Will DC housing prices rise if/when Fed cuts rates in September?

[Anonymous]

I can imagine what can be (affordable housing), unburdened by what has been (high rates, high prices)

[Anonymous]

You probably shouldn't wait to buy since interest rates will most likely be dropping.

[Anonymous]

Yes. Housing prices will go up when rates are cut. This has been historically true.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes. Housing prices will go up when rates are cut. This has been historically true.

Source? It's likely true that prices go up when mortgages rates decrease (more purchasing power for buyers). But it's a big leap from fed interest rate cuts (of short term rates) to lower mortgage rates. "Historically", the yield curve typically slopes upwards (long-term rates are higher than short term rates). So if the short-term rate is cut by the fed 3-4 times, to 4.25%, "historically" longer term rates (the 10 year) would be marginally higher. The 10 year is currently at 4.25%. What is your argument for how short-term rate cuts lead to lower long term rates? If you don't have one, then don't argue that mortgage rates, which are keyed off of the 10 year, are going down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes. Housing prices will go up when rates are cut. This has been historically true.

Source? It's likely true that prices go up when mortgages rates decrease (more purchasing power for buyers). But it's a big leap from fed interest rate cuts (of short term rates) to lower mortgage rates. "Historically", the yield curve typically slopes upwards (long-term rates are higher than short term rates). So if the short-term rate is cut by the fed 3-4 times, to 4.25%, "historically" longer term rates (the 10 year) would be marginally higher. The 10 year is currently at 4.25%. What is your argument for how short-term rate cuts lead to lower long term rates? If you don't have one, then don't argue that mortgage rates, which are keyed off of the 10 year, are going down.

There are reasons to believe that Fed rate cuts could still lead to higher home prices. While it's true that mortgage rates are more closely tied to long-term yields like the 10-year Treasury, Fed rate cuts can indirectly influence these longer-term rates through market expectations and economic conditions. Lower rates typically boost economic activity and inflation expectations. This can affect the entire yield curve, potentially bringing down longer-term rates as well. Even if mortgage rates don't decrease significantly, the overall lower interest rate environment can stimulate demand in the housing market by improving consumer confidence and increasing investment in real estate as an alternative to lower-yielding assets. Coupled with potentially easier access to credit, this could put upward pressure on home prices even if mortgage rates don't fall dramatically.

[Anonymous]

No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

[Anonymous]

The difference now as compares to 2008 -2019 is the lack of supply of houses.

Lower interest rates + shortage of housing supply + pentup demand = higher prices.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The difference now as compared to 2008 -2019 is the lack of supply of houses.

Lower interest rates + shortage of housing supply + pentup demand = higher prices.

+1 This ^^^

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

+1 Not sure where pp got the idea that DC home prices were stagnant between 2008 - 2019.

[Anonymous]

The majority of economists forecast the Fed will have 2-3 rates cuts in 2024.

[Anonymous]

The majority of economists forecast the Fed will have 2-3 rates cuts in 2024. I'd bet on home prices increasing, as well as demand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

+1 Not sure where pp got the idea that DC home prices were stagnant between 2008 - 2019.

They were stagnant, on the whole. Just because you may have had a different experience, that doesn't mean the average sales price rose.

[Anonymous]

No, I seriously doubt it.

[Anonymous]

I think a rate cut will bring out more buyers and increasing demand. Not sure if prices will go up but there will be more competition among buyers.