election scenario is Trump and Biden becoming the nominees and receiving 90% to 95% of the total votes in November in a very, very close race but there are other possibilities that could change this likely outcome. Not only does Trump have the age/health concern and the very unfavorable view from a majority of Americans, he also has serious legal concerns. Nothing related to the 2024 election is a guarantee at this point and it's more possible than ever for there to be some surprises that shake things up between now and November.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is 45% supposed to be good? Basically means 55% don’t approve of Biden.

Look, a bit less than half of the country may approve in your polls. But that does not mean 55% approve of trump. There is some percentage of that 55% that does. Then there are the people who are (unbelievably yet still exist) undecided and a percentage that won't vote at all. It is that mix of people who will decide things.

Ma’am, this is a Wendy’s.

(This is about Biden, not Trump.)

You cannot talk one's polls w/o the other at this point, if the point of this is the election (which it is).

Further, the point remains. A big part of the US citizens will NEVER approve of a dem president, and vice versa. And a less than 50% approval rating is more common than you would think. Trump, for example, his numbers never got over 50% and it was as low as 30 something percent. Obama's, while at times in excess of 60%, the average approval rating was not at 50%. Same for GWB.

So you'd like it to be that a less than 50% rating is something notable. It is, in fact, not.

[Anonymous]

Glenn Youngkin is at 58 percent approval.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Glenn Youngkin is at 58 percent approval.

He’s too chicken to run for President, though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NEW HAMPSHIRE 2024: Marist (A)

Biden: 52% (+7)
Trump: 45%
.
Haley: 47% (+3)
Biden: 44%
.
Biden: 51% (+9)
DeSantis: 42%
.
Biden: 44% (+3)
Trump: 41%
RFK Jr: 12%
—
Generic Ballot
Republicans: 48% (+1)
Democrats: 47%
—
1,157 RV | 1/15-17 | MoE: ±3.8%
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-presidential-contest-in-new-hampshire/

Trump drags the party down 8 points. Impressive!

I'd vote for Christie over Biden. I'd consider Haley over Biden. I will never vote for Trump

60% of eligible voters will never vote for Trump under any circumstance which in a historically normal presidential election would give him very little chance of victory. Against Biden he has a 50/50 chance of winning. Against a less unpopular Dem presidential candidate Trump chances of winning would be slim to none as they should be.

Evidence?

The actual percentage of never Trump voting eligible voters is likely higher than 60%. A significant number of these eligible voters that are never Trump voters will be part of the 30% of eligible voters that won't vote in the 2024 election. An example of how the numbers in the 2024 election could go- of the eligible voters that do vote, approximately 45% vote for Trump, 45% vote for Biden and 10% vote for a 3rd party. The percentage of votes that go to 3rd party candidates is a big variable that will depend on many TBD factors. 98% of the total votes going to Trump and Biden again in 2024 seems very unlikely considering how unpopular they have become. There is opportunity for the 3rd party candidates currently running to pull in at least 10% of the total votes. If No Labels does as they have said they would and fields a candidate once a Trump vs Biden rematch becomes official, they could pull in a much higher percentage of the total votes if they were to convince big name R or D politicians to run on their ticket and they were to put forth a moderate political platform with messaging that isn't as divisive as the messaging of the two major political parties.

Currently Larry Hogan is the odds on favorite. He is a very pro-life candidate who is more likely to pull from Trump than Biden.

Someone like Hogan could beat both Trump and Biden if they enter the race early enough to build momentum in time to collect typically loyal R and D voters by November. Trump and Biden would still receive their fair share of votes but at least a third of voters would jump at the chance to vote for a normal candidate. There are moderate R and D politicians out there that have name recognition, relative experience, aren't pushing the limits father time's impacts on human mind and body, and aren't divisively unhinged like Trump. If such a viable candidate did enter the race, gathered some momentum over the summer, and was able to get Trump and Biden on stage in an unscripted debate, it would be quite the spectacle and a huge opportunity for Americans to see the difference between presidential and not presidential.

A candidate needs the manpower of a major party to take the Presidency. Larry Hogan won't do it because he doesn't have the money or manpower to mount a credible presidential campaign. Sure, he will get a bunch of "independents" who are happy to vote for him, but those people are not volunteering for him every weekend to get his name on the ballots in 50 states + overseas territories. You can't just "plug & play" campaign infrastructure on your own - this is why the party apparatus is so important. Biden and Trump are likely already placing huge ad buys right now for all of September to Election Day in the swing states. Someone like Hogan - if he jumped in now - wouldn't even be able to buy ads once he wrangled up his money and a staff.

If folks truly want to bring down the two party system, the only way to do that is to do the hard work of building a new party from the ground up. Win city council seats, mayoral races, state houses, then seats in Congress. It's a long game to play.

True and it seems there are a couple groups aiming to do just that. It takes time and money.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is 45% supposed to be good? Basically means 55% don’t approve of Biden.

Look, a bit less than half of the country may approve in your polls. But that does not mean 55% approve of trump. There is some percentage of that 55% that does. Then there are the people who are (unbelievably yet still exist) undecided and a percentage that won't vote at all. It is that mix of people who will decide things.

Ma’am, this is a Wendy’s.

(This is about Biden, not Trump.)

You cannot talk one's polls w/o the other at this point, if the point of this is the election (which it is).

Further, the point remains. A big part of the US citizens will NEVER approve of a dem president, and vice versa. And a less than 50% approval rating is more common than you would think. Trump, for example, his numbers never got over 50% and it was as low as 30 something percent. Obama's, while at times in excess of 60%, the average approval rating was not at 50%. Same for GWB.

So you'd like it to be that a less than 50% rating is something notable. It is, in fact, not.

Biden's going to pick up: a) those Republicans who can't abide Trump and thought maybe he'd get beaten in the primaries; and b) those Democrats and people who disapprove of Biden mainly because they want someone further to the left and will come to realize that no one like that is coming up in 2024. I think Trump has a hard cap on his poll numbers and Biden's cap is much softer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is 45% supposed to be good? Basically means 55% don’t approve of Biden.

Look, a bit less than half of the country may approve in your polls. But that does not mean 55% approve of trump. There is some percentage of that 55% that does. Then there are the people who are (unbelievably yet still exist) undecided and a percentage that won't vote at all. It is that mix of people who will decide things.

Ma’am, this is a Wendy’s.

(This is about Biden, not Trump.)

You cannot talk one's polls w/o the other at this point, if the point of this is the election (which it is).

Further, the point remains. A big part of the US citizens will NEVER approve of a dem president, and vice versa. And a less than 50% approval rating is more common than you would think. Trump, for example, his numbers never got over 50% and it was as low as 30 something percent. Obama's, while at times in excess of 60%, the average approval rating was not at 50%. Same for GWB.

So you'd like it to be that a less than 50% rating is something notable. It is, in fact, not.

Biden's going to pick up: a) those Republicans who can't abide Trump and thought maybe he'd get beaten in the primaries; and b) those Democrats and people who disapprove of Biden mainly because they want someone further to the left and will come to realize that no one like that is coming up in 2024. I think Trump has a hard cap on his poll numbers and Biden's cap is much softer.

I hope you are right but there are GOP voters out there that are currently hoping for a better option than Trump but will vote for him in the general election against any Dem. The fact that Trump has over performed on election day relative to polling data in both 2016 and 2020 is concerning as well. If Trump and Biden are the nominees, it will be a very, very close electoral vote outcome.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Glenn Youngkin is at 58 percent approval.

He’s too smart to run for President, though.

FIFY.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is 45% supposed to be good? Basically means 55% don’t approve of Biden.

Look, a bit less than half of the country may approve in your polls. But that does not mean 55% approve of trump. There is some percentage of that 55% that does. Then there are the people who are (unbelievably yet still exist) undecided and a percentage that won't vote at all. It is that mix of people who will decide things.

Ma’am, this is a Wendy’s.

(This is about Biden, not Trump.)

You cannot talk one's polls w/o the other at this point, if the point of this is the election (which it is).

Further, the point remains. A big part of the US citizens will NEVER approve of a dem president, and vice versa. And a less than 50% approval rating is more common than you would think. Trump, for example, his numbers never got over 50% and it was as low as 30 something percent. Obama's, while at times in excess of 60%, the average approval rating was not at 50%. Same for GWB.

So you'd like it to be that a less than 50% rating is something notable. It is, in fact, not.

Biden's going to pick up: a) those Republicans who can't abide Trump and thought maybe he'd get beaten in the primaries; and b) those Democrats and people who disapprove of Biden mainly because they want someone further to the left and will come to realize that no one like that is coming up in 2024. I think Trump has a hard cap on his poll numbers and Biden's cap is much softer.

This is what I believe as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is 45% supposed to be good? Basically means 55% don’t approve of Biden.

Look, a bit less than half of the country may approve in your polls. But that does not mean 55% approve of trump. There is some percentage of that 55% that does. Then there are the people who are (unbelievably yet still exist) undecided and a percentage that won't vote at all. It is that mix of people who will decide things.

Ma’am, this is a Wendy’s.

(This is about Biden, not Trump.)

You cannot talk one's polls w/o the other at this point, if the point of this is the election (which it is).

Further, the point remains. A big part of the US citizens will NEVER approve of a dem president, and vice versa. And a less than 50% approval rating is more common than you would think. Trump, for example, his numbers never got over 50% and it was as low as 30 something percent. Obama's, while at times in excess of 60%, the average approval rating was not at 50%. Same for GWB.

So you'd like it to be that a less than 50% rating is something notable. It is, in fact, not.

Biden's going to pick up: a) those Republicans who can't abide Trump and thought maybe he'd get beaten in the primaries; and b) those Democrats and people who disapprove of Biden mainly because they want someone further to the left and will come to realize that no one like that is coming up in 2024. I think Trump has a hard cap on his poll numbers and Biden's cap is much softer.

I hope you are right but there are GOP voters out there that are currently hoping for a better option than Trump but will vote for him in the general election against any Dem. The fact that Trump has over performed on election day relative to polling data in both 2016 and 2020 is concerning as well. If Trump and Biden are the nominees, it will be a very, very close electoral vote outcome.

Did he over perform in 2020?

In any event, that was before he tried to overthrow our government. If a majority is voting for him after that, our country deserves to go to hell. The Greatest Generation fought against this shit, and if we voluntarily throw away our birthright, we don’t deserve to self-govern.