Will DC housing prices rise if/when Fed cuts rates in September?

[Anonymous]

With the very radical and divisive JD Vance on the ticket, it is pretty unlikely that Trump will be elected.
There are hours and hours of Vance spouting extreme and highly unpopular opinions on women, abortion, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter who is elected, people still need homes and the supply of houses is still very low. High demand and low supply, plus interest rate cuts means higher prices.

Possibly true nationwide, but locally, there will be a dramatic housing price crash if Trump is elected.

ThErE's GoInG tO bE a HuGe CrAsH!!!!!! THE END IS NIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Unlikely Trump will win. Biden is going to step aside and make way for a Kamala / Sen. Mark Kelly ticket which will enthuse the Dems and lead to a Democratic victory.

. Did you just fall out of a coconut tree?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unlikely Trump will win. Biden is going to step aside and make way for a Kamala / Sen. Mark Kelly ticket which will enthuse the Dems and lead to a Democratic victory.

. Did you just fall out of a coconut tree?

I agree with this - Biden will drop out and Kamala will run with Kelly as her running mate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter who is elected, people still need homes and the supply of houses is still very low. High demand and low supply, plus interest rate cuts means higher prices.

Possibly true nationwide, but locally, there will be a dramatic housing price crash if Trump is elected.

ThErE's GoInG tO bE a HuGe CrAsH!!!!!! THE END IS NIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Baloney. Even with a Trump win, there is no chance the housing market will do anything but continue to improve. The multiple fed rate cuts will raise prices, and the pentup demand plus low supply means housing sales will grow.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter who is elected, people still need homes and the supply of houses is still very low. High demand and low supply, plus interest rate cuts means higher prices.

Possibly true nationwide, but locally, there will be a dramatic housing price crash if Trump is elected.

I seriously doubt that.

Okay. This isn’t controversial or particularly political. But it is factual that he has pledged that if elected he will, from day 1, start cutting and laying off anyone he views as remotely political and he will be reducing head count massively across all agencies and be attempting to actually cut several agencies entirely. He also had said he will move large portions of some agencies and entire other agencies outside DC.

From a real estate investor perspective I don’t think it’s realistic that he will be able to cut entire agencies or move them entirely - too many lawsuits and union obstacles, but starting Jan 20 there will be a very significant (think 10% reduction) in federal employees in the dc area.

Maybe this is a good idea economically for the country but it’s going to knock a leg out from the dc housing market.

If he’s elected it might be a good idea to invest elsewhere, and with his interest in real estate he wants a good market, but it’s going to be very bad for the dmv. I’m always shocked that more real estate guys aren’t paying attention to this but it’s one of the clearer policy things he’s talked about.

The thing is that while the federal government remains the biggest employer in the region most of the growth in population in this area is linked to other sectors (tech and defense) that may work for the federal government but are not federal employees. There are also a lot of agencies that now contract out huge parts of their agency to private firms. Some of these jobs could be shipped out of the area as well but most would not -- they are too high level and the companies involved are too heavily invested in DC via physical investments. Also as long as high level decision makers remain in DC there will be limited impact on the massive shadow government and lobbying activity in this area.

Also the goverment has already shipped off a lot of low level and midlevel federal jobs that used to be in DC. That didn't even start under Trump. There have been other efforts to save money by shifting certain activities to places with lower cost of living and cheaper labor and real estate.

Unless Trump can successfully relocate Congress and the White House as well as the DOD the impact will be fairly minimal. The overall trend is not only for more growth in this region in the private sector but especially more higher paying jobs in these sectors. That is what has really driven up housing costs in DC in the last 20 years. It's not all the midlevel feds it's people in consulting and defense contracting and tech making large salaries. That's why a row house on Capitol Hill that cost 150k not that long ago now goes for a million. That's why upper NW and close in Bethesda are now pretty much unaffordable without 200-300k in income. That's why huge swaths of NoVa that used to be fairly affordable (lots of SFHs for less than 500k on big lots) are basically just million dollar tear downs or huge rebuilds going for 1.5m and up.

Republican administrations tend to contribute to this trend because of the push for privatization by the way. A lot of the current consulting and contracting infrastructure was built up during W's administration. A lot of it was linked to the huge contracts they handed out to support the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and also just heavy investment in defense spending and R&D. But it extended to many other agencies.

The housing market in DC is not going to experience a noticeable cooling if Trump manages to send a few thousand EPA workers to Alabama. Some of those workers might be relieved at the idea that they can keep their job but move to a place where they can actually afford a 3 bedroom house.

Trump sucks but he'd have to crater the economy writ large to tank DC's housing market and he might even bolster it via privatization efforts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter who is elected, people still need homes and the supply of houses is still very low. High demand and low supply, plus interest rate cuts means higher prices.

Possibly true nationwide, but locally, there will be a dramatic housing price crash if Trump is elected.

I seriously doubt that.

Okay. This isn’t controversial or particularly political. But it is factual that he has pledged that if elected he will, from day 1, start cutting and laying off anyone he views as remotely political and he will be reducing head count massively across all agencies and be attempting to actually cut several agencies entirely. He also had said he will move large portions of some agencies and entire other agencies outside DC.

From a real estate investor perspective I don’t think it’s realistic that he will be able to cut entire agencies or move them entirely - too many lawsuits and union obstacles, but starting Jan 20 there will be a very significant (think 10% reduction) in federal employees in the dc area.

Maybe this is a good idea economically for the country but it’s going to knock a leg out from the dc housing market.

If he’s elected it might be a good idea to invest elsewhere, and with his interest in real estate he wants a good market, but it’s going to be very bad for the dmv. I’m always shocked that more real estate guys aren’t paying attention to this but it’s one of the clearer policy things he’s talked about.

The thing is that while the federal government remains the biggest employer in the region most of the growth in population in this area is linked to other sectors (tech and defense) that may work for the federal government but are not federal employees. There are also a lot of agencies that now contract out huge parts of their agency to private firms. Some of these jobs could be shipped out of the area as well but most would not -- they are too high level and the companies involved are too heavily invested in DC via physical investments. Also as long as high level decision makers remain in DC there will be limited impact on the massive shadow government and lobbying activity in this area.

Also the goverment has already shipped off a lot of low level and midlevel federal jobs that used to be in DC. That didn't even start under Trump. There have been other efforts to save money by shifting certain activities to places with lower cost of living and cheaper labor and real estate.

Unless Trump can successfully relocate Congress and the White House as well as the DOD the impact will be fairly minimal. The overall trend is not only for more growth in this region in the private sector but especially more higher paying jobs in these sectors. That is what has really driven up housing costs in DC in the last 20 years. It's not all the midlevel feds it's people in consulting and defense contracting and tech making large salaries. That's why a row house on Capitol Hill that cost 150k not that long ago now goes for a million. That's why upper NW and close in Bethesda are now pretty much unaffordable without 200-300k in income. That's why huge swaths of NoVa that used to be fairly affordable (lots of SFHs for less than 500k on big lots) are basically just million dollar tear downs or huge rebuilds going for 1.5m and up.

Republican administrations tend to contribute to this trend because of the push for privatization by the way. A lot of the current consulting and contracting infrastructure was built up during W's administration. A lot of it was linked to the huge contracts they handed out to support the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and also just heavy investment in defense spending and R&D. But it extended to many other agencies.

The housing market in DC is not going to experience a noticeable cooling if Trump manages to send a few thousand EPA workers to Alabama. Some of those workers might be relieved at the idea that they can keep their job but move to a place where they can actually afford a 3 bedroom house.

Trump sucks but he'd have to crater the economy writ large to tank DC's housing market and he might even bolster it via privatization efforts.

+1 This! 👍

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter who is elected, people still need homes and the supply of houses is still very low. High demand and low supply, plus interest rate cuts means higher prices.

Possibly true nationwide, but locally, there will be a dramatic housing price crash if Trump is elected.

ThErE's GoInG tO bE a HuGe CrAsH!!!!!! THE END IS NIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Baloney. Even with a Trump win, there is no chance the housing market will do anything but continue to improve. The multiple fed rate cuts will raise prices, and the pentup demand plus low supply means housing sales will grow.

yes... nationally.

but I'm not sure why people are ignoring the facts... just this week, Trump issued a video in which he said he will ship 100,000 federal jobs out of DC and classify another 50,000 as political appointees.

He has also expressed a desire to shut agencies like the EPA.

I do not think he will shut any agencies completely, and I don't think he could hit the 100k number, but if he partially closes any agency or if he gets even 20 percent of his goal for moving jobs out of DC, it will be noticeable in the market. Those figures also don't count jobs that he will want to flat out cut.

If you're looking at this from an investment standpoint, it means big opportunities in the places he ships the jobs to, but a downtick here. I'm not heavily invested in the DMV so I don't give a damn, and I think he will be good in general and on a national level for real estate investing, but why is everyone ignoring his stated intentions for DC?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter who is elected, people still need homes and the supply of houses is still very low. High demand and low supply, plus interest rate cuts means higher prices.

Possibly true nationwide, but locally, there will be a dramatic housing price crash if Trump is elected.

I seriously doubt that.

Okay. This isn’t controversial or particularly political. But it is factual that he has pledged that if elected he will, from day 1, start cutting and laying off anyone he views as remotely political and he will be reducing head count massively across all agencies and be attempting to actually cut several agencies entirely. He also had said he will move large portions of some agencies and entire other agencies outside DC.

From a real estate investor perspective I don’t think it’s realistic that he will be able to cut entire agencies or move them entirely - too many lawsuits and union obstacles, but starting Jan 20 there will be a very significant (think 10% reduction) in federal employees in the dc area.

Maybe this is a good idea economically for the country but it’s going to knock a leg out from the dc housing market.

If he’s elected it might be a good idea to invest elsewhere, and with his interest in real estate he wants a good market, but it’s going to be very bad for the dmv. I’m always shocked that more real estate guys aren’t paying attention to this but it’s one of the clearer policy things he’s talked about.

The thing is that while the federal government remains the biggest employer in the region most of the growth in population in this area is linked to other sectors (tech and defense) that may work for the federal government but are not federal employees. There are also a lot of agencies that now contract out huge parts of their agency to private firms. Some of these jobs could be shipped out of the area as well but most would not -- they are too high level and the companies involved are too heavily invested in DC via physical investments. Also as long as high level decision makers remain in DC there will be limited impact on the massive shadow government and lobbying activity in this area.

Also the goverment has already shipped off a lot of low level and midlevel federal jobs that used to be in DC. That didn't even start under Trump. There have been other efforts to save money by shifting certain activities to places with lower cost of living and cheaper labor and real estate.

Unless Trump can successfully relocate Congress and the White House as well as the DOD the impact will be fairly minimal. The overall trend is not only for more growth in this region in the private sector but especially more higher paying jobs in these sectors. That is what has really driven up housing costs in DC in the last 20 years. It's not all the midlevel feds it's people in consulting and defense contracting and tech making large salaries. That's why a row house on Capitol Hill that cost 150k not that long ago now goes for a million. That's why upper NW and close in Bethesda are now pretty much unaffordable without 200-300k in income. That's why huge swaths of NoVa that used to be fairly affordable (lots of SFHs for less than 500k on big lots) are basically just million dollar tear downs or huge rebuilds going for 1.5m and up.

Republican administrations tend to contribute to this trend because of the push for privatization by the way. A lot of the current consulting and contracting infrastructure was built up during W's administration. A lot of it was linked to the huge contracts they handed out to support the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and also just heavy investment in defense spending and R&D. But it extended to many other agencies.

The housing market in DC is not going to experience a noticeable cooling if Trump manages to send a few thousand EPA workers to Alabama. Some of those workers might be relieved at the idea that they can keep their job but move to a place where they can actually afford a 3 bedroom house.

Trump sucks but he'd have to crater the economy writ large to tank DC's housing market and he might even bolster it via privatization efforts.

It's not going to be 3,000 low level EPA workers to Alabama... his stated target for relocation ALONE is 100k, and I'd guess 20-50k is realistic. And that's just relocation. That WILL be noticeable in the market and it will shake it hard if he exceeds that. And for political reasons he's going to target the lawyers, the technocrats, etc... it's going to do a number on upper NW DC prices and near Maryland burbs. You're right the defense contractors in Nova are going to keep on keeping on, but he also is the type of person who will take offense because lobbyists from General United War Widgets didn't bow and scrape hard enough for Eric so eff them no more federal contracts, so if I had any government business in my portfolio I wouldn't be taking any risky real estate bets. This administration isn't going to have the steady old Pentagon hands who play the game...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter who is elected, people still need homes and the supply of houses is still very low. High demand and low supply, plus interest rate cuts means higher prices.

Possibly true nationwide, but locally, there will be a dramatic housing price crash if Trump is elected.

I seriously doubt that.

Okay. This isn’t controversial or particularly political. But it is factual that he has pledged that if elected he will, from day 1, start cutting and laying off anyone he views as remotely political and he will be reducing head count massively across all agencies and be attempting to actually cut several agencies entirely. He also had said he will move large portions of some agencies and entire other agencies outside DC.

From a real estate investor perspective I don’t think it’s realistic that he will be able to cut entire agencies or move them entirely - too many lawsuits and union obstacles, but starting Jan 20 there will be a very significant (think 10% reduction) in federal employees in the dc area.

Maybe this is a good idea economically for the country but it’s going to knock a leg out from the dc housing market.

If he’s elected it might be a good idea to invest elsewhere, and with his interest in real estate he wants a good market, but it’s going to be very bad for the dmv. I’m always shocked that more real estate guys aren’t paying attention to this but it’s one of the clearer policy things he’s talked about.

The thing is that while the federal government remains the biggest employer in the region most of the growth in population in this area is linked to other sectors (tech and defense) that may work for the federal government but are not federal employees. There are also a lot of agencies that now contract out huge parts of their agency to private firms. Some of these jobs could be shipped out of the area as well but most would not -- they are too high level and the companies involved are too heavily invested in DC via physical investments. Also as long as high level decision makers remain in DC there will be limited impact on the massive shadow government and lobbying activity in this area.

Also the goverment has already shipped off a lot of low level and midlevel federal jobs that used to be in DC. That didn't even start under Trump. There have been other efforts to save money by shifting certain activities to places with lower cost of living and cheaper labor and real estate.

Unless Trump can successfully relocate Congress and the White House as well as the DOD the impact will be fairly minimal. The overall trend is not only for more growth in this region in the private sector but especially more higher paying jobs in these sectors. That is what has really driven up housing costs in DC in the last 20 years. It's not all the midlevel feds it's people in consulting and defense contracting and tech making large salaries. That's why a row house on Capitol Hill that cost 150k not that long ago now goes for a million. That's why upper NW and close in Bethesda are now pretty much unaffordable without 200-300k in income. That's why huge swaths of NoVa that used to be fairly affordable (lots of SFHs for less than 500k on big lots) are basically just million dollar tear downs or huge rebuilds going for 1.5m and up.

Republican administrations tend to contribute to this trend because of the push for privatization by the way. A lot of the current consulting and contracting infrastructure was built up during W's administration. A lot of it was linked to the huge contracts they handed out to support the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and also just heavy investment in defense spending and R&D. But it extended to many other agencies.

The housing market in DC is not going to experience a noticeable cooling if Trump manages to send a few thousand EPA workers to Alabama. Some of those workers might be relieved at the idea that they can keep their job but move to a place where they can actually afford a 3 bedroom house.

Trump sucks but he'd have to crater the economy writ large to tank DC's housing market and he might even bolster it via privatization efforts.

Great points, I agree! Private industry is growing rapidly in DC.

[Anonymous]

Don't wait, buy NOW.

[Anonymous]

With an upcoming rate cut in September, interest and demand is picking up. If you can afford it, I would buy now and refinance later.

[Anonymous]

I've been reading that the Fed is planning at least 3 - 4 rate cuts, beginning in September. Chances are good that prices will go up. Buy now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter who is elected, people still need homes and the supply of houses is still very low. High demand and low supply, plus interest rate cuts means higher prices.

Possibly true nationwide, but locally, there will be a dramatic housing price crash if Trump is elected.

I seriously doubt that.

Okay. This isn’t controversial or particularly political. But it is factual that he has pledged that if elected he will, from day 1, start cutting and laying off anyone he views as remotely political and he will be reducing head count massively across all agencies and be attempting to actually cut several agencies entirely. He also had said he will move large portions of some agencies and entire other agencies outside DC.

From a real estate investor perspective I don’t think it’s realistic that he will be able to cut entire agencies or move them entirely - too many lawsuits and union obstacles, but starting Jan 20 there will be a very significant (think 10% reduction) in federal employees in the dc area.

Maybe this is a good idea economically for the country but it’s going to knock a leg out from the dc housing market.

If he’s elected it might be a good idea to invest elsewhere, and with his interest in real estate he wants a good market, but it’s going to be very bad for the dmv. I’m always shocked that more real estate guys aren’t paying attention to this but it’s one of the clearer policy things he’s talked about.

The thing is that while the federal government remains the biggest employer in the region most of the growth in population in this area is linked to other sectors (tech and defense) that may work for the federal government but are not federal employees. There are also a lot of agencies that now contract out huge parts of their agency to private firms. Some of these jobs could be shipped out of the area as well but most would not -- they are too high level and the companies involved are too heavily invested in DC via physical investments. Also as long as high level decision makers remain in DC there will be limited impact on the massive shadow government and lobbying activity in this area.

Also the goverment has already shipped off a lot of low level and midlevel federal jobs that used to be in DC. That didn't even start under Trump. There have been other efforts to save money by shifting certain activities to places with lower cost of living and cheaper labor and real estate.

Unless Trump can successfully relocate Congress and the White House as well as the DOD the impact will be fairly minimal. The overall trend is not only for more growth in this region in the private sector but especially more higher paying jobs in these sectors. That is what has really driven up housing costs in DC in the last 20 years. It's not all the midlevel feds it's people in consulting and defense contracting and tech making large salaries. That's why a row house on Capitol Hill that cost 150k not that long ago now goes for a million. That's why upper NW and close in Bethesda are now pretty much unaffordable without 200-300k in income. That's why huge swaths of NoVa that used to be fairly affordable (lots of SFHs for less than 500k on big lots) are basically just million dollar tear downs or huge rebuilds going for 1.5m and up.

Republican administrations tend to contribute to this trend because of the push for privatization by the way. A lot of the current consulting and contracting infrastructure was built up during W's administration. A lot of it was linked to the huge contracts they handed out to support the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and also just heavy investment in defense spending and R&D. But it extended to many other agencies.

The housing market in DC is not going to experience a noticeable cooling if Trump manages to send a few thousand EPA workers to Alabama. Some of those workers might be relieved at the idea that they can keep their job but move to a place where they can actually afford a 3 bedroom house.

Trump sucks but he'd have to crater the economy writ large to tank DC's housing market and he might even bolster it via privatization efforts.

Well, Trump already crashed the economy once (March 2020), so if you think he won’t let it crash again, I got a bridge to sell ya…

[Anonymous]

The homes prices are so inflated and these agents aren't and trying their best to pocket whatever commission they can. Some of these listing prices are ridiculous and just laughable. I am seeing many price drops however.