Biden’s latest Poll numbers

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01/23/2024 06:08

Subject: Re:Biden’s latest Poll numbers

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Anonymous wrote:NEW HAMPSHIRE 2024: Marist (A)

Biden: 52% (+7)
Trump: 45%
.
Haley: 47% (+3)
Biden: 44%
.
Biden: 51% (+9)
DeSantis: 42%
.
Biden: 44% (+3)
Trump: 41%
RFK Jr: 12%
—
Generic Ballot
Republicans: 48% (+1)
Democrats: 47%
—
1,157 RV | 1/15-17 | MoE: ±3.8%
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-presidential-contest-in-new-hampshire/

Trump drags the party down 8 points. Impressive!

I'd vote for Christie over Biden. I'd consider Haley over Biden. I will never vote for Trump

60% of eligible voters will never vote for Trump under any circumstance which in a historically normal presidential election would give him very little chance of victory. Against Biden he has a 50/50 chance of winning. Against a less unpopular Dem presidential candidate Trump chances of winning would be slim to none as they should be.

Evidence?

The actual percentage of never Trump voting eligible voters is likely higher than 60%. A significant number of these eligible voters that are never Trump voters will be part of the 30% of eligible voters that won't vote in the 2024 election. An example of how the numbers in the 2024 election could go- of the eligible voters that do vote, approximately 45% vote for Trump, 45% vote for Biden and 10% vote for a 3rd party. The percentage of votes that go to 3rd party candidates is a big variable that will depend on many TBD factors. 98% of the total votes going to Trump and Biden again in 2024 seems very unlikely considering how unpopular they have become. There is opportunity for the 3rd party candidates currently running to pull in at least 10% of the total votes. If No Labels does as they have said they would and fields a candidate once a Trump vs Biden rematch becomes official, they could pull in a much higher percentage of the total votes if they were to convince big name R or D politicians to run on their ticket and they were to put forth a moderate political platform with messaging that isn't as divisive as the messaging of the two major political parties.

Currently Larry Hogan is the odds on favorite. He is a very pro-life candidate who is more likely to pull from Trump than Biden.

Someone like Hogan could beat both Trump and Biden if they enter the race early enough to build momentum in time to collect typically loyal R and D voters by November. Trump and Biden would still receive their fair share of votes but at least a third of voters would jump at the chance to vote for a normal candidate. There are moderate R and D politicians out there that have name recognition, relative experience, aren't pushing the limits father time's impacts on human mind and body, and aren't divisively unhinged like Trump. If such a viable candidate did enter the race, gathered some momentum over the summer, and was able to get Trump and Biden on stage in an unscripted debate, it would be quite the spectacle and a huge opportunity for Americans to see the difference between presidential and not presidential.

A candidate needs the manpower of a major party to take the Presidency. Larry Hogan won't do it because he doesn't have the money or manpower to mount a credible presidential campaign. Sure, he will get a bunch of "independents" who are happy to vote for him, but those people are not volunteering for him every weekend to get his name on the ballots in 50 states + overseas territories. You can't just "plug & play" campaign infrastructure on your own - this is why the party apparatus is so important. Biden and Trump are likely already placing huge ad buys right now for all of September to Election Day in the swing states. Someone like Hogan - if he jumped in now - wouldn't even be able to buy ads once he wrangled up his money and a staff.

If folks truly want to bring down the two party system, the only way to do that is to do the hard work of building a new party from the ground up. Win city council seats, mayoral races, state houses, then seats in Congress. It's a long game to play.

True and it seems there are a couple groups aiming to do just that. It takes time and money.

Where are those groups doing that? I see third party groups doing the same crap they’ve done for twenty years: running spoilers and interfering in democracy - unless perhaps you think Republican PAC No Labels’s idea to interfere in the certification is a democratic idea.

Third party candidates don’t work to further their ideals. They are the libertarian house cats we all joke about.

If that band of disaffected and arrogant voters had spent the last twenty years voting Democratic instead of SeNdInG a MeSsAgE, we wouldn’t have had 9/11, the Patriot Act, Afghanistan, Iraq, covid, we wouldn’t have lost Roe because we’d have a decent Court and we wouldn’t have one political party nominating the guy who stole classified documents. Oh and we’d probably have been working to halt climate change. But here we are. Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein.