What’s going on with the two bills?

[Anonymous]

It looks like both sides are digging in. Pelosis gambit to tie them together appears not to be working.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, we know.

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/1002278.page

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/1001609.page

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It looks like both sides are digging in. Pelosis gambit to tie them together appears not to be working.

Let’s wait and see. Lots of public posturing but who knows what’s going on behind the scenes. I do enjoy knowing that the corporate, centerist wind of the Dem party has some opposition. They’ve alway been able to call the shots but no more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It looks like both sides are digging in. Pelosis gambit to tie them together appears not to be working.

Let’s wait and see. Lots of public posturing but who knows what’s going on behind the scenes. I do enjoy knowing that the corporate, centerist wind of the Dem party has some opposition. They’ve alway been able to call the shots but no more.

Wing!

[Anonymous]

It looks like neither bill will survive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It looks like both sides are digging in. Pelosis gambit to tie them together appears not to be working.

I think it's too early to tell. Tying them together was the only way to have any chance of getting either to pass. The centrists are used to being able to dictate terms in the democratic party because the centrists usually would rather have no bill than the liberal bill. That forces the liberals to concede if they want anything. But Pelosi flipped this dynamic with this two-bill strategy and handed the liberals a lot of leverage. The centrists really want the infrastructure bill. The liberals don't really care too much about it. It doesn't have their priorities in it (they were not included in any of the negotiations), and none of them are going to lose their seats in safe blue districts if they vote against it. Actually, voting for it without also getting the reconciliation bill could invite primaries for some of them. So the liberals can credibly hold it hostage in exchange for centrist votes on the reconciliation bill, and that's exactly what they're doing. It may all blow up and end up in nothing. But it could also force the centrists to the table. There are a lot of public threats going around, but there are also probably a lot of private conversations that we don't know about.

[Anonymous]

I am very curious to see how this all shakes out. Manchin is talking a good game, but in he end he needs some kind of infrastructure bull to pass. For all his grandstanding in 2018 about that being his last Senate campaign, he’s been quietly fundraising for 2024 and is going to run again. He barely eked out a win last time and his approval numbers in WV are shaky, so he needs something to solidify support at home. Not delivering something for his state on infrastructure will hurt him a lot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It looks like neither bill will survive.

Infrastructure would if they would unshackle it from that bloated Build Back Better bill.

Its already done the hard part of passing the Senate. The House is a rubber-stamp and they already have GOP support anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It looks like neither bill will survive.

Infrastructure would if they would unshackle it from that bloated Build Back Better bill.

Its already done the hard part of passing the Senate. The House is a rubber-stamp and they already have GOP support anyway.

What is bloated about it? It is $3.5T over 10 Years that is generally revenue neutral, so it is drop in the bucket compared to the unfunded 2017 tax cuts, which have ballooned our debt by $8T.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am very curious to see how this all shakes out. Manchin is talking a good game, but in he end he needs some kind of infrastructure bull to pass. For all his grandstanding in 2018 about that being his last Senate campaign, he’s been quietly fundraising for 2024 and is going to run again. He barely eked out a win last time and his approval numbers in WV are shaky, so he needs something to solidify support at home. Not delivering something for his state on infrastructure will hurt him a lot.

At some point, I think he's going to realize his only chance of getting the infrastructure bill is to give the house liberals some reasonable parameters of what he's willing to support (in terms of cost, red lines, etc.), and let them pick and choose among the priorities. His current public demand that they vote for his bill now, while he thinks about their bill until next year (an election year) makes me think he believes he has more leverage than he does. The best move for Pelosi may be to let the bill fail on Sept. 27. It will be a media disaster, but it will make it very clear to everyone on where leverage lies. And if it ends up with both bills passing, no one in November 2022 will remember the failed vote in Sept. 2021.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It looks like neither bill will survive.

Infrastructure would if they would unshackle it from that bloated Build Back Better bill.

Its already done the hard part of passing the Senate. The House is a rubber-stamp and they already have GOP support anyway.

Well no, it's not going to pass the house. If it goes to vote on Sept. 27 as planned, almost all republicans will vote against it (it will get maybe 5 GOP votes), and 50-70 democrats will vote against it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It looks like neither bill will survive.

Infrastructure would if they would unshackle it from that bloated Build Back Better bill.

Its already done the hard part of passing the Senate. The House is a rubber-stamp and they already have GOP support anyway.

Well no, it's not going to pass the house. If it goes to vote on Sept. 27 as planned, almost all republicans will vote against it (it will get maybe 5 GOP votes), and 50-70 democrats will vote against it.

Why would the Democrats vote against it? It's their freaking bill.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It looks like neither bill will survive.

Infrastructure would if they would unshackle it from that bloated Build Back Better bill.

Its already done the hard part of passing the Senate. The House is a rubber-stamp and they already have GOP support anyway.

What is bloated about it? It is $3.5T over 10 Years that is generally revenue neutral, so it is drop in the bucket compared to the unfunded 2017 tax cuts, which have ballooned our debt by $8T.

Too much shackled to actual Infrastructure that no one wants. Including $1.8 Trillion that they haven't even explained what they want to do with. They've had 8 months, stop hanging us up.

You cut these three things, its $2.6 trillion in expenditures gone, and a lean $900 billion 'Build Back Better' proposal which still tackles environmental concerns and clean energy. Which is INFRASTRUCTURE.

$1.8 trillion for the Finance Committee. This part of the bill is for investments in working families, the elderly, and the environment. It includes a tax cut for Americans making less than $400,000 a year, lowering the price of prescription drugs, and ensuring the wealthy and large corporations pay their fair share of taxes.

$726 billion for the Health, Labor, Education, and Pensions Committee. This addresses universal pre-K for 3- and 4-year-olds, childcare for working families, tuition-free community college, funding for historically black colleges and universities, and an expansion of the Pell Grant for higher education.

$107 billion for the Judiciary Committee. These funds address establishing "lawful permanent status for qualified immigrants."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It looks like neither bill will survive.

Infrastructure would if they would unshackle it from that bloated Build Back Better bill.

Its already done the hard part of passing the Senate. The House is a rubber-stamp and they already have GOP support anyway.

Well no, it's not going to pass the house. If it goes to vote on Sept. 27 as planned, almost all republicans will vote against it (it will get maybe 5 GOP votes), and 50-70 democrats will vote against it.

Any democrat on record voting against a badly needed infrastructure bill should be primaried. They literally have one job - and here they are mucking it up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It looks like neither bill will survive.

Infrastructure would if they would unshackle it from that bloated Build Back Better bill.

Its already done the hard part of passing the Senate. The House is a rubber-stamp and they already have GOP support anyway.

Well no, it's not going to pass the house. If it goes to vote on Sept. 27 as planned, almost all republicans will vote against it (it will get maybe 5 GOP votes), and 50-70 democrats will vote against it.

Why would the Democrats vote against it? It's their freaking bill.

Not, it's not their bill. It's a bill produced by Manchin, Sinema, Collins, Portman, etc.. Not a single house liberal had a seat at the table when it was being negotiated.