Will DC housing prices rise if/when Fed cuts rates in September?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

+1 Not sure where pp got the idea that DC home prices were stagnant between 2008 - 2019.

They were stagnant, on the whole. Just because you may have had a different experience, that doesn't mean the average sales price rose.

You really enjoy being wrong, don't you?

https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/the-10-year-path-of-dc-home-prices-in-four-charts/15700

The earlier PP is correct, your charts start from 2014. if it started from 2008, you will see that prices only go back to 2007/08 levels in 2020 when the pandemic broke and cause a sharp rise.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

We bought a house in Petworth in 2009 and sold it in 2018 for more than twice what we'd paid for it, so I would not say ALL housing prices in D.C. were stagnant for the decade you're talking about.

[Anonymous]

The overall trajectory of DC housing prices since 2014 shows an overall upward track. With an upcoming rate cut in September I think there is good reason to believe the upward track will continue, especially given the low supply of housing and lots of demand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

+1 Not sure where pp got the idea that DC home prices were stagnant between 2008 - 2019.

They were stagnant, on the whole. Just because you may have had a different experience, that doesn't mean the average sales price rose.

You really enjoy being wrong, don't you?

https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/the-10-year-path-of-dc-home-prices-in-four-charts/15700

The earlier PP is correct, your charts start from 2014. if it started from 2008, you will see that prices only go back to 2007/08 levels in 2020 when the pandemic broke and cause a sharp rise.

Maybe in bumf--- exurbia, where you likely reside. In DC proper, it's been a steady rise since well before 2008.

[Anonymous]

I agree. My neighborhood in NWDC has seen prices rise constantly since we bought in 2004.

[Anonymous]

I wouldn't wait too long to buy in DC. I've lived here for decades, and even during the national 2008/2009 housing crisis, the DC prices didn't fall much at all as compared to the rest of the country. DC residential real estate is always a good investment.

[Anonymous]

Everything I've read indicates both prices and demand will go up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

We bought a house in Petworth in 2009 and sold it in 2018 for more than twice what we'd paid for it, so I would not say ALL housing prices in D.C. were stagnant for the decade you're talking about.

+1 DC experienced an enormous amount of development and gentrification 2008 to 2019. To say housing prices in DC were stagnant during this time is pretty hilarious. Maybe they were stagnant in the already expensive bubble of NW? I can't imagine someone who lived here during that time would say housing prices stagnated during that period of growth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

We bought a house in Petworth in 2009 and sold it in 2018 for more than twice what we'd paid for it, so I would not say ALL housing prices in D.C. were stagnant for the decade you're talking about.

+1 DC experienced an enormous amount of development and gentrification 2008 to 2019. To say housing prices in DC were stagnant during this time is pretty hilarious. Maybe they were stagnant in the already expensive bubble of NW? I can't imagine someone who lived here during that time would say housing prices stagnated during that period of growth.

How can your eyes not see the data? Those PPs who commented earlier that they have seen price increases since they bought in 2004 also don't understand statistics. Yes, you had price increases, but the level of house prices did not recover to 2008/09 levels until 2019/2020. Data do not lie. That is price stagnation for that period.

[Anonymous]

It's all a question of what potential sellers do. Right now we have a bunch of people in DC who would have sold in the last couple years but didn't because of rates. Either the high rates turned them off of trying to level up to a bigger house because borrowing money is so expensive or they were afraid to give up their super low rate on their current home or both.

Yes lower rates should raise prices a bit because the cost of borrowing is lower. So a buyer looking at what they can afford on a monthly basis can afford a more expensive house at a lower rate.

But prices are also driven by inventory. If we get a bunch more homes on the market because of the pent up inventory that sellers have been holding onto specifically waiting for a dip in rates that could mitigate price increases. Which doesn't mean prices won't go up but they might go up more modestly than some are expecting.

I think you'll see a variety of different impacts on the market depending on how desirable and in demand the housing is. SFHs in good school districts will likely see the most increase because they always do. You may see less increase or even stagnancy in condos or townhomes that are situated away from desirable commercial districts and public transportation because with lower rates people will have more ability to aim higher.

But there's also just some unknowns here. Inflation is greatly reduced at this point but consumer confidence is still low. We managed to fight that inflation without ever entering recession which is kind of amazing but also unprecedented. I think it's hard to predict with confidence what will happen because there are a number of unusual factors at play and we'll just have to see how it plays out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

We bought a house in Petworth in 2009 and sold it in 2018 for more than twice what we'd paid for it, so I would not say ALL housing prices in D.C. were stagnant for the decade you're talking about.

+1 DC experienced an enormous amount of development and gentrification 2008 to 2019. To say housing prices in DC were stagnant during this time is pretty hilarious. Maybe they were stagnant in the already expensive bubble of NW? I can't imagine someone who lived here during that time would say housing prices stagnated during that period of growth.

How can your eyes not see the data? Those PPs who commented earlier that they have seen price increases since they bought in 2004 also don't understand statistics. Yes, you had price increases, but the level of house prices did not recover to 2008/09 levels until 2019/2020. Data do not lie. That is price stagnation for that period.

I think the analysis depends on the area. Some parts of DC underwent major significant gentrification, some parts didn't. There are likely dramatic differences between areas in NW vs. say, H St, Navy Yard, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

+1 Not sure where pp got the idea that DC home prices were stagnant between 2008 - 2019.

They were stagnant, on the whole. Just because you may have had a different experience, that doesn't mean the average sales price rose.

IN DC or are you lumping it in with Maryland and Virginia? Show your work sir.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

+1 Not sure where pp got the idea that DC home prices were stagnant between 2008 - 2019.

They were stagnant, on the whole. Just because you may have had a different experience, that doesn't mean the average sales price rose.

IN DC or are you lumping it in with Maryland and Virginia? Show your work sir.

They can't. They just keep screeching "LOOK AT THE DATA" without actually providing any data.

[Anonymous]

21:15 & 21:27 where are you finding 6.0 and 5.25 rates?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one knows, and the "buy buy buy" in this thread is exhausting. Buy when you're ready and when you find something you like and can afford, simple as that. Housing prices were stagnant in DC for over a decade (2008 to 2019), even when interest rates were historically low, so there just isn't a clear causal relationship. If anyone could actually predict housing price appreciation, they'd be very very rich rather than on DCUM.

Housing prices were not stagnant in DC between 2008 and 2019. We bought in 2008 and sold in 2013 at a significant profit even though our Hill rowhouse had some significant issues. And I'm guessing we were far from alone.

+1 Not sure where pp got the idea that DC home prices were stagnant between 2008 - 2019.

They were stagnant, on the whole. Just because you may have had a different experience, that doesn't mean the average sales price rose.

IN DC or are you lumping it in with Maryland and Virginia? Show your work sir.

They can't. They just keep screeching "LOOK AT THE DATA" without actually providing any data.

+1 Most neighborhoods in DC steadily went up from 2008 - 2019. That poster is very confused.