I just don't think that if Trump wins, Dems will hold or take both houses. Maybe one, def not both. Current polling is sort of all over the place. Also, no, Dems really should not have nominated someone else. Please see that other thread about who that magical candidate would have been. There are people with a lot of promise, and no one who would have been a certain. Except maybe Shapiro in PA - but he's never been tested on the national stage, and if DeSantis and Noem have taught us anything, other than that Rs are super weird, it's that governors can look super promising and be total wet farts once they actually try to make it big. |
Incumbency is so strong in the US political system and has so many structural advantages. Again look at Lichtman's Keys to the Presidency - incumbency is one of the keys because it is so powerful. Just imagine if Dems were having a primary battle right now - candidates would be fighting for attention with Trump trials, Trump rallies, Gaza-Israel, Biden himself sucking up media oxygen, etc. Massive waste of money fighting amongst themselves. |
There is no situation where Trump is president and "the extremes are in check" Having a mobster narcissist surrounded by 'yes-men' in the White House is a lose-lose for the United States of America. |
There's a very good chance the Dems will re-take the house. At least it's headed in that direction as every special election seems to go the Dems way. The senat will be harder, with Tester in MT vulnerable, Hogan has a good chance of winning MD and A Republican will probably replace Manchin in WV. |
I really hope the tattooed vet running as a democrat wins West Virginia though. As he said “what do we (west Virginians) have to lose”? Republicans have not been good for West Virginia as a whole. Undrinkable water, no jobs. It should be a tourist mecca and its proximity to dc should mean good jobs. |
The media is really jonesing for a Trump win. |
That thread had plenty of solid candidates named but the op (you?) moved the goalposts to people who were actually running in a primary that wasn’t happening. If you make the question “what Joe Biden should the Democrats nominate instead of Joe Biden” you get the answer you asked for. |
Not to mention a corrupt SCOTUS and dysfunctional house (if Rs retain control). |
No, it's a win-win based on his sensible policies. You're so far to the left that you can't see it. BTW, Americans cheer an underdog, and in all four court cases Trump is the underdog. But please continue with the political persecution. |
NP. I was a long time republican voter up until 2016 so I'm not lefty. I voted for Dole, Bush twice, McCain and then Romney. Trump is about as extreme as it gets. |
Simon Rosenberg’s take on the NYT polling. This is guy who went against conventional wisdom in predicting the 2022 results.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/notes-on-the-nyt-polls-senator-coons |
Deplorables gotta deplore. |
You must be kidding |
What MAGAs call "political persecution" the rest of the sane country calls "rule of law" it is sad how far the GOP has fallen and sad that you are so far the right that you can't see it. |
Man, I feel like Simon stole my analysis from earlier this morning. Pay me my money, Simon! |