Reply to Allegedly there are several options for the fall none of which include being back full time?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The data is very encouraging. https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ The positivity rate dropped from 27% to 7.6%, number of currently hospitalized dropped from 1700 to 1000, number of death dropped from more than 50 to 9 over about a month.
And we still have almost 3 months until school starts. Planning to keep schools closed is totally unacceptable. Other areas/countries are planning to have students in class earlier than usual to make up for the lost instruction. I agree that if schools still do not open for ALL students in MoCo, it will not be swallowed easily by public.  [/quote]

Here's data by county:
https://phpa.health.maryland.gov/Documents/Positivity%20by%20Jurisdiction.pdf

MoCo has a 10.8% positive rate, 3rd highest in the state.

My thinking is that MoCo will make a more restrictive decision compared to many MD counties (except PG and Baltimore), because the numbers and rates are so high comparatively.[/quote]

So we are currently at 5% (not less than 5% as predicted) but I think the concern for me is that number of cases is going up. Not too long ago we were at 14/14 days of declines, and we are now at 6/14—and within a week I suspect we will be at zero. Doesn’t the positivity rate have to be compared with the number of cases? Meaning, yes you want a low positivity rate to make sure there is enough testing to catch the cases. But you also want the actual number of cases to be going down, not up.

Looking at the data, I’m worried MoCo is heading in the wrong direction (though some other numbers, like frwtges and hospitalizations, do look good). I’m curious what you think (if you are still following this thread)
The MoCo data dashboard says it’s 12% (using three-day average): https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html[/quote]
In less than 2 weeks, it will be less than 8%. In less than 4 weeks it will be less than 5%. By the end of July, it will be less than 3%. By the end of August, it will be less than 1%. This assumes MoCo continues to open up. Save this post. [/quote]
I came up with the above prediction through my statistical programming two days ago. I'm still behind it.[/quote][/quote]

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