I sound like nothing of the sort. I'm stating facts, namely, what ACTUALLY HAPPENED circa 1980-2008 when Alice Deal Junior High was not as heavily attended by households IB for Lafayette. You ready for this? Hang onto your drink: many of those 20015 households that took a pass on Deal c. 1980-2008 would self-identify as African-American! I know, right?! Telling the truth without editorial comment =/= racism. It is not irrational to postulate that if households are re-directed from 2020-23 Alice Deal to a different middle school that performs relatively worse on quantifiable metrics, it's quite possible that those households will again take a pass on their assigned middle school. What's past is prologue and all that. What has changed since 1980-2008: MCPS aren't a clearly superior product to DCPS any longer. Tuition for the usual suspect independent schools has increased so rapidly that it's now out of reach for most 2-earner families with multiple kids. They're not — and cannot — add seats, so admission pressure will not be relieved. Schools like St. John's are more difficult to gain admission. And of course, DC charters are an option that didn't exist for middle schools in 1980-2008 in a meaningful way. |
The "Eaton neighborhood" is not the same Venn circle as "the adults whose kids attend Eaton." Eaton still having a large population (39%) of kids coming from outside "the Eaton neighborhood." |
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Given how well Hardy is progressing, moving Eaton to Hardy seems like the right move, in retrospect. Hearst could be moved to Hardy, next, and while parents would squawk, they'd still have access to a good school.
I think it makes little sense, given logistics of the map, to move Lafayette away from Deal. Janney, LaFayette, and Murch are the most logical schools to go to Deal because of their proximity. But it makes even LESS sense for Bancroft and Shepherd to go there, as they're even farther away. Obviously, the only reasons Bancroft and Shepherd go there are for purposes of equity and politics. The most elegant solution would be to send Hearst to Hardy and Bancroft and Shepherd to the new Hines. But that won't happen except for Hearst, so the next best solution to the Deal/Wilson overcrowding problem would be to send the expanded Hardy to a new High School, which would also take on Francis-Stevens. But where's the real estate for it? |
+1. Unless private schools expand massively, an influx of applications would mean statistically a lower likelihood of acceptance. Also, not every family has $40K per child per year within the Lafayette boundary. A few will go private or charter, some will move in the early years of redistricting, and some will begrudgingly try it out. My crystal ball: The proportion of the latter will slowly grow year over year until a decade out, when Wells etc. is finally seen as an acceptable option. |
| I can’t tell who wants to kick Lafayette out more - Murch/Janey parents who just scream “I’m closer!” or Tacoma Park parents who think Lafayette kids will save Wells/Coolidge? |
| If Lafayette is zoned out of Deal, I would be surprised if they did not increase the OOB slots with the extra room. So it would be a win-win for DC to say that they have both reduced overcrowding and increased OOB access to Deal. |
| Honestly, if Ward 3 parents had any sense, they would collectively all try to lottery into Hardy. Many would get in and it would give Key and some Mann parents enough assurance to go as well. The school would flip in less than a year and would be superior or equal to Deal in no time. It would cure some Deal overcrowding and, most importantly, it would close the largest pipeline of OOB going to Wilson. It’s right there for the taking, but instead Ward 3 Net tilts at windmills like the old Hardy Building that will never happen in our lifetime. |
The old Duke Ellington track on Reservoir Road. It's still owned by DCPS and the site is actually bigger than the block DESA is currently located. Unfortunately, I think this Mayor has firmly put her foot down against any new by-right schools opening in Ward 3 and western parts of Ward 2. Her constituency won't stand for it, due to the racial optics and equity arguments. She has said in community meetings that she wants to focus on opening more all-city application schools. I think this is the only type of new school you will WoTP. Still, your proposal is an interesting one. There would definitely be a strong cohort for Hardy to feed to a brand new high school, if they included Hearst and Francis Stevens. However, the Hardy site is very small without much room at all for expansion. It's way smaller than Deal. I believe projections show that Hardy will hit their capacity in the next 2-3 years. So including any other elementary schools would require an expansion to Hardy. They could cannibalize the tennis courts with a couple trailers, but that's about it. -Burleith Family |
Hardy has already flipped; it's a quality place to be. Test scores not as high as Deal, but the trajectory is already there. The challenge remains that Hardy feeds into Wilson, and with a glut of elementary schools feeding into the similarly overcrowded Deal, Wilson is going to be a fire hazard soon, if it isn't already. |
It would “flip” to an acceptable level of white kids? |
Where is your information on this? If we're talking proximity, Hearst's boundary is 1/2 mile from Deal. |
Or you could convert Duke Ellington to a normal school. Problem solved. |
Because Bancroft and Shepherd, which are ridiculously far away from Deal, would stay. Bowser would love this equation because her constituents would love it. |
Exactly. DCPS would be just fine with this outcome and might in fact prefer it. WOTP parents can’t seem to understand that. |
| Every DCPS parent should watch today’s Council hearing on the FY20 DCPS budget. It is cause for tremendous concern. The Chancellor could not answer basic questions on their proposal. It looked like Mendelson’s head was going to explode. It’s like the Chancellor thought if he used the word “equity” 1000 times he’d skate right through. Chancellor does not appear up for the job... |