Is it a good time to buy now?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Buying a house now would be like buying a house right before a real estate crash.

With mortgage rates so high, home prices have to drop but that hasn’t happened yet.

+1 grab your popcorn and watch the real estate market crash. Sustaining these high rates makes it just a matter of time.

Why are rates high? To combat inflation. Housing prices will remain stagnant or increase either due to higher inflation or the lower rates that accompany lower inflation.

There won’t be a real estate crash because the Fed will lower rates before that happens. The Fed wants to slow the economy, not crash it, and they will lower rates to keep it afloat.

And if they can't or won't?

Powell has already said he has "tools" to deal with a recession. "Tools" is code for rates cuts.

Powell also said the inflation is transitory.

Still believe him and/or his tools?

They have already figured out they can print as much money as they want as long as they are the worlds top currency. They started printing (QE) in ‘08 and have not stopped regardless of what they say. It’s going to be fine, it can only get better

True, but that's already started to fall apart. Hence, the current rates and the bond market getting hammered (breaking 40 year trendlines).

Britton Woods was 1971 (getting off the gold standard) and the bond market took off. Fast forward ~40 years, and the Fed is cornered. The CAN'T let interest rates rise too much into positive real rate territory, and they CAN'T print money anymore (the bond market's broken now).

And the BRICS have already started trading in non-USD currencies, putting the Petro-Dollar into jeopardy.

Do you guys not see this or willful ignorance?

We literally can't sustain paying interest at these rates or higher for too long. It's a debt spiral. This is exactly why we end up like Japan- a massive amount of debt with yield curve control. Fed as the last resort buyer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Buying a house now would be like buying a house right before a real estate crash.

With mortgage rates so high, home prices have to drop but that hasn’t happened yet.

+1 grab your popcorn and watch the real estate market crash. Sustaining these high rates makes it just a matter of time.

Why are rates high? To combat inflation. Housing prices will remain stagnant or increase either due to higher inflation or the lower rates that accompany lower inflation.

There won’t be a real estate crash because the Fed will lower rates before that happens. The Fed wants to slow the economy, not crash it, and they will lower rates to keep it afloat.

And if they can't or won't?

Powell has already said he has "tools" to deal with a recession. "Tools" is code for rates cuts.

Powell also said the inflation is transitory.

Still believe him and/or his tools?

They have already figured out they can print as much money as they want as long as they are the worlds top currency. They started printing (QE) in ‘08 and have not stopped regardless of what they say. It’s going to be fine, it can only get better

True, but that's already started to fall apart. Hence, the current rates and the bond market getting hammered (breaking 40 year trendlines).

Britton Woods was 1971 (getting off the gold standard) and the bond market took off. Fast forward ~40 years, and the Fed is cornered. The CAN'T let interest rates rise too much into positive real rate territory, and they CAN'T print money anymore (the bond market's broken now).

And the BRICS have already started trading in non-USD currencies, putting the Petro-Dollar into jeopardy.

Do you guys not see this or willful ignorance?

We literally can't sustain paying interest at these rates or higher for too long. It's a debt spiral. This is exactly why we end up like Japan- a massive amount of debt with yield curve control. Fed as the last resort buyer.

Yeah, and the Japanese economy and people have been screwed for almost two decades.

[Anonymous]

More signs.



https://www.retaildive.com/news/macys-Q2-loss-small-format-expansion/691472/

Anybody buying now is literally looking to lose money in the next few years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More signs.



https://www.retaildive.com/news/macys-Q2-loss-small-format-expansion/691472/

Anybody buying now is literally looking to lose money in the next few years.

Yeah and you'll continue to have folks on here telling you it will never happen in DC - never! Imagine having such magical immunity.

[Anonymous]

We kept getting outbid last year when rates were low.

Rates are so grim right now. We are debating whether to wait out a bit longer. I’m regretting the wait because rates may get even higher before they come back down. The 3% rate seems to be a one off, right? It’s due to the unusual circumstances regarding the pandemic

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More signs.



https://www.retaildive.com/news/macys-Q2-loss-small-format-expansion/691472/

Macy’s has a failing business strategy. Nobody is shopping there because their whole concept is dated, but they aren’t going to admit that so they blame the economy. Go to the Ballston Macy’s and it’s a literal ghost town with barely any employees let alone customers inside.

Lululemon is thriving and saw a 24% increase in sales recently, so perhaps that shows people with disposable income are still willing and able to spend.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More signs.



https://www.retaildive.com/news/macys-Q2-loss-small-format-expansion/691472/

Macy’s has a failing business strategy. Nobody is shopping there because their whole concept is dated, but they aren’t going to admit that so they blame the economy. Go to the Ballston Macy’s and it’s a literal ghost town with barely any employees let alone customers inside.

Lululemon is thriving and saw a 24% increase in sales recently, so perhaps that shows people with disposable income are still willing and able to spend.

Picking an example that represents a very narrow discretionary spend, is not a bellwether for overall economic activity. Lululemon does not sell groceries.

Trendiness are trendlines, and it is a certainty that things revert to the mean. Yes, while you're "up there", it feels like it'll never come down, but it will.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More signs.



https://www.retaildive.com/news/macys-Q2-loss-small-format-expansion/691472/

Macy’s has a failing business strategy. Nobody is shopping there because their whole concept is dated, but they aren’t going to admit that so they blame the economy. Go to the Ballston Macy’s and it’s a literal ghost town with barely any employees let alone customers inside.

Lululemon is thriving and saw a 24% increase in sales recently, so perhaps that shows people with disposable income are still willing and able to spend.

+1 I live in a different area and the Macy's here is eerily empty. Plus a lot of their stuff is junk. I do better going to Marshalls or Nordstrom Rack, both of which are constantly packed.

[Anonymous]

bwahahahaha...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We kept getting outbid last year when rates were low.

Rates are so grim right now. We are debating whether to wait out a bit longer. I’m regretting the wait because rates may get even higher before they come back down. The 3% rate seems to be a one off, right? It’s due to the unusual circumstances regarding the pandemic

Can you find a place in a neighborhood that’s rougher around the edges (see crime surge) and underbid? We did that in 2005 when prices were at a peak— right before falling. We stretched to get a nicer place but the neighborhood was iffy, though central with nice houses. Paid $600k back then (actually had sn interest only loan at first, then refi’ed into a 30 year and much later locked in 2.5 rate, and it’s now worth $1.1m. ) the neighborhood is now very upscale, with new $1.8 m condos nearby.

[jordan31]

while refinancing if your house price is down you need to put difference on table. no realtor mentions that. right now all prices including handyman is high , why not to just get interest 5% on your down payment and enjoy free rent instead taking all trouble of paying high price.
even if you take 400k loan your interest only will be 28k... think about over all payment and expense....

[Anonymous]

jordan31 wrote:while refinancing if your house price is down you need to put difference on table. no realtor mentions that. right now all prices including handyman is high , why not to just get interest 5% on your down payment and enjoy free rent instead taking all trouble of paying high price.
even if you take 400k loan your interest only will be 28k... think about over all payment and expense....

In English, please?

[Anonymous]

High rates make home buying easier for first time buyers

High rates puts brakes on rapid home price appreciation. No rush to buy.

High rates mean much greater yield in savings accounts.

Think about this. I want to buy a 600k started home get married 2023 and start savings.

Well in 2030 that 600k house will still be 600k. I put $2,000 a month in house fund at 6 percent interest compounding. By 2030 I have a huge downpayment

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:High rates make home buying easier for first time buyers

High rates puts brakes on rapid home price appreciation. No rush to buy.

High rates mean much greater yield in savings accounts.

Think about this. I want to buy a 600k started home get married 2023 and start savings.

Well in 2030 that 600k house will still be 600k. I put $2,000 a month in house fund at 6 percent interest compounding. By 2030 I have a huge downpayment

WTF are you rambling about?

[Anonymous]

30-yr fixed 8.151%
15-yr fixed 7.175%
10 / 6 ARM 7.773%

Those rates above are average rates today. Most of DCUM pays way less, but average includes blending rates higher risk borrowers.

My bank only the 5/5 adjustable is a good rate but that adjusts ever five years and even though 6 percent, if rates go up more the ouch