Allegedly there are several options for the fall none of which include being back full time?

[Anonymous]

I saw today Louden County is doing the hybrid model and says parents and I believe teachers must make their choice by July 13 to plan for building capacity, bus transportation schedules , staffing. AND families will need to stick with their choice through the first semester. This timeline makes a lot more sense on a hybrid model than August 15. I would start asking the School Board/Superintendent why such a discrepancy in proposing options and getting family choice feedback —— unless the start date will be pushed back in September,too. Or is it easier then to say we tried, but could not make it work so DL for all or fir most.

A couple of related questions are:
1- How can one ensure enough staffing for in-school classes at all schools buildings?

2- Is there going to be any plan to focus on the core classes and perhaps not on music, art, pe, early Spanish, etc..?

3- Has thought been given to how teachers perhaps not teaching in a traditional way this year might be used to supplement those in school or doing DL to increase student time with a real live person. If families must be asked to stretch in educating their children, teachers may have to show flexibility, too.

4- Will a bank of subs be developed to step in when a teacher may be out? Will there be increased pay?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
I saw today Louden County is doing the hybrid model and says parents and I believe teachers must make their choice by July 13 to plan for building capacity, bus transportation schedules , staffing. AND families will need to stick with their choice through the first semester. This timeline makes a lot more sense on a hybrid model than August 15. I would start asking the School Board/Superintendent why such a discrepancy in proposing options and getting family choice feedback —— unless the start date will be pushed back in September,too. Or is it easier then to say we tried, but could not make it work so DL for all or fir most.

A couple of related questions are:
1- How can one ensure enough staffing for in-school classes at all schools buildings?

There was no way to do this pre-COVID. Why would we be able to do it now?

2- Is there going to be any plan to focus on the core classes and perhaps not on music, art, pe, early Spanish, etc..?

Possibly, but there will be pushback both internally and externally. Non-core teachers want to teach their discipline, not act as long-term subs/IAs for another course. I’ve also sat in IEP meetings with parents who produced documents that taking art or music electives was crucial to their child’s mental health.

3- Has thought been given to how teachers perhaps not teaching in a traditional way this year might be used to supplement those in school or doing DL to increase student time with a real live person. If families must be asked to stretch in educating their children, teachers may have to show flexibility, too.

What do you mean? SDTs already tend to teach 1-2 classes. They also must support instructional programs building-wide.
4- Will a bank of subs be developed to step in when a teacher may be out? Will there be increased pay?

No

[Anonymous]

I think that the Eastern County will match what PGCPS found:
“One of Maryland’s largest school systems says a survey shows that many parents, educators and staff — 46% of those who responded — want to continue at-home instruction when school starts again in the fall.

Another 42% want a hybrid of distance learning with in-school instruction, and just 12% want students back at school full-time, according to the Prince George’s County Public Schools CEO Monica Goldson.” https://wtop.com/prince-georges-county/2020/07/parents-staff-weigh-in-on-prince-georges-county-school-plans-for-fall/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The data is very encouraging. https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ The positivity rate dropped from 27% to 7.6%, number of currently hospitalized dropped from 1700 to 1000, number of death dropped from more than 50 to 9 over about a month.
And we still have almost 3 months until school starts. Planning to keep schools closed is totally unacceptable. Other areas/countries are planning to have students in class earlier than usual to make up for the lost instruction. I agree that if schools still do not open for ALL students in MoCo, it will not be swallowed easily by public.

Here's data by county:
https://phpa.health.maryland.gov/Documents/Positivity%20by%20Jurisdiction.pdf

MoCo has a 10.8% positive rate, 3rd highest in the state.

My thinking is that MoCo will make a more restrictive decision compared to many MD counties (except PG and Baltimore), because the numbers and rates are so high comparatively.

So we are currently at 5% (not less than 5% as predicted) but I think the concern for me is that number of cases is going up. Not too long ago we were at 14/14 days of declines, and we are now at 6/14—and within a week I suspect we will be at zero. Doesn’t the positivity rate have to be compared with the number of cases? Meaning, yes you want a low positivity rate to make sure there is enough testing to catch the cases. But you also want the actual number of cases to be going down, not up.

Looking at the data, I’m worried MoCo is heading in the wrong direction (though some other numbers, like frwtges and hospitalizations, do look good). I’m curious what you think (if you are still following this thread)
The MoCo data dashboard says it’s 12% (using three-day average): https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html

In less than 2 weeks, it will be less than 8%. In less than 4 weeks it will be less than 5%. By the end of July, it will be less than 3%. By the end of August, it will be less than 1%. This assumes MoCo continues to open up. Save this post.

I came up with the above prediction through my statistical programming two days ago. I'm still behind it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The data is very encouraging. https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ The positivity rate dropped from 27% to 7.6%, number of currently hospitalized dropped from 1700 to 1000, number of death dropped from more than 50 to 9 over about a month.
And we still have almost 3 months until school starts. Planning to keep schools closed is totally unacceptable. Other areas/countries are planning to have students in class earlier than usual to make up for the lost instruction. I agree that if schools still do not open for ALL students in MoCo, it will not be swallowed easily by public.

Here's data by county:
https://phpa.health.maryland.gov/Documents/Positivity%20by%20Jurisdiction.pdf

MoCo has a 10.8% positive rate, 3rd highest in the state.

My thinking is that MoCo will make a more restrictive decision compared to many MD counties (except PG and Baltimore), because the numbers and rates are so high comparatively.

The MoCo data dashboard says it’s 12% (using three-day average): https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html

In less than 2 weeks, it will be less than 8%. In less than 4 weeks it will be less than 5%. By the end of July, it will be less than 3%. By the end of August, it will be less than 1%. This assumes MoCo continues to open up. Save this post.

I came up with the above prediction through my statistical programming two days ago. I'm still behind it.

So we are currently at 5% (not less than 5% as predicted) but I think the concern for me is that number of cases is going up. Not too long ago we were at 14/14 days of declines, and we are now at 6/14—and within a week I suspect we will be at zero. Doesn’t the positivity rate have to be compared with the number of cases? Meaning, yes you want a low positivity rate to make sure there is enough testing to catch the cases. But you also want the actual number of cases to be going down, not up.

Looking at the data, I’m worried MoCo is heading in the wrong direction (though some other numbers, like frwtges and hospitalizations, do look good). I’m curious what you think (if you are still following this thread).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

So we are currently at 5% (not less than 5% as predicted) but I think the concern for me is that number of cases is going up. Not too long ago we were at 14/14 days of declines, and we are now at 6/14—and within a week I suspect we will be at zero. Doesn’t the positivity rate have to be compared with the number of cases? Meaning, yes you want a low positivity rate to make sure there is enough testing to catch the cases. But you also want the actual number of cases to be going down, not up.

Looking at the data, I’m worried MoCo is heading in the wrong direction (though some other numbers, like frwtges and hospitalizations, do look good). I’m curious what you think (if you are still following this thread).

The day-over-day percent increase of number of cases, Wednesday compared to Tuesday, was 0.4%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
So we are currently at 5% (not less than 5% as predicted) but I think the concern for me is that number of cases is going up. Not too long ago we were at 14/14 days of declines, and we are now at 6/14—and within a week I suspect we will be at zero. Doesn’t the positivity rate have to be compared with the number of cases? Meaning, yes you want a low positivity rate to make sure there is enough testing to catch the cases. But you also want the actual number of cases to be going down, not up.

Where do you see 6/14? On MoCo's data dashborad, it's 14/14 days of declines based on 3-day average (test positivity):

https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/covid19/data/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

So we are currently at 5% (not less than 5% as predicted) but I think the concern for me is that number of cases is going up. Not too long ago we were at 14/14 days of declines, and we are now at 6/14—and within a week I suspect we will be at zero. Doesn’t the positivity rate have to be compared with the number of cases? Meaning, yes you want a low positivity rate to make sure there is enough testing to catch the cases. But you also want the actual number of cases to be going down, not up.

Looking at the data, I’m worried MoCo is heading in the wrong direction (though some other numbers, like frwtges and hospitalizations, do look good). I’m curious what you think (if you are still following this thread).

The day-over-day percent increase of number of cases, Wednesday compared to Tuesday, was 0.4%.

MD-wise, percent positive is at 4.53%, down 0.08:
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

So we are currently at 5% (not less than 5% as predicted) but I think the concern for me is that number of cases is going up. Not too long ago we were at 14/14 days of declines, and we are now at 6/14—and within a week I suspect we will be at zero. Doesn’t the positivity rate have to be compared with the number of cases? Meaning, yes you want a low positivity rate to make sure there is enough testing to catch the cases. But you also want the actual number of cases to be going down, not up.

Looking at the data, I’m worried MoCo is heading in the wrong direction (though some other numbers, like frwtges and hospitalizations, do look good). I’m curious what you think (if you are still following this thread).

The day-over-day percent increase of number of cases, Wednesday compared to Tuesday, was 0.4%.

MD-wise, percent positive is at 4.53%, down 0.08:
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

In MoCo, it is 5%, according to the data dashboard

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
So we are currently at 5% (not less than 5% as predicted) but I think the concern for me is that number of cases is going up. Not too long ago we were at 14/14 days of declines, and we are now at 6/14—and within a week I suspect we will be at zero. Doesn’t the positivity rate have to be compared with the number of cases? Meaning, yes you want a low positivity rate to make sure there is enough testing to catch the cases. But you also want the actual number of cases to be going down, not up.

Where do you see 6/14? On MoCo's data dashborad, it's 14/14 days of declines based on 3-day average (test positivity):

https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/covid19/data/

I hope I am reading it wrong! The figure I was looking for was the number of new confirmed cases (the first number in the dashboard).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
So we are currently at 5% (not less than 5% as predicted) but I think the concern for me is that number of cases is going up. Not too long ago we were at 14/14 days of declines, and we are now at 6/14—and within a week I suspect we will be at zero. Doesn’t the positivity rate have to be compared with the number of cases? Meaning, yes you want a low positivity rate to make sure there is enough testing to catch the cases. But you also want the actual number of cases to be going down, not up.

Where do you see 6/14? On MoCo's data dashborad, it's 14/14 days of declines based on 3-day average (test positivity):

https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/covid19/data/

I hope I am reading it wrong! The figure I was looking for was the number of new confirmed cases (the first number in the dashboard).

The number is going up relative to the testing capacity I feel like. Also no deaths today. Pretty sure that's the first time I have seen that be at zero for moco. The test positivity is still holding steady at 5% which makes the increase in cases less of a bid deal because they are testing more people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The data is very encouraging. https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ The positivity rate dropped from 27% to 7.6%, number of currently hospitalized dropped from 1700 to 1000, number of death dropped from more than 50 to 9 over about a month.
And we still have almost 3 months until school starts. Planning to keep schools closed is totally unacceptable. Other areas/countries are planning to have students in class earlier than usual to make up for the lost instruction. I agree that if schools still do not open for ALL students in MoCo, it will not be swallowed easily by public.

Here's data by county:
https://phpa.health.maryland.gov/Documents/Positivity%20by%20Jurisdiction.pdf

MoCo has a 10.8% positive rate, 3rd highest in the state.

My thinking is that MoCo will make a more restrictive decision compared to many MD counties (except PG and Baltimore), because the numbers and rates are so high comparatively.

The MoCo data dashboard says it’s 12% (using three-day average): https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html

In less than 2 weeks, it will be less than 8%. In less than 4 weeks it will be less than 5%. By the end of July, it will be less than 3%. By the end of August, it will be less than 1%. This assumes MoCo continues to open up. Save this post.

I came up with the above prediction through my statistical programming two days ago. I'm still behind it.

From your mouth to gods ears!

Based on all the publicly available data since the beginning of this, each one of those predictions have a probability of 98% to be true. If you call that wishful thinking so be it. I'm just curious analyzing all this.

Based on my software and available data, I made the above predictions 8 days ago on June 7th, when MoCo's three day moving average for positivity rate was 12%. Some people mocked me. Today MoCo's moving average is 7%. I think we can check off the first prediction. I'm still behind the remaining predictions.

The second of my 4 predictions is now also met 3 weeks and 3 days after. When I made these predictions on June 7th, MoCo's three day moving average was 12%. Today it is 5%. I'm still behind my remaining 2 predictions.

Today, the third of my 4 predictions is also met: MoCo's three day moving average is 3%. I'm still behind my 4th and last prediction.
(I wasn't following this thread closely. I see that someone mentioned for my 3rd prediction that we were at 5% and not below 5%. MoCo rounds its average to the nearest integer. But if you hover on the bars of their graphs, you would notice that today's daily rate 2.9%. In any rate, less than 3% or about 3% should not be a reason of concern I hope. This is all statistics, there is always room for small adjustments.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The data is very encouraging. https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ The positivity rate dropped from 27% to 7.6%, number of currently hospitalized dropped from 1700 to 1000, number of death dropped from more than 50 to 9 over about a month.
And we still have almost 3 months until school starts. Planning to keep schools closed is totally unacceptable. Other areas/countries are planning to have students in class earlier than usual to make up for the lost instruction. I agree that if schools still do not open for ALL students in MoCo, it will not be swallowed easily by public.

Here's data by county:
https://phpa.health.maryland.gov/Documents/Positivity%20by%20Jurisdiction.pdf

MoCo has a 10.8% positive rate, 3rd highest in the state.

My thinking is that MoCo will make a more restrictive decision compared to many MD counties (except PG and Baltimore), because the numbers and rates are so high comparatively.

The MoCo data dashboard says it’s 12% (using three-day average): https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html

In less than 2 weeks, it will be less than 8%. In less than 4 weeks it will be less than 5%. By the end of July, it will be less than 3%. By the end of August, it will be less than 1%. This assumes MoCo continues to open up. Save this post.

I came up with the above prediction through my statistical programming two days ago. I'm still behind it.

From your mouth to gods ears!

Based on all the publicly available data since the beginning of this, each one of those predictions have a probability of 98% to be true. If you call that wishful thinking so be it. I'm just curious analyzing all this.

Based on my software and available data, I made the above predictions 8 days ago on June 7th, when MoCo's three day moving average for positivity rate was 12%. Some people mocked me. Today MoCo's moving average is 7%. I think we can check off the first prediction. I'm still behind the remaining predictions.

The second of my 4 predictions is now also met 3 weeks and 3 days after. When I made these predictions on June 7th, MoCo's three day moving average was 12%. Today it is 5%. I'm still behind my remaining 2 predictions.

Today, the third of my 4 predictions is also met: MoCo's three day moving average is 3%. I'm still behind my 4th and last prediction.
(I wasn't following this thread closely. I see that someone mentioned for my 3rd prediction that we were at 5% and not below 5%. MoCo rounds its average to the nearest integer. But if you hover on the bars of their graphs, you would notice that today's daily rate 2.9%. In any rate, less than 3% or about 3% should not be a reason of concern I hope. This is all statistics, there is always room for small adjustments.)

I agree that numbers look good. But it does not sound like schools will be opening until stage 3 in MoCo. When do you think that will be?