China will not invade Taiwan in 2024

[Anonymous]

China’s Communist Party, headed by Xi Jinping for the foreseeable future, will not invade Taiwan in 2024, nor is an invasion likely in 2025.

Here is why:

The analysis goes well beyond the small, but significant leaked revelations recently.

The CCP is secretive. Obsessively secretive. For these recent leaks to emerge suggests a far, far greater level of endemic corruption in China.

It will take several years; perhaps a decade, to fix.

[Anonymous]

Will never invade, on the way to internal collapse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:China’s Communist Party, headed by Xi Jinping for the foreseeable future, will not invade Taiwan in 2024, nor is an invasion likely in 2025.

Here is why:

The analysis goes well beyond the small, but significant leaked revelations recently.

The CCP is secretive. Obsessively secretive. For these recent leaks to emerge suggests a far, far greater level of endemic corruption in China.

It will take several years; perhaps a decade, to fix.

China will never invade Taiwan.

The last island invasions occurred in WWII - Iwo Jima, Okinawa, Tarawa. Tiny little islands. The carnage was horrific and that was with WWII weapons.

Taiwan is a large, heavily fortified mountainous island armed with the latest military technology. Active duty is roughly 200,000 with more than 2 million in reserves. They are armed to the teeth with anti-ship weapons and roughly 400 fighter planes and the latest armor. There is almost no chance a Chinese ship even makes it across the Straights. Even if they do, there are about three beaches where they can land. Taiwan has only had 80 years to build heavily fortified defenses. The rest of the terrain is steep and rugged and again favors the defenders. None of China's weapons systems have ever been tested in real world combat. It would be carnage for the PLA. And recall, that generation of soldiers are all only children. It would be political suicide for the CCP to lose an entire generation of only sons.

The best China can do is a naval blockade. But the Chinese navy is nothing. The US and its allies can obliterate it at will.

China will never militarily threaten Taiwan. It's just noise.

[Anonymous]

Ever seen a Chinese aircraft carrier. Catapult launch systems are beyond them. The need ramps to launch. Like Russia they are a joke military.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:China’s Communist Party, headed by Xi Jinping for the foreseeable future, will not invade Taiwan in 2024, nor is an invasion likely in 2025.

Here is why:

The analysis goes well beyond the small, but significant leaked revelations recently.

The CCP is secretive. Obsessively secretive. For these recent leaks to emerge suggests a far, far greater level of endemic corruption in China.

It will take several years; perhaps a decade, to fix.

China will never invade Taiwan.

The last island invasions occurred in WWII - Iwo Jima, Okinawa, Tarawa. Tiny little islands. The carnage was horrific and that was with WWII weapons.

Taiwan is a large, heavily fortified mountainous island armed with the latest military technology. Active duty is roughly 200,000 with more than 2 million in reserves. They are armed to the teeth with anti-ship weapons and roughly 400 fighter planes and the latest armor. There is almost no chance a Chinese ship even makes it across the Straights. Even if they do, there are about three beaches where they can land. Taiwan has only had 80 years to build heavily fortified defenses. The rest of the terrain is steep and rugged and again favors the defenders. None of China's weapons systems have ever been tested in real world combat. It would be carnage for the PLA. And recall, that generation of soldiers are all only children. It would be political suicide for the CCP to lose an entire generation of only sons.

The best China can do is a naval blockade. But the Chinese navy is nothing. The US and its allies can obliterate it at will.

China will never militarily threaten Taiwan. It's just noise.

Nukes?

[Anonymous]

I seem to remember some people on here insisting that Putin would never invade Ukraine. Yet here we are....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I seem to remember some people on here insisting that Putin would never invade Ukraine. Yet here we are....

Nah, that became a sure thing when Trump left office.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I seem to remember some people on here insisting that Putin would never invade Ukraine. Yet here we are....

Nah, that became a sure thing when Trump left office.

I believe the correct spelling is “naw,” but I digress.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I seem to remember some people on here insisting that Putin would never invade Ukraine. Yet here we are....

Good memory and valid point.

There were also many pundits who assured the media that Russian would easily overcome and subdue Ukraine in 3 days; maybe 4 days at most.

Those who predicted a 3-day war were not stupid or uninformed people; it appears most of the intelligence community agreed on that point (though of course, any consensus or lack thereof is surely classified; I am just speculating based on what was leaked to the WSJ, NYT, WaPo, etc).

But the reality as of today in Ukraine is surely also a signal to Xi that victory over Taiwan is in no way guaranteed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I seem to remember some people on here insisting that Putin would never invade Ukraine. Yet here we are....

Nah, that became a sure thing when Trump left office.

I believe the correct spelling is “naw,” but I digress.

For the citation person https://www.askdifference.com/naw-vs-nah/. Although synonymous the cool people say Nah, but I digress.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ever seen a Chinese aircraft carrier. Catapult launch systems are beyond them. The need ramps to launch. Like Russia they are a joke military.

Due to endemic corruption, kinda like the Uvalde police.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I seem to remember some people on here insisting that Putin would never invade Ukraine. Yet here we are....

There is no comparison between two countries that share a 2300 km land border, and two countries at conflict that would require a sea invasion. Ukraine was militarily weak in 2022, and still managed to inflict nearly 400,000 casualties on Russia. Goes up by nearly a 1000 a day every single day.

Taiwan is in a much stronger position. It's not comparable. Different wars. First of all, the Chinese need to get across the Straights, which is unlikely. And the Taiwanese need to defend about 1 km of land-able beaches. And then China needs to engage in a brutal meter by meter land war over difficult terrain against an enemy that is dug in and will give no quarter.

It's not comparable. It's not happening.

You can plan a vacation to Taipei in 2025 with confidence.

[Anonymous]

Actually the people on Taiwan province very love Chinese since we are all like the brothers and close as lips and teeth. So the Taiwan compatriots want to join with China but only is the US and some Western countrys that trick the Taiwan to think they not the same as China. Very pity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Actually the people on Taiwan province very love Chinese since we are all like the brothers and close as lips and teeth. So the Taiwan compatriots want to join with China but only is the US and some Western countrys that trick the Taiwan to think they not the same as China. Very pity.

This might be my favorite AI post of all time. lol

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Actually the people on Taiwan province very love Chinese since we are all like the brothers and close as lips and teeth. So the Taiwan compatriots want to join with China but only is the US and some Western countrys that trick the Taiwan to think they not the same as China. Very pity.

This might be my favorite AI post of all time. lol

All your base are belong to us.