Did you see the results in 2016 and 2020? Do you think there are new voters who are going to support Trump? All those kids who were in grade school and high school during Trump's administration of a COVID response? All those kids who had gun drills in schools? All those kids who are seeing their right to manage their bodies disappear and Trump boasting about it? Ya, that is a whole generation of kids who have come of age who know the stakes. |
Unfortunately Generic Democrat is not running and will never run. In 2020, Biden was better liked than the other Democratic candidates. If any of those Democrats had decided to run in a 2024 primary, I still don't think they could beat him. He's accomplished more than any Democratic President since LBJ and not having the incumbent run is always a disaster. |
So no evidence. |
The actual percentage of never Trump voting eligible voters is likely higher than 60%. A significant number of these eligible voters that are never Trump voters will be part of the 30% of eligible voters that won't vote in the 2024 election. An example of how the numbers in the 2024 election could go- of the eligible voters that do vote, approximately 45% vote for Trump, 45% vote for Biden and 10% vote for a 3rd party. The percentage of votes that go to 3rd party candidates is a big variable that will depend on many TBD factors. 98% of the total votes going to Trump and Biden again in 2024 seems very unlikely considering how unpopular they have become. There is opportunity for the 3rd party candidates currently running to pull in at least 10% of the total votes. If No Labels does as they have said they would and fields a candidate once a Trump vs Biden rematch becomes official, they could pull in a much higher percentage of the total votes if they were to convince big name R or D politicians to run on their ticket and they were to put forth a moderate political platform with messaging that isn't as divisive as the messaging of the two major political parties. |
The evidence is in the elections in Kansas, Ohio and other off year elections over the past two years. |
Pulling numbers out of your a$$ is not evidence. |
How does that show anything about how Biden v. Trump would be 50/50 while Trump v. some mythical other D Trump's chances would be slim to none? |
Currently Larry Hogan is the odds on favorite. He is a very pro-life candidate who is more likely to pull from Trump than Biden. |
Someone like Hogan could beat both Trump and Biden if they enter the race early enough to build momentum in time to collect typically loyal R and D voters by November. Trump and Biden would still receive their fair share of votes but at least a third of voters would jump at the chance to vote for a normal candidate. There are moderate R and D politicians out there that have name recognition, relative experience, aren't pushing the limits father time's impacts on human mind and body, and aren't divisively unhinged like Trump. If such a viable candidate did enter the race, gathered some momentum over the summer, and was able to get Trump and Biden on stage in an unscripted debate, it would be quite the spectacle and a huge opportunity for Americans to see the difference between presidential and not presidential. |
Latest Rasmussen poll has Biden’s approval at 45%. YouGov has 43%. HarrisX has 42%. The trolls keep posting an old outlier poll. |
There is zero chance a third party candidate can win in 2024 no matter how much people like you want to wish it, but if there were to be one, it wouldn't be a pro-life candidate like Hogan. |
Thank you. Finally a voice of sanity amidst all the chicken littles lol |
Is 45% supposed to be good? Basically means 55% don’t approve of Biden. |
Probably because people got to try their crazies in 2016, to see what happens (if they do the Russipublican encouraged thing and vote third party or take a chance on a freak like Trump) and people… people do not like losing their bodily autonomy. We didn’t like Trump letting covid run riot. We didn’t care for Trump aligning with white supremacists. We do not care for his corruption and his children’s nepotistic benefits. We do not like treason. We do not like insurrections. |