2001, 2008, or 2022

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

Dude, shut up. This is not a nothing burger. The market is looking very sick and there has been a lot of pain already. You are only looking at indexes propped up by mega caps, but many companies have already gotten haircuts by like 50%. There's no depth to the market at all.

Dude? Get your big boy pants on. It's going to be OK. We may drop 30% from the high, but thus is NORMAL. Maybe not since you've been in the market, but if you take the long view as all the smarter (than you) folks are suggesting you'll make money in the end. Just don't pull your money out and keep drip feeding. Or just stop putting money in because you don't really have the balls to be in.

Name the number of times the market has had experience with quantitative tightening. And tightening to roll off multiple trillions. I'll wait. Then tell me.again 'this is normal' with a straight face.

Sorry, you're not worth the response. Just do it your way.

Ahhhhh. The 'financial professional' is too scared to tell everyone the truth - and that's the fact that the market has virtually ZERO experience with quantitative tightening (except for only about one other time), especially with QT requiring trillions in roll off. What the financial professional doesn't tell you is that no financial models exist for QT, unlike how rate hikes can be priced into DCF models they finance clowns like to use for attempting to value companies and stocks. QT is basically going to be an unprecedented shock.

DP. You might be right, you might not. But time and time again in my life I’ve seen people panic, sell everything, and then either they sold near the bottom, or they were too scared to get back in when they need to. If my portfolio dips by 50% and takes years to recover I’ll be ok.

I learned my lessons about active management from decades of actively managed funds and accounts and watching my net worth lag the indices, all the time, every time.

Your tone is not helping your position at all.

+1
I think we have some experienced folks (like you) here and some novices, who need time to grow into investing. Emotional decisions are never good ones. So the name calling and emotional tone of PP really makes him/her sound immature and not credible. Oh well, live and learn.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Aaaaaannd Google missed. MSFT did not post a strong ER with bullish guidance....if their call does not impress it is game over for the market.

This is going to get very ugly quick. Now the mega caps that make up the largest weighted portion of the indexes are going to get pounded into bone dust. Tesla just fell 11% in a day and makes up a huge portion of the index. This is going to be so brutal. We aren't even into sell in May and go away yet..oof.

LOL "game over". It's only brutal if you have a stupid portfolio populated with tech stocks.

you people panic so much...if you are panicking why are you invested?? The dow is down less than 10% YTD, S&P Down 12% and the NASDAQ is down 20%. if you are down more than 20% you clearly have no idea what you're doing. The NASDAQ is not "the market."

These types of declines are quite regular. Most investors just have a short term bias. Value stocks are holding up quite well. If you diversify just go back to bed and come back in a few months.

You are the dumb mindless type programmed to automatically buy the dip, because the fed was always there to save you over the last 14 years. The game is over because the Fed put no longer exists..so many idiots primed to buy any dip are going to get torched. The market has almost zero experience with quantitative tightening, so no, it really cannot be priced in easily as predictable rates hikes can that have models. Once QT happens it will also. completely upend the equity risk premium for owning stocks and.teillions will flow into bonds.

You are an idiot of you are oblivious to the lack of depth in this market. Once Apple, Tesla, Google, and Microsoft fall, all of the people that.mindlessly plug away investing into funds and ETFs that largely track the S and P 500.will get crushed.. There are tons of boomers now on the verge of retiring who may lose a huge amount of the retirement nest egg right before retiring.

Get it through your skull. There is no more fed put. There is QT.

LOL

I'm partner at a 6B investment firm whose made millions investing for others. But sure. I'll trust you and all your credentials. I speak with people like you all the time, fire them, then they crawl back a few years later because they have all their money in cash and missed the rebound.

I'll do my way. You be an irrational investor who let's their emotions dictate a long term investment plan.

Lol, big whoop. You're just like every other idiot on wall street who can only do groupthink and is too afraid to make any bold calls. Omg, you're such an investing genius over the last 14 years when all the stock market has ever done is go up because of an accommodative Fed. Every single person is a genius at investing when the market only ever goes up. Financial 'professionals' barely beat the market and charge an arm and a leg for it. They also have vested interest to tell everyone to stay the course and that everything is fine, because their entire livelihood depends on people staying in their overpriced funds where the managers can get their fees. It's gonna be entertaining watching fund managers destroy half their clients' wealth on paper, because don't you know? StOcKS OnLY EVeR Go Up!! even though the easy Fed money is gone.

Whenever anyone claims that "everyone is an idiot but me," it's practically guaranteed that they're the biggest idiot of the bunch.

[Anonymous]

I've been investing 10% of every paycheck + my 401k for the last 10 years in broad index funds. I don't plan on shifting until I start moving to bonds just before retirement. The only reason to do otherwise, would be if I was an investment professional myself. Which I'm not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

Dude, shut up. This is not a nothing burger. The market is looking very sick and there has been a lot of pain already. You are only looking at indexes propped up by mega caps, but many companies have already gotten haircuts by like 50%. There's no depth to the market at all.

Dude? Get your big boy pants on. It's going to be OK. We may drop 30% from the high, but thus is NORMAL. Maybe not since you've been in the market, but if you take the long view as all the smarter (than you) folks are suggesting you'll make money in the end. Just don't pull your money out and keep drip feeding. Or just stop putting money in because you don't really have the balls to be in.

Name the number of times the market has had experience with quantitative tightening. And tightening to roll off multiple trillions. I'll wait. Then tell me.again 'this is normal' with a straight face.

Sorry, you're not worth the response. Just do it your way.

Ahhhhh. The 'financial professional' is too scared to tell everyone the truth - and that's the fact that the market has virtually ZERO experience with quantitative tightening (except for only about one other time), especially with QT requiring trillions in roll off. What the financial professional doesn't tell you is that no financial models exist for QT, unlike how rate hikes can be priced into DCF models they finance clowns like to use for attempting to value companies and stocks. QT is basically going to be an unprecedented shock.

Except... QT is a controlled proven government strategy. Other than that...

"Proven?" Six trillion dollars worth of bonds? No. No one knows how this is going to work. The Fed chickened out the last time they tried to do it in a meaningful way.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/quantitative-tightening-could-set-off-a-lengthy-tantrum-11649277856

The ultimate impact of quantitative tightening on either financial markets or the economy is hard to gauge, since the U.S. experience of it is limited to the 2017-to-2019 round. That wasn’t particularly disturbing for investors, largely because the Fed had spent so much time preparing them for its eventuality. In contrast, when in May 2013 then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that the central bank later that year might begin tapering its asset purchases, investors weren’t ready, and it set off the so-called taper tantrum that drove Treasury yields sharply higher. That ended up weighing on the economy—particularly the housing market—and eventually led the Fed to postpone its plans to stop expanding its asset portfolio.

This time, the Fed’s move toward quantitative tightening looks to have more in common with the taper-tantrum episode. Investors certainly knew that tightening was on the way, but it is coming a bit more quickly than they might have guessed just a couple of weeks ago, and the speed with which the Fed plans to shrink its portfolio might be faster, as well.

When the taper tantrum struck, the Fed was still trying to nurse the U.S. economy back to health while now it is deeply worried that high inflation is becoming ingrained in people’s expectations. This suggests the Fed won’t be so easily pushed off its plans this time. The quantitative-tightening tantrum could go on a lot longer than the taper tantrum did.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

Nasdaq is down 20% from its peak last year. That is actually quite a bit.

It's not. Normal stuff.

Down 20% in 3 months is not normal. It shows that the market was (and still is) very inflated. Big banks are warning of a recession, not that it’s a big surprise.

That is utter noise. We are up 300% since 2016. There is no way we are dropping anywhere near that; Nasdeq companies are taking over the world

DP- Nasdaq on track for it's worse month since October 2008. Take that as you will.

The worst month since the longest bull market ever started... again, nothing burger.

Dude, shut up. This is not a nothing burger. The market is looking very sick and there has been a lot of pain already. You are only looking at indexes propped up by mega caps, but many companies have already gotten haircuts by like 50%. There's no depth to the market at all.

Dude? Get your big boy pants on. It's going to be OK. We may drop 30% from the high, but thus is NORMAL. Maybe not since you've been in the market, but if you take the long view as all the smarter (than you) folks are suggesting you'll make money in the end. Just don't pull your money out and keep drip feeding. Or just stop putting money in because you don't really have the balls to be in.

Name the number of times the market has had experience with quantitative tightening. And tightening to roll off multiple trillions. I'll wait. Then tell me.again 'this is normal' with a straight face.

Sorry, you're not worth the response. Just do it your way.

Ahhhhh. The 'financial professional' is too scared to tell everyone the truth - and that's the fact that the market has virtually ZERO experience with quantitative tightening (except for only about one other time), especially with QT requiring trillions in roll off. What the financial professional doesn't tell you is that no financial models exist for QT, unlike how rate hikes can be priced into DCF models they finance clowns like to use for attempting to value companies and stocks. QT is basically going to be an unprecedented shock.

DP. You might be right, you might not. But time and time again in my life I’ve seen people panic, sell everything, and then either they sold near the bottom, or they were too scared to get back in when they need to. If my portfolio dips by 50% and takes years to recover I’ll be ok.

I learned my lessons about active management from decades of actively managed funds and accounts and watching my net worth lag the indices, all the time, every time.

Your tone is not helping your position at all.

+1
I think we have some experienced folks (like you) here and some novices, who need time to grow into investing. Emotional decisions are never good ones. So the name calling and emotional tone of PP really makes him/her sound immature and not credible. Oh well, live and learn.

DP. You're fighting your own straw men. No one has said "sell everything!" We're in that spot now where it's too late to sell, but it's also too early to buy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've been investing 10% of every paycheck + my 401k for the last 10 years in broad index funds. I don't plan on shifting until I start moving to bonds just before retirement. The only reason to do otherwise, would be if I was an investment professional myself. Which I'm not.

Isn't the strategy to be in a balanced fund at retirement? 60 equities/40 fixed income so that you can use the 4% (or similar) safe withdrawal rate.

If we have a year like we've had this year your bonds would have tanked 12%+!!

[Anonymous]

Long bonds down 20%. Crazy.

[Anonymous]

Sure we may have a down turn. Who cares? It will come back -- everyone is pointing out supposed new stuff on the bad side of the ledger. Let me point out the other side new item: we have tons of money. We are crazy rich as a whole country. There is lots of money on the sidelines that will have to be invested at some point. 401ks may benefit UMC and MC a little bit but they have created a ton of money that has to be invested. It may go to the sidelines but it has to come back. This buying demand will prevent any long term down turn.

[Anonymous]

Oops. GDP shrunk. 50 basis point raise is off the table. Only going to 25.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Aaaaaannd Google missed. MSFT did not post a strong ER with bullish guidance....if their call does not impress it is game over for the market.

This is going to get very ugly quick. Now the mega caps that make up the largest weighted portion of the indexes are going to get pounded into bone dust. Tesla just fell 11% in a day and makes up a huge portion of the index. This is going to be so brutal. We aren't even into sell in May and go away yet..oof.

LOL "game over". It's only brutal if you have a stupid portfolio populated with tech stocks.

you people panic so much...if you are panicking why are you invested?? The dow is down less than 10% YTD, S&P Down 12% and the NASDAQ is down 20%. if you are down more than 20% you clearly have no idea what you're doing. The NASDAQ is not "the market."

These types of declines are quite regular. Most investors just have a short term bias. Value stocks are holding up quite well. If you diversify just go back to bed and come back in a few months.

You are the dumb mindless type programmed to automatically buy the dip, because the fed was always there to save you over the last 14 years. The game is over because the Fed put no longer exists..so many idiots primed to buy any dip are going to get torched. The market has almost zero experience with quantitative tightening, so no, it really cannot be priced in easily as predictable rates hikes can that have models. Once QT happens it will also. completely upend the equity risk premium for owning stocks and.teillions will flow into bonds.

You are an idiot of you are oblivious to the lack of depth in this market. Once Apple, Tesla, Google, and Microsoft fall, all of the people that.mindlessly plug away investing into funds and ETFs that largely track the S and P 500.will get crushed.. There are tons of boomers now on the verge of retiring who may lose a huge amount of the retirement nest egg right before retiring.

Get it through your skull. There is no more fed put. There is QT.

LOL

I'm partner at a 6B investment firm whose made millions investing for others. But sure. I'll trust you and all your credentials. I speak with people like you all the time, fire them, then they crawl back a few years later because they have all their money in cash and missed the rebound.

I'll do my way. You be an irrational investor who let's their emotions dictate a long term investment plan.

Lol, big whoop. You're just like every other idiot on wall street who can only do groupthink and is too afraid to make any bold calls. Omg, you're such an investing genius over the last 14 years when all the stock market has ever done is go up because of an accommodative Fed. Every single person is a genius at investing when the market only ever goes up. Financial 'professionals' barely beat the market and charge an arm and a leg for it. They also have vested interest to tell everyone to stay the course and that everything is fine, because their entire livelihood depends on people staying in their overpriced funds where the managers can get their fees. It's gonna be entertaining watching fund managers destroy half their clients' wealth on paper, because don't you know? StOcKS OnLY EVeR Go Up!! even though the easy Fed money is gone.

you are a laughable person who clearly has no idea what they are talking about. I've never claimed to be an investment genius but you clearly think you are smarter than all of "wall street". Am I an investment professional who owns a very successful firm? Yes. I've seen hundreds of prospects like you and every single time their long term returns are very modest. Why? Because they act like a psychopaths any time the market drops 10%. They think they are smarter than the market, attempt to time inflection points, and miss out on a ton of growth due to their irrational views. Good luck!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Sure we may have a down turn. Who cares? It will come back -- everyone is pointing out supposed new stuff on the bad side of the ledger. Let me point out the other side new item: we have tons of money. We are crazy rich as a whole country. There is lots of money on the sidelines that will have to be invested at some point. 401ks may benefit UMC and MC a little bit but they have created a ton of money that has to be invested. It may go to the sidelines but it has to come back. This buying demand will prevent any long term down turn.

Yeah it always comes back until it doesn't. Tell Japanese investors it always comes back, because that's exactly where the US is headed. Propping up a whole bunch of zombie companies while the country is saddled with increasingly higher and higher debt burden. Japanese investors have only been buying the dip for the last 31 years, lol. US is increasingly becoming a weaker and weaker economy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Oops. GDP shrunk. 50 basis point raise is off the table. Only going to 25.

Wait until you see PCE #s

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Oops. GDP shrunk. 50 basis point raise is off the table. Only going to 25.

Wait until you see PCE #s

That's like saying "wait until your father gets home"....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've been investing 10% of every paycheck + my 401k for the last 10 years in broad index funds. I don't plan on shifting until I start moving to bonds just before retirement. The only reason to do otherwise, would be if I was an investment professional myself. Which I'm not.

Right? Same here. My investments are on autopilot from my paychecks and it's worked out great for me. Although I started working in 2008, so it's been mostly a great ride! I plan to stay the course in any case as that is the most rational thing to do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sure we may have a down turn. Who cares? It will come back -- everyone is pointing out supposed new stuff on the bad side of the ledger. Let me point out the other side new item: we have tons of money. We are crazy rich as a whole country. There is lots of money on the sidelines that will have to be invested at some point. 401ks may benefit UMC and MC a little bit but they have created a ton of money that has to be invested. It may go to the sidelines but it has to come back. This buying demand will prevent any long term down turn.

Yeah it always comes back until it doesn't. Tell Japanese investors it always comes back, because that's exactly where the US is headed. Propping up a whole bunch of zombie companies while the country is saddled with increasingly higher and higher debt burden. Japanese investors have only been buying the dip for the last 31 years, lol. US is increasingly becoming a weaker and weaker economy.

There is not the slightest evidence for any of your statements. The US remains the most dynamic Western economy, and has a robust cohort of immigrants and young people that drive innovation. There will certainly be a downturn, but there’s no evidence that it will be worse than 1982, 1992, 2001, or 2008.