China will not invade Taiwan in 2024

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:China can now afford to wait and see... They are likely hoping for Trump to win since he won't defend Taiwan. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-taiwan-remarks-spark-fury-concern-1862602

Biden's the one who broke with the US policy of strategic ambiguity with regard to the one China policy. Let's not pretend that Trump is the one that is deviating. Biden is the first one to deviate in decades. He's also the first one to decimate our historic relationships in the middle east. How's that going for us? You really want Biden out there freelancing?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They don't need to swiftly invade, they can use attrition to grind them down. Much easier to blockade them for months/years while pummeling the island with long range missiles and artillery outside of the range of most of Taiwan's weapons.

I don't think we will see a D-Day style invasion given how risky it would be. Attrition is working much better for Russia against Ukraine than when they went in guns blazing. China learned from this and will probably adopt a similar strategy. The big question is would the US try to use its navy to break a Chinese blockade. China will try to deter the US from intervening with area denial weapons.

But hopefully China doesn't try either strategy.

They look to be practicing.