War with Iran Part II

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would anyone agree that Iran get nuclear weapons

It’s a farce. They don’t get nuclear weapons. They have enriched uranium and was just about to agree to not enrich it further in Feb 27.

Why would a country that has so much oil ever need uranium unless it's to build a nuclear weapon how can anybody say oh yeah sure you can enrich for uranium in an oil-rich country it's ridiculous no one should be fooled and in fact this is proof that they never stopped their nuclear program and should be sanctioned and removed from the planet

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would anyone agree that Iran get nuclear weapons

It’s a farce. They don’t get nuclear weapons. They have enriched uranium and was just about to agree to not enrich it further in Feb 27.

Why would a country that has so much oil ever need uranium unless it's to build a nuclear weapon how can anybody say oh yeah sure you can enrich for uranium in an oil-rich country it's ridiculous no one should be fooled and in fact this is proof that they never stopped their nuclear program and should be sanctioned and removed from the planet

The freakin Ayatollah who was killed put a FATWA on Nukes. Under the Obama agreement, they opened themselves up to inspection.

Frankly, they would be stupid NOT to develop nukes because it seems it's the only way to keep the bloodthirsty psychos who committed genocide at bay.

[Anonymous]

I said it before and I will say it again. Please read Avner Cohen’s book, “Israel and the Bomb.”

This is about Israeli hegemony in the region. That is all. They will also use it first.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would anyone agree that Iran get nuclear weapons

It’s a farce. They don’t get nuclear weapons. They have enriched uranium and was just about to agree to not enrich it further in Feb 27.

Why would a country that has so much oil ever need uranium unless it's to build a nuclear weapon how can anybody say oh yeah sure you can enrich for uranium in an oil-rich country it's ridiculous no one should be fooled and in fact this is proof that they never stopped their nuclear program and should be sanctioned and removed from the planet

So stupid. Energy needs to be diversified to mitigate changing circumstances and logistics. Why does the US need nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, and hydro?

Why are we trying to develop a viable hydrogen fuel cell? We already have Prudhoe, Permian, Bakken, and the Gulf... smh.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would anyone agree that Iran get nuclear weapons

It’s a farce. They don’t get nuclear weapons. They have enriched uranium and was just about to agree to not enrich it further in Feb 27.

Why would a country that has so much oil ever need uranium unless it's to build a nuclear weapon how can anybody say oh yeah sure you can enrich for uranium in an oil-rich country it's ridiculous no one should be fooled and in fact this is proof that they never stopped their nuclear program and should be sanctioned and removed from the planet

The freakin Ayatollah who was killed put a FATWA on Nukes. Under the Obama agreement, they opened themselves up to inspection.

Frankly, they would be stupid NOT to develop nukes because it seems it's the only way to keep the bloodthirsty psychos who committed genocide at bay.

You sound exasperated. I’ve realized it’s futile to have a discussion even if you are armed with facts if the other person clearly does not want to learn since they are an ideologue.

[Anonymous]

Regarding Trump's threat/decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran, color me a skeptic.

1. Taking more oil off the market, particularly the only oil that is now getting out from the Persian Gulf, will drive oil prices further up, and the paper price of oil will get closer to the actual price, which should be around $150 per barrel. A dramatic increase in inflation in the US will ensue. Avoiding this is precisely why Trump was stuck in a position where he had no escalatory options out of this conflict before the ceasefire. He still doesn't.

2. Stopping tankers carrying Iranian oil wouldn't just be an escalation vis-à-vis Iran, but also against the countries that are buying Iranian oil, which includes China, India, and other Asian countries. I doubt Trump is ready for that escalation, particularly given the upcoming summit in Beijing.

3. This is also true for punishing countries that have negotiated a toll with Iran for the Straits. That includes Pakistan, which hosted the negotiations.

4. The naval blockade escalation will make the closing of the Red Sea more likely by the Houthis. That would take another 12% of global oil flow off the market. We would now be looking at oil around $200 per barrel.

There are nine or so days left of the ceasefire. Since neither side has explicitly stated that talks won't resume, or that the ceasefire is dead and over with, all these moves should be treated as tactics and threats within the negotiations.

It wouldn't be surprising if these threats are walked back soon (perhaps before markets open on Monday) and a new round is announced.

HOWEVER, there is a time for brinkmanship, and there is a time for serious negotiations.

If the US truly was insisting on zero enrichment in Islamabad, which was not Trump's red line at first but rather Israel's, then the next talks will be rendered a failure - just as the talks in May 2025 were killed by Trump shifting to the Israeli red line.

Still, I don't think that necessarily will lead to a return to war. A more likely scenario is a new non-negotiated status quo in which Tehran retains control over the Straits but doesn't get any sanctions relief, while the US pulls out of the war, and the question becomes whether Israel will continue the war on its own.

-Trita Parsi 4/12/26

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would anyone agree that Iran get nuclear weapons

It’s a farce. They don’t get nuclear weapons. They have enriched uranium and was just about to agree to not enrich it further in Feb 27.

Why would a country that has so much oil ever need uranium unless it's to build a nuclear weapon how can anybody say oh yeah sure you can enrich for uranium in an oil-rich country it's ridiculous no one should be fooled and in fact this is proof that they never stopped their nuclear program and should be sanctioned and removed from the planet

The freakin Ayatollah who was killed put a FATWA on Nukes. Under the Obama agreement, they opened themselves up to inspection.

Frankly, they would be stupid NOT to develop nukes because it seems it's the only way to keep the bloodthirsty psychos who committed genocide at bay.

You sound exasperated. I’ve realized it’s futile to have a discussion even if you are armed with facts if the other person clearly does not want to learn since they are an ideologue.

dp - You are the one being obtuse here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I said it before and I will say it again. Please read Avner Cohen’s book, “Israel and the Bomb.”

This is about Israeli hegemony in the region. That is all. They will also use it first.

Go back even further. Yinon Plan. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and now attempting Iran all for the Zionist regime.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would anyone agree that Iran get nuclear weapons

It’s a farce. They don’t get nuclear weapons. They have enriched uranium and was just about to agree to not enrich it further in Feb 27.

Why would a country that has so much oil ever need uranium unless it's to build a nuclear weapon how can anybody say oh yeah sure you can enrich for uranium in an oil-rich country it's ridiculous no one should be fooled and in fact this is proof that they never stopped their nuclear program and should be sanctioned and removed from the planet

So stupid. Energy needs to be diversified to mitigate changing circumstances and logistics. Why does the US need nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, and hydro?

Why are we trying to develop a viable hydrogen fuel cell? We already have Prudhoe, Permian, Bakken, and the Gulf... smh.

These oil monkeys have no interest in energy diversity. They don’t have the luxury given their lack of sophistication and the sanctions.

So wait, that's what you call Persians? What do you call the Arabs, Kurds, and the jews?

[Anonymous]

Case in point: the mindset of Zionists. The non-Jew is an "oil monkey." Okaaaaaaaay.

No wonder Kushner keeps failing in his negotiating.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would anyone agree that Iran get nuclear weapons

It’s a farce. They don’t get nuclear weapons. They have enriched uranium and was just about to agree to not enrich it further in Feb 27.

Why would a country that has so much oil ever need uranium unless it's to build a nuclear weapon how can anybody say oh yeah sure you can enrich for uranium in an oil-rich country it's ridiculous no one should be fooled and in fact this is proof that they never stopped their nuclear program and should be sanctioned and removed from the planet

The USA produces between 14-20 million barrels of crude oil and liquid fuels per day, surpassing Iran's production by far. Why is the USA building new nuclear power plants and reactors as I type this post? Uranium can be used for more than a nuclear weapon. However, more importantly, who determines who should and should not have nuclear weapons? At least nine countries are known to have them: China, Russia, India, Pakistan, the UK, Israel, France, North Korea, and the USA. There are at least two more who have openly stated that they will begin the process of acquiring them, Poland and Germany, and not a whisper against those two countries. I hate to say this, but the Asians were wise not to comply with European countries to hold them back from acquiring nuclear weapons.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I said it before and I will say it again. Please read Avner Cohen’s book, “Israel and the Bomb.”

This is about Israeli hegemony in the region. That is all. They will also use it first.

They almost used it twice already. They don’t have a patience for actual war. Israel and the Us cannot handle long wars of attrition.

WW2 was a group of world nations and allies along with America. Soviet Union took down the Nazis on the ground more than anything else.

[Anonymous]

Trump was right. I am very tired of winning. It's just too much winning.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Regarding Trump's threat/decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran, color me a skeptic.

1. Taking more oil off the market, particularly the only oil that is now getting out from the Persian Gulf, will drive oil prices further up, and the paper price of oil will get closer to the actual price, which should be around $150 per barrel. A dramatic increase in inflation in the US will ensue. Avoiding this is precisely why Trump was stuck in a position where he had no escalatory options out of this conflict before the ceasefire. He still doesn't.

2. Stopping tankers carrying Iranian oil wouldn't just be an escalation vis-à-vis Iran, but also against the countries that are buying Iranian oil, which includes China, India, and other Asian countries. I doubt Trump is ready for that escalation, particularly given the upcoming summit in Beijing.

3. This is also true for punishing countries that have negotiated a toll with Iran for the Straits. That includes Pakistan, which hosted the negotiations.

4. The naval blockade escalation will make the closing of the Red Sea more likely by the Houthis. That would take another 12% of global oil flow off the market. We would now be looking at oil around $200 per barrel.

There are nine or so days left of the ceasefire. Since neither side has explicitly stated that talks won't resume, or that the ceasefire is dead and over with, all these moves should be treated as tactics and threats within the negotiations.

It wouldn't be surprising if these threats are walked back soon (perhaps before markets open on Monday) and a new round is announced.

HOWEVER, there is a time for brinkmanship, and there is a time for serious negotiations.

If the US truly was insisting on zero enrichment in Islamabad, which was not Trump's red line at first but rather Israel's, then the next talks will be rendered a failure - just as the talks in May 2025 were killed by Trump shifting to the Israeli red line.

Still, I don't think that necessarily will lead to a return to war. A more likely scenario is a new non-negotiated status quo in which Tehran retains control over the Straits but doesn't get any sanctions relief, while the US pulls out of the war, and the question becomes whether Israel will continue the war on its own.

-Trita Parsi 4/12/26

Good summary. The other possible outcome is just a longterm stalemate. The naval blockade will make it seem like America is still winning on foxnews, even though no Chinese vessels are actually diverted. Eventually oilsands and permian basin production will ramp up. Then we destroy Kharg island.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would anyone agree that Iran get nuclear weapons

It’s a farce. They don’t get nuclear weapons. They have enriched uranium and was just about to agree to not enrich it further in Feb 27.

Why would a country that has so much oil ever need uranium unless it's to build a nuclear weapon how can anybody say oh yeah sure you can enrich for uranium in an oil-rich country it's ridiculous no one should be fooled and in fact this is proof that they never stopped their nuclear program and should be sanctioned and removed from the planet

So stupid. Energy needs to be diversified to mitigate changing circumstances and logistics. Why does the US need nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, and hydro?

Why are we trying to develop a viable hydrogen fuel cell? We already have Prudhoe, Permian, Bakken, and the Gulf... smh.

These oil monkeys have no interest in energy diversity. They don’t have the luxury given their lack of sophistication and the sanctions.

So wait, that's what you call Persians? What do you call the Arabs, Kurds, and the jews?

Theyre upset they don’t have the oil and have to beg for welfare from the Us