Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Biden's lead in Texas (TEXAS!!) is now outside of the margin of error.

It feels like someone is trolling us.

The new Dallas Morning News poll has Biden +8, margin of error 4.3%. Woohoo!

Correcting my post: Biden is +5, just outside the margin of error.

If Democrats start winning in Texas, that’s it. Even if it becomes a leaning R swing state like Florida is right now, that’s the last big firewall of the Republicans.

It's not an if. It's a when.

Trump may manage to make it happen sooner than anyone imagined.

So what happens afterwards? Do we have a period of time when the Dems dominate before some schism splits them in two and we end up like Britain with two left-of-center and one right-of-center parties?

Almost certainly not. Our system heavily punishes third parties sk that they never get anywhere. More likely the GOP revamps to attract more Latinos and moderates, so that a balance of power is maintained. However, Democrats would have the advantage for a while.

The GOP brand is really tarnished in some (many) quarters, and a lot of politics—I think it’s uncontroversial to say—is basically branding rather than rockribbed ideological commitment

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Biden's lead in Texas (TEXAS!!) is now outside of the margin of error.

It feels like someone is trolling us.

The new Dallas Morning News poll has Biden +8, margin of error 4.3%. Woohoo!

Correcting my post: Biden is +5, just outside the margin of error.

If Democrats start winning in Texas, that’s it. Even if it becomes a leaning R swing state like Florida is right now, that’s the last big firewall of the Republicans.

It's not an if. It's a when.

Trump may manage to make it happen sooner than anyone imagined.

So what happens afterwards? Do we have a period of time when the Dems dominate before some schism splits them in two and we end up like Britain with two left-of-center and one right-of-center parties?

Well, as Arizona, Texas, and Georgia become more competitive for Democrats, the upper Midwest is becoming more competitive for Republicans. Remember that Obama swept the Midwest in 2008 - he even won Indiana! And in 2012, he won them all except Indiana. Yet in 2016, only Illinois and Minnesota went for the Democrats. So we’re just seeing a change and expansion of the number of states that are competitive. Trump is uniquely unpopular, I don’t know if we can draw too many conclusions at this point.

[Anonymous]

I guess you haven't seen any polling over the past few months or results of elections over the past 2 years, but the Dems have been making major inroads in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Biden is a native of Pennsylavania, he will win that. Ohio, Texas, Georgia, NC nd Utah are all competitive for the dems this year.

[Anonymous]

It makes me laugh a bit that he talks about PA so much. They moved when he was 10. He was a Senator for Delaware.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It makes me laugh a bit that he talks about PA so much. They moved when he was 10. He was a Senator for Delaware.

He has family and a ton of friends there. The state generally identifies with him and loves him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It makes me laugh a bit that he talks about PA so much. They moved when he was 10. He was a Senator for Delaware.

It makes me laugh that Trump is from New York, lived his whole life there, but everyone there hates him and would never ever vote for him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I guess you haven't seen any polling over the past few months or results of elections over the past 2 years, but the Dems have been making major inroads in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Biden is a native of Pennsylavania, he will win that. Ohio, Texas, Georgia, NC nd Utah are all competitive for the dems this year.

Biden will almost certainly win PA and MI. He’ll win OH and NC if it’s starting to look like landslide territory. TX/GA/UT I think will still be out of reach for D’s nationally for now, but the fact that R’s now have to spend and defend in those states is going to cause massive heartburn. Biden stands a much stronger chance of winning FL and AZ.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It makes me laugh a bit that he talks about PA so much. They moved when he was 10. He was a Senator for Delaware.

It makes me laugh that Trump is from New York, lived his whole life there, but everyone there hates him and would never ever vote for him.

Yup. And now he's in Washington and everyone here hates him. And he might lose Florida.

He's an a$$hole. Nobody likes him.

[Anonymous]

Trump in 2015: "Everybody loves me."

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2015/07/08/trump-everyone-loves-me-intvw.cnn

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Analysis: Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout CNN

Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That's a very bad ratio for Republicans.

I wonder what their polls said about Kanye entering the race

What? Even if Kanye could still enter the presidential race, that would have zero effect on the House of Representatives races, the polls thereof, or who is choosing to release them or not.

But here’s how Kanye polls:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Analysis: Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout CNN

Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That's a very bad ratio for Republicans.

I wonder what their polls said about Kanye entering the race

What? Even if Kanye could still enter the presidential race, that would have zero effect on the House of Representatives races, the polls thereof, or who is choosing to release them or not.

But here’s how Kanye polls:

But, but, I thought Kanye was the spoiler sent to return the election to Trump?!

[Anonymous]

LOL Kanye

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Gravis Marketing is not a very well respected or rated pollster. I would love for them to be right in Florida on this, but I would take it with a huge grain of salt.