Who do you think is going to win and why?

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think once again polling is way off, especially with regard to women.

Women are gonna bring this victory home for Harris.


Lol. Women voted for the sexual predator against Hillary. There is no reason to think they won't do it again.
The women that think abortion is a huge issue are already voting Democrat. The other women just do not care about that topic



Trump has driven away many votes since 2016 and 2020. And there is a new crop of young voters out there. I know My young Harris supporters are ready and excited to vote for her in their first presidential election.


He hasn't driven away a single vote. You literally just made that up

So why did he lose in 2020?


How stupid are you? Did he get more votes in 2016 or 2020?
He lost because he wasn't running against a woman.

You should be more careful calling others stupid. Orange felon was a loser then and will be a loser again.


Women have spoken loud and clear. You just aren't listening. They do not want a woman president. See 2016 for all the evidence you need


Yep. And for all of those not listening the first time, you are about to be told again! Women will demand to be heard this time. NO WOMEN PRESIDENTS!


Both men and women have to acclimate to the idea of a woman in the White House. I don't know if Harris will win or not but people are way more comfortable with the idea than they were 8 years ago. You saw this with Obama too. People are uncomfortable with a "first" for president right up until the minute they aren't. There was a time when people didn't think we'd ever elect an Irish Catholic for president. There were people who though the idea of a film actor becoming president was absurd. Then a reality star. All these things happened and now they are viewed as things that can happen and no one even discusses if the country is "ready" for them.

We wil have a female president. I don't know that it's going to be this year (I hope so) but I do know it will happen. It gets more likely every day.


Kamala Harris is also notably not Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton was a divisive figure for almost 30 years in America politics. There are people who really, really hate her and who have felt that way for decades. Those people would have crawled through broken glass to vote against her.

Since then we've had several women competitively run for President, and we've had a female VP - a first. We are in a different place with having a woman as President than we were in 2016.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think once again polling is way off, especially with regard to women.

Women are gonna bring this victory home for Harris.


Lol. Women voted for the sexual predator against Hillary. There is no reason to think they won't do it again.
The women that think abortion is a huge issue are already voting Democrat. The other women just do not care about that topic



Trump has driven away many votes since 2016 and 2020. And there is a new crop of young voters out there. I know My young Harris supporters are ready and excited to vote for her in their first presidential election.


He hasn't driven away a single vote. You literally just made that up

So why did he lose in 2020?


And and Dobbs had not happened in 2020. The insurrection had not happened in 2020. This guy just does not know how to attract voters. He seems hell-bent on driving them away.


Actually he does. He has always appealed to his base, which is primarily white, conservative, Christian men. In 2020, he scored a lower percentage of this base than he had in 2016. And he is polling lower, percentage-wise, in that demographic than he did in 2020. So he's had a slow trickle of his base away from him since 2016. And so, his messaging the last few months has been to his base. He is trying to reconnect and reestablish the support of the white conservative men.

In 2020, he increased his absolute numbers of the base by GOTV and getting 7M more Republicans registered and voting for him. He's not likely to get that response from new voters this cycle, so he is focusing on getting more of his base demographic to "return to the fold". So, his rallies have been focused on bringing white male voters that have been defecting back. Hence the increase in racist and sexist catcalls and the ramp up of repudiation for LGBTQ+. In fact, this is one of smart moves. He can't get out the vote, so he has to turn the votes to his cause and the white male votes that have drifted away from his camp seems to be the best target to attract for the least amount of effort.



This is a good analysis.


Except that he won't be able to accomplish anything of value for white males or anybody else and a lot of them aren't dumb enough to think that he will.


Young white males should be scared sh#tless of being on the hook for monthly $1200 child support payments for 18 years when Trump actually invokes the Comstock Act and bans abortion nationwide.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think once again polling is way off, especially with regard to women.

Women are gonna bring this victory home for Harris.


Lol. Women voted for the sexual predator against Hillary. There is no reason to think they won't do it again.
The women that think abortion is a huge issue are already voting Democrat. The other women just do not care about that topic



Trump has driven away many votes since 2016 and 2020. And there is a new crop of young voters out there. I know My young Harris supporters are ready and excited to vote for her in their first presidential election.


He hasn't driven away a single vote. You literally just made that up

So why did he lose in 2020?


And and Dobbs had not happened in 2020. The insurrection had not happened in 2020. This guy just does not know how to attract voters. He seems hell-bent on driving them away.


Actually he does. He has always appealed to his base, which is primarily white, conservative, Christian men. In 2020, he scored a lower percentage of this base than he had in 2016. And he is polling lower, percentage-wise, in that demographic than he did in 2020. So he's had a slow trickle of his base away from him since 2016. And so, his messaging the last few months has been to his base. He is trying to reconnect and reestablish the support of the white conservative men.

In 2020, he increased his absolute numbers of the base by GOTV and getting 7M more Republicans registered and voting for him. He's not likely to get that response from new voters this cycle, so he is focusing on getting more of his base demographic to "return to the fold". So, his rallies have been focused on bringing white male voters that have been defecting back. Hence the increase in racist and sexist catcalls and the ramp up of repudiation for LGBTQ+. In fact, this is one of smart moves. He can't get out the vote, so he has to turn the votes to his cause and the white male votes that have drifted away from his camp seems to be the best target to attract for the least amount of effort.



This is a good analysis.


Except that he won't be able to accomplish anything of value for white males or anybody else and a lot of them aren't dumb enough to think that he will.


Young white males should be scared sh#tless of being on the hook for monthly $1200 child support payments for 18 years when Trump actually invokes the Comstock Act and bans abortion nationwide.


Do you really think they'd go through with that? The whole point seems to be the birth of the child, not their life.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think once again polling is way off, especially with regard to women.

Women are gonna bring this victory home for Harris.


Lol. Women voted for the sexual predator against Hillary. There is no reason to think they won't do it again.
The women that think abortion is a huge issue are already voting Democrat. The other women just do not care about that topic



Trump has driven away many votes since 2016 and 2020. And there is a new crop of young voters out there. I know My young Harris supporters are ready and excited to vote for her in their first presidential election.


He hasn't driven away a single vote. You literally just made that up

So why did he lose in 2020?


And and Dobbs had not happened in 2020. The insurrection had not happened in 2020. This guy just does not know how to attract voters. He seems hell-bent on driving them away.


Actually he does. He has always appealed to his base, which is primarily white, conservative, Christian men. In 2020, he scored a lower percentage of this base than he had in 2016. And he is polling lower, percentage-wise, in that demographic than he did in 2020. So he's had a slow trickle of his base away from him since 2016. And so, his messaging the last few months has been to his base. He is trying to reconnect and reestablish the support of the white conservative men.

In 2020, he increased his absolute numbers of the base by GOTV and getting 7M more Republicans registered and voting for him. He's not likely to get that response from new voters this cycle, so he is focusing on getting more of his base demographic to "return to the fold". So, his rallies have been focused on bringing white male voters that have been defecting back. Hence the increase in racist and sexist catcalls and the ramp up of repudiation for LGBTQ+. In fact, this is one of smart moves. He can't get out the vote, so he has to turn the votes to his cause and the white male votes that have drifted away from his camp seems to be the best target to attract for the least amount of effort.



This is a good analysis.


Except that he won't be able to accomplish anything of value for white males or anybody else and a lot of them aren't dumb enough to think that he will.


Young white males should be scared sh#tless of being on the hook for monthly $1200 child support payments for 18 years when Trump actually invokes the Comstock Act and bans abortion nationwide.


And this is why everyone hates male feminists..we all know their real motive is to get NSA sex and abortions on demand. Sick
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think once again polling is way off, especially with regard to women.

Women are gonna bring this victory home for Harris.


Lol. Women voted for the sexual predator against Hillary. There is no reason to think they won't do it again.
The women that think abortion is a huge issue are already voting Democrat. The other women just do not care about that topic



Trump has driven away many votes since 2016 and 2020. And there is a new crop of young voters out there. I know My young Harris supporters are ready and excited to vote for her in their first presidential election.


He hasn't driven away a single vote. You literally just made that up

So why did he lose in 2020?


And and Dobbs had not happened in 2020. The insurrection had not happened in 2020. This guy just does not know how to attract voters. He seems hell-bent on driving them away.


Actually he does. He has always appealed to his base, which is primarily white, conservative, Christian men. In 2020, he scored a lower percentage of this base than he had in 2016. And he is polling lower, percentage-wise, in that demographic than he did in 2020. So he's had a slow trickle of his base away from him since 2016. And so, his messaging the last few months has been to his base. He is trying to reconnect and reestablish the support of the white conservative men.

In 2020, he increased his absolute numbers of the base by GOTV and getting 7M more Republicans registered and voting for him. He's not likely to get that response from new voters this cycle, so he is focusing on getting more of his base demographic to "return to the fold". So, his rallies have been focused on bringing white male voters that have been defecting back. Hence the increase in racist and sexist catcalls and the ramp up of repudiation for LGBTQ+. In fact, this is one of smart moves. He can't get out the vote, so he has to turn the votes to his cause and the white male votes that have drifted away from his camp seems to be the best target to attract for the least amount of effort.



This is a good analysis.


Except that he won't be able to accomplish anything of value for white males or anybody else and a lot of them aren't dumb enough to think that he will.


Young white males should be scared sh#tless of being on the hook for monthly $1200 child support payments for 18 years when Trump actually invokes the Comstock Act and bans abortion nationwide.


And this is why everyone hates male feminists..we all know their real motive is to get NSA sex and abortions on demand. Sick


*yaaaaaaawn*

Anything else?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think once again polling is way off, especially with regard to women.

Women are gonna bring this victory home for Harris.


Lol. Women voted for the sexual predator against Hillary. There is no reason to think they won't do it again.
The women that think abortion is a huge issue are already voting Democrat. The other women just do not care about that topic



Trump has driven away many votes since 2016 and 2020. And there is a new crop of young voters out there. I know My young Harris supporters are ready and excited to vote for her in their first presidential election.


He hasn't driven away a single vote. You literally just made that up

So why did he lose in 2020?


And and Dobbs had not happened in 2020. The insurrection had not happened in 2020. This guy just does not know how to attract voters. He seems hell-bent on driving them away.


Actually he does. He has always appealed to his base, which is primarily white, conservative, Christian men. In 2020, he scored a lower percentage of this base than he had in 2016. And he is polling lower, percentage-wise, in that demographic than he did in 2020. So he's had a slow trickle of his base away from him since 2016. And so, his messaging the last few months has been to his base. He is trying to reconnect and reestablish the support of the white conservative men.

In 2020, he increased his absolute numbers of the base by GOTV and getting 7M more Republicans registered and voting for him. He's not likely to get that response from new voters this cycle, so he is focusing on getting more of his base demographic to "return to the fold". So, his rallies have been focused on bringing white male voters that have been defecting back. Hence the increase in racist and sexist catcalls and the ramp up of repudiation for LGBTQ+. In fact, this is one of smart moves. He can't get out the vote, so he has to turn the votes to his cause and the white male votes that have drifted away from his camp seems to be the best target to attract for the least amount of effort.



This is a good analysis.


Except that he won't be able to accomplish anything of value for white males or anybody else and a lot of them aren't dumb enough to think that he will.


Young white males should be scared sh#tless of being on the hook for monthly $1200 child support payments for 18 years when Trump actually invokes the Comstock Act and bans abortion nationwide.


Do you really think they'd go through with that? The whole point seems to be the birth of the child, not their life.


States enforce child support laws. They will garnish wages directly from employers.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think once again polling is way off, especially with regard to women.

Women are gonna bring this victory home for Harris.


Lol. Women voted for the sexual predator against Hillary. There is no reason to think they won't do it again.
The women that think abortion is a huge issue are already voting Democrat. The other women just do not care about that topic



Trump has driven away many votes since 2016 and 2020. And there is a new crop of young voters out there. I know My young Harris supporters are ready and excited to vote for her in their first presidential election.


He hasn't driven away a single vote. You literally just made that up

So why did he lose in 2020?


And and Dobbs had not happened in 2020. The insurrection had not happened in 2020. This guy just does not know how to attract voters. He seems hell-bent on driving them away.


Actually he does. He has always appealed to his base, which is primarily white, conservative, Christian men. In 2020, he scored a lower percentage of this base than he had in 2016. And he is polling lower, percentage-wise, in that demographic than he did in 2020. So he's had a slow trickle of his base away from him since 2016. And so, his messaging the last few months has been to his base. He is trying to reconnect and reestablish the support of the white conservative men.

In 2020, he increased his absolute numbers of the base by GOTV and getting 7M more Republicans registered and voting for him. He's not likely to get that response from new voters this cycle, so he is focusing on getting more of his base demographic to "return to the fold". So, his rallies have been focused on bringing white male voters that have been defecting back. Hence the increase in racist and sexist catcalls and the ramp up of repudiation for LGBTQ+. In fact, this is one of smart moves. He can't get out the vote, so he has to turn the votes to his cause and the white male votes that have drifted away from his camp seems to be the best target to attract for the least amount of effort.



This is a good analysis.


Except that he won't be able to accomplish anything of value for white males or anybody else and a lot of them aren't dumb enough to think that he will.


Young white males should be scared sh#tless of being on the hook for monthly $1200 child support payments for 18 years when Trump actually invokes the Comstock Act and bans abortion nationwide.


Do you really think they'd go through with that? The whole point seems to be the birth of the child, not their life.


States enforce child support laws. They will garnish wages directly from employers.


Which is another reason men kill women. Who wants to be on the hook for child support for 18 years? Fun fact: your chances of being murdered are never higher, than when you are pregnant! And guess who be doing the killing?
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think once again polling is way off, especially with regard to women.

Women are gonna bring this victory home for Harris.


Lol. Women voted for the sexual predator against Hillary. There is no reason to think they won't do it again.
The women that think abortion is a huge issue are already voting Democrat. The other women just do not care about that topic



Trump has driven away many votes since 2016 and 2020. And there is a new crop of young voters out there. I know My young Harris supporters are ready and excited to vote for her in their first presidential election.


He hasn't driven away a single vote. You literally just made that up

So why did he lose in 2020?


How stupid are you? Did he get more votes in 2016 or 2020?
He lost because he wasn't running against a woman.

You should be more careful calling others stupid. Orange felon was a loser then and will be a loser again.


Women have spoken loud and clear. You just aren't listening. They do not want a woman president. See 2016 for all the evidence you need


Yep. And for all of those not listening the first time, you are about to be told again! Women will demand to be heard this time. NO WOMEN PRESIDENTS!


Both men and women have to acclimate to the idea of a woman in the White House. I don't know if Harris will win or not but people are way more comfortable with the idea than they were 8 years ago. You saw this with Obama too. People are uncomfortable with a "first" for president right up until the minute they aren't. There was a time when people didn't think we'd ever elect an Irish Catholic for president. There were people who though the idea of a film actor becoming president was absurd. Then a reality star. All these things happened and now they are viewed as things that can happen and no one even discusses if the country is "ready" for them.

We wil have a female president. I don't know that it's going to be this year (I hope so) but I do know it will happen. It gets more likely every day.


Kamala Harris is also notably not Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton was a divisive figure for almost 30 years in America politics. There are people who really, really hate her and who have felt that way for decades. Those people would have crawled through broken glass to vote against her.

Since then we've had several women competitively run for President, and we've had a female VP - a first. We are in a different place with having a woman as President than we were in 2016.


Agree with this and will also note that Harris has also treated her gender and the historic nature of her candidacy and possible win very differently than Clinton did. Harris is running as though her gender is a non-issue. Also while she talks about women's issues regularly she does not talk about her own experience as a woman almost at all. Perhaps counterintuitively I think this works in her favor because it makes her campaign feel less like it's about her and the history she would make and more like it's about voters and issues.

I think sometimes when women talk about their experience of being women men can kind of shut off mentally. Like "oh this isn't relevant to me -- I'll tune out." Men are not taught to view the world through a woman's perspective whereas women DO learn to see the world through a male perspective because it's the dominant one. It's the same reason why men are more reluctant to read novels or see movies that are about women's experiences while women consume stories about men's experiences all the time. It's just a byproduct of misogyny.

But by not really discussing her own experience much and instead just talking about issues or Trump or what she plans to do as president I think she sidesteps this issue. I don't even think it's tactical -- I think she just doesn't really love talking about herself that much. Which is part of why she's not as good of a retail politician as someone like Obama or Buttigieg who weaves their own story into their pitch to voters so that voters feel like they "know" them. And that's a drawback for Harris but I also think as a female candidate it has a hidden benefit. Since male voters are less likely to relate to her story anyway she can avoid putting them off. And due to Trump and the abortion issue women are giving her the benefit of the doubt anyway.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:


I'm not on Twitter anymore but thanks for reminding me of the way a tweet can make you feel dumber just for having read it. I had forgotten what that's like.
Anonymous
My brother in law runs a large factory in a swing state inner city. He said his black and Hispanic male employees openly mock Kamala and said they're voting for Trump. They like Trump's unapologetic machismo. And Black men apparently believe Kamala is Indian and pretending to be black.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think once again polling is way off, especially with regard to women.

Women are gonna bring this victory home for Harris.


Lol. Women voted for the sexual predator against Hillary. There is no reason to think they won't do it again.
The women that think abortion is a huge issue are already voting Democrat. The other women just do not care about that topic



Trump has driven away many votes since 2016 and 2020. And there is a new crop of young voters out there. I know My young Harris supporters are ready and excited to vote for her in their first presidential election.


He hasn't driven away a single vote. You literally just made that up

So why did he lose in 2020?


How stupid are you? Did he get more votes in 2016 or 2020?
He lost because he wasn't running against a woman.

You should be more careful calling others stupid. Orange felon was a loser then and will be a loser again.


Women have spoken loud and clear. You just aren't listening. They do not want a woman president. See 2016 for all the evidence you need


Yep. And for all of those not listening the first time, you are about to be told again! Women will demand to be heard this time. NO WOMEN PRESIDENTS!


Both men and women have to acclimate to the idea of a woman in the White House. I don't know if Harris will win or not but people are way more comfortable with the idea than they were 8 years ago. You saw this with Obama too. People are uncomfortable with a "first" for president right up until the minute they aren't. There was a time when people didn't think we'd ever elect an Irish Catholic for president. There were people who though the idea of a film actor becoming president was absurd. Then a reality star. All these things happened and now they are viewed as things that can happen and no one even discusses if the country is "ready" for them.

We wil have a female president. I don't know that it's going to be this year (I hope so) but I do know it will happen. It gets more likely every day.


Kamala Harris is also notably not Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton was a divisive figure for almost 30 years in America politics. There are people who really, really hate her and who have felt that way for decades. Those people would have crawled through broken glass to vote against her.

Since then we've had several women competitively run for President, and we've had a female VP - a first. We are in a different place with having a woman as President than we were in 2016.


No one likes Hillary and guess what? They like Kamala a lot less than Hillary. That's going to be a real problem for her. She's losing the male vote (she just got caught on a hot microphone saying this) and shes losing the black vote. It doesn't look good for her.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think once again polling is way off, especially with regard to women.

Women are gonna bring this victory home for Harris.


Lol. Women voted for the sexual predator against Hillary. There is no reason to think they won't do it again.
The women that think abortion is a huge issue are already voting Democrat. The other women just do not care about that topic



Trump has driven away many votes since 2016 and 2020. And there is a new crop of young voters out there. I know My young Harris supporters are ready and excited to vote for her in their first presidential election.


He hasn't driven away a single vote. You literally just made that up

So why did he lose in 2020?


How stupid are you? Did he get more votes in 2016 or 2020?
He lost because he wasn't running against a woman.

You should be more careful calling others stupid. Orange felon was a loser then and will be a loser again.


Women have spoken loud and clear. You just aren't listening. They do not want a woman president. See 2016 for all the evidence you need


Yep. And for all of those not listening the first time, you are about to be told again! Women will demand to be heard this time. NO WOMEN PRESIDENTS!


Both men and women have to acclimate to the idea of a woman in the White House. I don't know if Harris will win or not but people are way more comfortable with the idea than they were 8 years ago. You saw this with Obama too. People are uncomfortable with a "first" for president right up until the minute they aren't. There was a time when people didn't think we'd ever elect an Irish Catholic for president. There were people who though the idea of a film actor becoming president was absurd. Then a reality star. All these things happened and now they are viewed as things that can happen and no one even discusses if the country is "ready" for them.

We wil have a female president. I don't know that it's going to be this year (I hope so) but I do know it will happen. It gets more likely every day.


Kamala Harris is also notably not Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton was a divisive figure for almost 30 years in America politics. There are people who really, really hate her and who have felt that way for decades. Those people would have crawled through broken glass to vote against her.

Since then we've had several women competitively run for President, and we've had a female VP - a first. We are in a different place with having a woman as President than we were in 2016.


No one likes Hillary and guess what? They like Kamala a lot less than Hillary. That's going to be a real problem for her. She's losing the male vote (she just got caught on a hot microphone saying this) and shes losing the black vote. It doesn't look good for her.

The issue for Harris going back to her disastrous primary run in 2019 is that people seem to like the idea of her more than they actually like her. And it’s possible to tell because her polling in both contests declined over time as more people got exposed to her. And this cannot be labeled as a race and sexism issue, because it was Democratic primary voters then who responded to her the same way that national voters are responding to her now.

If she had to run against Trump for an entire year like a normal candidate I am sure that it would be a Mondale scale blow out.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:My brother in law runs a large factory in a swing state inner city. He said his black and Hispanic male employees openly mock Kamala and said they're voting for Trump. They like Trump's unapologetic machismo. And Black men apparently believe Kamala is Indian and pretending to be black.


Trump’s been shot, sued, convicted, impeached, called every bad word in the book, you name it. Still standing there larger than life. Surely you can understand his appeal.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.


So would Trump or Harris be better for the economy, concretely?


You're replying to me. My crystal ball is hazy. All I know is that the mounting consumer debt is very worrisome. I don't think we're out of the woods for a recession, and as a federal employee with a secure job it's a selfish thing to say, but a downturn would at least break the inflation even more. But that's selfish because I know it's happening due to lots of people without guaranteed jobs falling on very hard times and having to spend far less. It's going to be a bitter pill to swallow. Anecdotally, I'm already seeing it when I walk around and check prices on luxury goods and hobby purchases like RVs, hot tubs, high-end barbeque grills, wristwatches, etc. That's the first thing to go. Then people working in those industries get laid off. Then it trickles down to hospitality and restaurant workers, and it just snowballs from there.

I have moved all of my TSP "S" small cap holdings to "C" on the premise that the S&P 500 firms will weather the storm better, but I'm too young to be holding any short-term stuff. Just keep buying C fund stocks through any crash, and thank heavens I don't work in private industry. They make a lot more than me in boom times, but I'm always happy to be in a more risk averse career when the busts happen. I'd rather live in a smaller house but know I'll always have a roof over my head and two reliable cars.

My best guess is Trump will be decidedly better for the economy, but he's got to be careful with the tariff talk. It's hazy what he plans to do there, but not as worrisome to me as Harris' even more ill-defined comments about cutting costs and "corporate greed". Keep government the hell away from the supply/demand equilibrium point. Trump at least has considerable, real-world experience in business. Harris sounds like she never took microeconomics 101 and doesn't understand the first thing about how a firm works. She buys into this mythology of the "evil rich" and the "greedy corporations" who don't pay their fair share. That's just pandering to the ignorant voters on the Left the same way Trump also panders to ignorance, but I find her pandering to be more scary from a financial perspective.


You're a pretty sh!tty economist. Economists generally hate tariffs and 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists warn that Trump's economic plans could reignite inflation. They've been saying ad nauseam that he'd be terrible for the economy.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-economy-nobel-prize-winners-letter-inflation-warning/


Saying economists generally hate tariffs makes zero sense... You are clearly the target audience for misleading article headlines. Read a book or two.
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