Will DC housing prices rise if/when Fed cuts rates in September?

[Anonymous]

No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

[Anonymous]

The difference now as compares to 2008 -2019 is the lack of supply of houses.

Lower interest rates + shortage of housing supply + pentup demand = higher prices.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The difference now as compared to 2008 -2019 is the lack of supply of houses.

Lower interest rates + shortage of housing supply + pentup demand = higher prices.

+1 This ^^^

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

+1 Not sure where pp got the idea that DC home prices were stagnant between 2008 - 2019.

[Anonymous]

The majority of economists forecast the Fed will have 2-3 rates cuts in 2024.

[Anonymous]

The majority of economists forecast the Fed will have 2-3 rates cuts in 2024. I'd bet on home prices increasing, as well as demand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

+1 Not sure where pp got the idea that DC home prices were stagnant between 2008 - 2019.

They were stagnant, on the whole. Just because you may have had a different experience, that doesn't mean the average sales price rose.

[Anonymous]

No, I seriously doubt it.

[Anonymous]

I think a rate cut will bring out more buyers and increasing demand. Not sure if prices will go up but there will be more competition among buyers.

[Anonymous]

Anytime everyone thinks that an asset class will just continue to go up indefinitely, after it has already gone up substantially, it's time to be cautious.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-four-phases-of-an-asset-bubble-of-any-kind_fig11_319163284

I think we're somewhere between "Delusion" and "New Paradigm".

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

+1 Not sure where pp got the idea that DC home prices were stagnant between 2008 - 2019.

They were stagnant, on the whole. Just because you may have had a different experience, that doesn't mean the average sales price rose.

You really enjoy being wrong, don't you?

https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/the-10-year-path-of-dc-home-prices-in-four-charts/15700

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Anytime everyone thinks that an asset class will just continue to go up indefinitely, after it has already gone up substantially, it's time to be cautious.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-four-phases-of-an-asset-bubble-of-any-kind_fig11_319163284

I think we're somewhere between "Delusion" and "New Paradigm".

Housing prices really don’t appreciate that much on average after adjusting for inflation. The value increase mainly due to population growth driving up land prices. Even in the DC metro areas most single family have only appreciated on average at a rate of 1-3% per year above inflation For the last 50 years

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

+1 Not sure where pp got the idea that DC home prices were stagnant between 2008 - 2019.

They were stagnant, on the whole. Just because you may have had a different experience, that doesn't mean the average sales price rose.

You really enjoy being wrong, don't you?

https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/the-10-year-path-of-dc-home-prices-in-four-charts/15700

I am not sure that this chart disproves what the PP was saying. But here's the Fed data for DC, and it supports what the PP was saying. Seems like prices did not reach their 2006 levels again until 2020, so if you buy at the wrong time, you'll definitely be waiting a while to break even -- perhaps close to 15 years.

https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=WDXRSA&utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=alfred

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Anytime everyone thinks that an asset class will just continue to go up indefinitely, after it has already gone up substantially, it's time to be cautious.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-four-phases-of-an-asset-bubble-of-any-kind_fig11_319163284

I think we're somewhere between "Delusion" and "New Paradigm".

You mean like tech stocks? You need to look at the underlying economic conditions, not make sweeping generalizations based on graphs like a complete moron.