2001, 2008, or 2022

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Aaaaaannd Google missed. MSFT did not post a strong ER with bullish guidance....if their call does not impress it is game over for the market.

This is going to get very ugly quick. Now the mega caps that make up the largest weighted portion of the indexes are going to get pounded into bone dust. Tesla just fell 11% in a day and makes up a huge portion of the index. This is going to be so brutal. We aren't even into sell in May and go away yet..oof.

LOL "game over". It's only brutal if you have a stupid portfolio populated with tech stocks.

you people panic so much...if you are panicking why are you invested?? The dow is down less than 10% YTD, S&P Down 12% and the NASDAQ is down 20%. if you are down more than 20% you clearly have no idea what you're doing. The NASDAQ is not "the market."

These types of declines are quite regular. Most investors just have a short term bias. Value stocks are holding up quite well. If you diversify just go back to bed and come back in a few months.

You are the dumb mindless type programmed to automatically buy the dip, because the fed was always there to save you over the last 14 years. The game is over because the Fed put no longer exists..so many idiots primed to buy any dip are going to get torched. The market has almost zero experience with quantitative tightening, so no, it really cannot be priced in easily as predictable rates hikes can that have models. Once QT happens it will also. completely upend the equity risk premium for owning stocks and.teillions will flow into bonds.

You are an idiot of you are oblivious to the lack of depth in this market. Once Apple, Tesla, Google, and Microsoft fall, all of the people that.mindlessly plug away investing into funds and ETFs that largely track the S and P 500.will get crushed.. There are tons of boomers now on the verge of retiring who may lose a huge amount of the retirement nest egg right before retiring.

Get it through your skull. There is no more fed put. There is QT. [/quote

Stop name calling. You lose all credibility. Do you do this in your professional life? No wonder youre not successful...]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Aaaaaannd Google missed. MSFT did not post a strong ER with bullish guidance....if their call does not impress it is game over for the market.

This is going to get very ugly quick. Now the mega caps that make up the largest weighted portion of the indexes are going to get pounded into bone dust. Tesla just fell 11% in a day and makes up a huge portion of the index. This is going to be so brutal. We aren't even into sell in May and go away yet..oof.

LOL "game over". It's only brutal if you have a stupid portfolio populated with tech stocks.

you people panic so much...if you are panicking why are you invested?? The dow is down less than 10% YTD, S&P Down 12% and the NASDAQ is down 20%. if you are down more than 20% you clearly have no idea what you're doing. The NASDAQ is not "the market."

These types of declines are quite regular. Most investors just have a short term bias. Value stocks are holding up quite well. If you diversify just go back to bed and come back in a few months.

You are the dumb mindless type programmed to automatically buy the dip, because the fed was always there to save you over the last 14 years. The game is over because the Fed put no longer exists..so many idiots primed to buy any dip are going to get torched. The market has almost zero experience with quantitative tightening, so no, it really cannot be priced in easily as predictable rates hikes can that have models. Once QT happens it will also. completely upend the equity risk premium for owning stocks and.teillions will flow into bonds.

You are an idiot of you are oblivious to the lack of depth in this market. Once Apple, Tesla, Google, and Microsoft fall, all of the people that.mindlessly plug away investing into funds and ETFs that largely track the S and P 500.will get crushed.. There are tons of boomers now on the verge of retiring who may lose a huge amount of the retirement nest egg right before retiring.

Get it through your skull. There is no more fed put. There is QT.

LOL

I'm partner at a 6B investment firm whose made millions investing for others. But sure. I'll trust you and all your credentials. I speak with people like you all the time, fire them, then they crawl back a few years later because they have all their money in cash and missed the rebound.

I'll do my way. You be an irrational investor who let's their emotions dictate a long term investment plan.

Lol, big whoop. You're just like every other idiot on wall street who can only do groupthink and is too afraid to make any bold calls. Omg, you're such an investing genius over the last 14 years when all the stock market has ever done is go up because of an accommodative Fed. Every single person is a genius at investing when the market only ever goes up. Financial 'professionals' barely beat the market and charge an arm and a leg for it. They also have vested interest to tell everyone to stay the course and that everything is fine, because their entire livelihood depends on people staying in their overpriced funds where the managers can get their fees. It's gonna be entertaining watching fund managers destroy half their clients' wealth on paper, because don't you know? StOcKS OnLY EVeR Go Up!! even though the easy Fed money is gone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

Dude, shut up. This is not a nothing burger. The market is looking very sick and there has been a lot of pain already. You are only looking at indexes propped up by mega caps, but many companies have already gotten haircuts by like 50%. There's no depth to the market at all.

Dude? Get your big boy pants on. It's going to be OK. We may drop 30% from the high, but thus is NORMAL. Maybe not since you've been in the market, but if you take the long view as all the smarter (than you) folks are suggesting you'll make money in the end. Just don't pull your money out and keep drip feeding. Or just stop putting money in because you don't really have the balls to be in.

Name the number of times the market has had experience with quantitative tightening. And tightening to roll off multiple trillions. I'll wait. Then tell me.again 'this is normal' with a straight face.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Aaaaaannd Google missed. MSFT did not post a strong ER with bullish guidance....if their call does not impress it is game over for the market.

This is going to get very ugly quick. Now the mega caps that make up the largest weighted portion of the indexes are going to get pounded into bone dust. Tesla just fell 11% in a day and makes up a huge portion of the index. This is going to be so brutal. We aren't even into sell in May and go away yet..oof.

LOL "game over". It's only brutal if you have a stupid portfolio populated with tech stocks.

you people panic so much...if you are panicking why are you invested?? The dow is down less than 10% YTD, S&P Down 12% and the NASDAQ is down 20%. if you are down more than 20% you clearly have no idea what you're doing. The NASDAQ is not "the market."

These types of declines are quite regular. Most investors just have a short term bias. Value stocks are holding up quite well. If you diversify just go back to bed and come back in a few months.

You are the dumb mindless type programmed to automatically buy the dip, because the fed was always there to save you over the last 14 years. The game is over because the Fed put no longer exists..so many idiots primed to buy any dip are going to get torched. The market has almost zero experience with quantitative tightening, so no, it really cannot be priced in easily as predictable rates hikes can that have models. Once QT happens it will also. completely upend the equity risk premium for owning stocks and.teillions will flow into bonds.

You are an idiot of you are oblivious to the lack of depth in this market. Once Apple, Tesla, Google, and Microsoft fall, all of the people that.mindlessly plug away investing into funds and ETFs that largely track the S and P 500.will get crushed.. There are tons of boomers now on the verge of retiring who may lose a huge amount of the retirement nest egg right before retiring.

Get it through your skull. There is no more fed put. There is QT.

LOL

I'm partner at a 6B investment firm whose made millions investing for others. But sure. I'll trust you and all your credentials. I speak with people like you all the time, fire them, then they crawl back a few years later because they have all their money in cash and missed the rebound.

I'll do my way. You be an irrational investor who let's their emotions dictate a long term investment plan.

DP. What will happen to option premiums as interest rates rise? Will they go up too to compensate?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

Dude, shut up. This is not a nothing burger. The market is looking very sick and there has been a lot of pain already. You are only looking at indexes propped up by mega caps, but many companies have already gotten haircuts by like 50%. There's no depth to the market at all.

Dude? Get your big boy pants on. It's going to be OK. We may drop 30% from the high, but thus is NORMAL. Maybe not since you've been in the market, but if you take the long view as all the smarter (than you) folks are suggesting you'll make money in the end. Just don't pull your money out and keep drip feeding. Or just stop putting money in because you don't really have the balls to be in.

Name the number of times the market has had experience with quantitative tightening. And tightening to roll off multiple trillions. I'll wait. Then tell me.again 'this is normal' with a straight face.

Sorry, you're not worth the response. Just do it your way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

I have no idea how low the market will go, but I do know that the things that concern the market -- rising interest rates, Fed liquidating its balance sheet, supply chain problems (due to China covid shutdowns as well as Russia/Ukraine), are just getting started. Oil prices aren't higher than they are because the market is pricing in a demand drop. The market has been borrowing from the future, and now it's time to pay the piper.

Has the market priced in all these things properly? Maybe. Maybe not. Every expert I know thinks we're not anywhere near the bottom.

I am a so called expert and have no clue. No one does. Your friends that are experts don't know either. We are just paid to provide our thoughts. I can go on CNBC and say we are nowhere near the bottom or we are at the bottom. Half the people would believe, half would think I am crazy. Hold on, keep investing and it will pass. Remember COVID? Remember 2008? Remember 2001? Look where your portfolio is now.

I suspect I've been in the market longer than you and have ridden through more investment downturns. Remember the S&L Crisis? No one is panicking, just pointing out that the "this is a nothing burger" people are just whistling through the graveyard. In retrospect, 2001 was a nothing burger. In 2008 and for COVID, the Fed had tools that it doesn't have now. The Fed is purposefully causing the downturn. Can they do it in a measured way? Maybe. The Fed has never had almost $6 trillion in bonds on its balance sheet to unload, so we have no idea how it's going to work. Pretending that nothing's wrong isn't going to help anyone. It is better to be prepared and be pleasantly surprised than the other way around.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

I have no idea how low the market will go, but I do know that the things that concern the market -- rising interest rates, Fed liquidating its balance sheet, supply chain problems (due to China covid shutdowns as well as Russia/Ukraine), are just getting started. Oil prices aren't higher than they are because the market is pricing in a demand drop. The market has been borrowing from the future, and now it's time to pay the piper.

Has the market priced in all these things properly? Maybe. Maybe not. Every expert I know thinks we're not anywhere near the bottom.

I am a so called expert and have no clue. No one does. Your friends that are experts don't know either. We are just paid to provide our thoughts. I can go on CNBC and say we are nowhere near the bottom or we are at the bottom. Half the people would believe, half would think I am crazy. Hold on, keep investing and it will pass. Remember COVID? Remember 2008? Remember 2001? Look where your portfolio is now.

Terrible analogy. Because now we have record inflation and a tightening fed raising rates and primed to destroy cash. The era of easy money and historic bull run after 2008 is over.

So how are you invested?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

I have no idea how low the market will go, but I do know that the things that concern the market -- rising interest rates, Fed liquidating its balance sheet, supply chain problems (due to China covid shutdowns as well as Russia/Ukraine), are just getting started. Oil prices aren't higher than they are because the market is pricing in a demand drop. The market has been borrowing from the future, and now it's time to pay the piper.

Has the market priced in all these things properly? Maybe. Maybe not. Every expert I know thinks we're not anywhere near the bottom.

I am a so called expert and have no clue. No one does. Your friends that are experts don't know either. We are just paid to provide our thoughts. I can go on CNBC and say we are nowhere near the bottom or we are at the bottom. Half the people would believe, half would think I am crazy. Hold on, keep investing and it will pass. Remember COVID? Remember 2008? Remember 2001? Look where your portfolio is now.

I suspect I've been in the market longer than you and have ridden through more investment downturns. Remember the S&L Crisis? No one is panicking, just pointing out that the "this is a nothing burger" people are just whistling through the graveyard. In retrospect, 2001 was a nothing burger. In 2008 and for COVID, the Fed had tools that it doesn't have now. The Fed is purposefully causing the downturn. Can they do it in a measured way? Maybe. The Fed has never had almost $6 trillion in bonds on its balance sheet to unload, so we have no idea how it's going to work. Pretending that nothing's wrong isn't going to help anyone. It is better to be prepared and be pleasantly surprised than the other way around.

How to be prepared?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

I have no idea how low the market will go, but I do know that the things that concern the market -- rising interest rates, Fed liquidating its balance sheet, supply chain problems (due to China covid shutdowns as well as Russia/Ukraine), are just getting started. Oil prices aren't higher than they are because the market is pricing in a demand drop. The market has been borrowing from the future, and now it's time to pay the piper.

Has the market priced in all these things properly? Maybe. Maybe not. Every expert I know thinks we're not anywhere near the bottom.

I am a so called expert and have no clue. No one does. Your friends that are experts don't know either. We are just paid to provide our thoughts. I can go on CNBC and say we are nowhere near the bottom or we are at the bottom. Half the people would believe, half would think I am crazy. Hold on, keep investing and it will pass. Remember COVID? Remember 2008? Remember 2001? Look where your portfolio is now.

I think what people are trying to say is that usually the BEST time to buy is when nobody wants to own stocks. That's clearly not yet based just on the small sample here. You bet I was buying stocks when Bill Ackman was crying on tv in March 2020 or whenever it was but that's not now, we aren't there yet. And to my point- I bought USO on April 20, 2020, had I waited just another week I would have gotten it a further 50% off and effectively doubled my profits. Timing does matter in fast.moving markets, though admittedly it's 99% luck.

Totally agree with you, BUT timing the market is very hard. So, it's better to drip feed all the way down and all the way up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

Dude, shut up. This is not a nothing burger. The market is looking very sick and there has been a lot of pain already. You are only looking at indexes propped up by mega caps, but many companies have already gotten haircuts by like 50%. There's no depth to the market at all.

Dude? Get your big boy pants on. It's going to be OK. We may drop 30% from the high, but thus is NORMAL. Maybe not since you've been in the market, but if you take the long view as all the smarter (than you) folks are suggesting you'll make money in the end. Just don't pull your money out and keep drip feeding. Or just stop putting money in because you don't really have the balls to be in.

Name the number of times the market has had experience with quantitative tightening. And tightening to roll off multiple trillions. I'll wait. Then tell me.again 'this is normal' with a straight face.

Sorry, you're not worth the response. Just do it your way.

Ahhhhh. The 'financial professional' is too scared to tell everyone the truth - and that's the fact that the market has virtually ZERO experience with quantitative tightening (except for only about one other time), especially with QT requiring trillions in roll off. What the financial professional doesn't tell you is that no financial models exist for QT, unlike how rate hikes can be priced into DCF models they finance clowns like to use for attempting to value companies and stocks. QT is basically going to be an unprecedented shock.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think 2022 is anything like previous crashes. We are barely in correction territory. Compare to historical crashes, it hasn't been that bad (yet).

It feels so much worse.

Were you in diapers in 2008? The stock market swing were headline news everyday. Everybody I mean everybody became a stock index watcher. Banks were failing, FDIC was swooping in.

We have a wobble and are still up for the last 3 years.

I hardly had any money in the market in 2008.

Even if you didn’t (we didn’t have near as much either in our mid 20s), the job losses were SO devastating. And if you were lucky enough to to keep your job, you didn’t get a pay raise for 4 or so years. 2008 has still held my DH and I back in some respects, professionally and financially.

Yes, I knew a lot of people coming out of law school whose careers literally never started.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

I have no idea how low the market will go, but I do know that the things that concern the market -- rising interest rates, Fed liquidating its balance sheet, supply chain problems (due to China covid shutdowns as well as Russia/Ukraine), are just getting started. Oil prices aren't higher than they are because the market is pricing in a demand drop. The market has been borrowing from the future, and now it's time to pay the piper.

Has the market priced in all these things properly? Maybe. Maybe not. Every expert I know thinks we're not anywhere near the bottom.

I am a so called expert and have no clue. No one does. Your friends that are experts don't know either. We are just paid to provide our thoughts. I can go on CNBC and say we are nowhere near the bottom or we are at the bottom. Half the people would believe, half would think I am crazy. Hold on, keep investing and it will pass. Remember COVID? Remember 2008? Remember 2001? Look where your portfolio is now.

I suspect I've been in the market longer than you and have ridden through more investment downturns. Remember the S&L Crisis? No one is panicking, just pointing out that the "this is a nothing burger" people are just whistling through the graveyard. In retrospect, 2001 was a nothing burger. In 2008 and for COVID, the Fed had tools that it doesn't have now. The Fed is purposefully causing the downturn. Can they do it in a measured way? Maybe. The Fed has never had almost $6 trillion in bonds on its balance sheet to unload, so we have no idea how it's going to work. Pretending that nothing's wrong isn't going to help anyone. It is better to be prepared and be pleasantly surprised than the other way around.

+1

What exactly are the nothing burger and stay the course for the long haul finance pros telling us? They're not telling us anything new. Like, duh, no crap stocks go up......if you hold long enough because the GDP of the country should grow. Did you need a slide ruler and 1.5% advisor fees to figure that one out? If you're paying someone so much money to invest and manage your money, they should at least a).beat the market, and b) be able to prevent so much volatility in your portfolio. It doesn't really help someone who wants to retire in 10 years if their portfolio, run by a 'finance pro', tanks and takes 15 years to recover. It doesn't take an IQ and a degree from Wharton to know they the stock market goes up if you wait.long enough because the economy grows (hopefully).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

Dude, shut up. This is not a nothing burger. The market is looking very sick and there has been a lot of pain already. You are only looking at indexes propped up by mega caps, but many companies have already gotten haircuts by like 50%. There's no depth to the market at all.

Dude? Get your big boy pants on. It's going to be OK. We may drop 30% from the high, but thus is NORMAL. Maybe not since you've been in the market, but if you take the long view as all the smarter (than you) folks are suggesting you'll make money in the end. Just don't pull your money out and keep drip feeding. Or just stop putting money in because you don't really have the balls to be in.

Name the number of times the market has had experience with quantitative tightening. And tightening to roll off multiple trillions. I'll wait. Then tell me.again 'this is normal' with a straight face.

Sorry, you're not worth the response. Just do it your way.

Ahhhhh. The 'financial professional' is too scared to tell everyone the truth - and that's the fact that the market has virtually ZERO experience with quantitative tightening (except for only about one other time), especially with QT requiring trillions in roll off. What the financial professional doesn't tell you is that no financial models exist for QT, unlike how rate hikes can be priced into DCF models they finance clowns like to use for attempting to value companies and stocks. QT is basically going to be an unprecedented shock.

Except... QT is a controlled proven government strategy. Other than that...

[Anonymous]

Hot labor markets tend to lead to lower capital returns. With wage growth so strong this should especially be the case this time. Good news for the workers, not so good for the owners. Corporate profits have been taking a larger share of gdp for decades, this is good news….but maybe not for your portfolio unless the wage growth can also fuel at least some profit growth.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

Dude, shut up. This is not a nothing burger. The market is looking very sick and there has been a lot of pain already. You are only looking at indexes propped up by mega caps, but many companies have already gotten haircuts by like 50%. There's no depth to the market at all.

Dude? Get your big boy pants on. It's going to be OK. We may drop 30% from the high, but thus is NORMAL. Maybe not since you've been in the market, but if you take the long view as all the smarter (than you) folks are suggesting you'll make money in the end. Just don't pull your money out and keep drip feeding. Or just stop putting money in because you don't really have the balls to be in.

Name the number of times the market has had experience with quantitative tightening. And tightening to roll off multiple trillions. I'll wait. Then tell me.again 'this is normal' with a straight face.

Sorry, you're not worth the response. Just do it your way.

Ahhhhh. The 'financial professional' is too scared to tell everyone the truth - and that's the fact that the market has virtually ZERO experience with quantitative tightening (except for only about one other time), especially with QT requiring trillions in roll off. What the financial professional doesn't tell you is that no financial models exist for QT, unlike how rate hikes can be priced into DCF models they finance clowns like to use for attempting to value companies and stocks. QT is basically going to be an unprecedented shock.

DP. You might be right, you might not. But time and time again in my life I’ve seen people panic, sell everything, and then either they sold near the bottom, or they were too scared to get back in when they need to. If my portfolio dips by 50% and takes years to recover I’ll be ok.

I learned my lessons about active management from decades of actively managed funds and accounts and watching my net worth lag the indices, all the time, every time.

Your tone is not helping your position at all.