There is no housing bubble in the DC area so get over it

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Only someone in the upper income brackets can't see that there are some very real structural problems in incomes and growth.

COL is going up while real incomes remain stagnant or even fall. Study after study has shown it. Maybe some of the folks in DC region are insulated from this reality, but I know we feel it as a family making less than $150K.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:uh oh 15 year mortgage rates hit a low I guess DC housing IS DOOMED

http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/25/real_estate/mortgage-rate-record/index.html?iid=Lead

http://homes.yahoo.com/news/low-mortgage-interest-rates-masking-high-home-price-040055318.html

You're a fool if you only consider rates and not prices.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only someone in the upper income brackets can't see that there are some very real structural problems in incomes and growth.

COL is going up while real incomes remain stagnant or even fall. Study after study has shown it. Maybe some of the folks in DC region are insulated from this reality, but I know we feel it as a family making less than $150K.

+1

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I am typing on a tablet so yeah I mistyped...not misspelled.

Oh, ok, I see...so the medium changes whether or not something is a misspelling. At what point does that happen?

Pen and paper, misspelling.
Computer keyboard, misspelling?
Tablet keyboard, mistyping.

You wonder why people are finding it hard to take your claims of the primacy of education seriously?

People? Or you? I find it hard to take your claims seriously if you are suggesting that the validity of my arguments is completely discounted based on one spelling error. Typing, spelling, whatever. But you are not really suggesting that, are you? No, you just realized that I made substantial points and you don't have anything substantive to counter with. That's the way things generally happen in stupid internet argument world. There you go.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sorry a PP here. If we are middle class buyers who are able to afford to buy into an amazing school cluster and the house we buy has appraised higher than we bought at, I don't see how this makes us stupid. We had a ton for a down and low interest rates got us into a wonderful house in a beautiful neighborhood inside the beltway. We were looking to buy anyway so why not buy now instead of waiting? Serious question. The size is fine for us too, and we plan to stay very long term. Should we have waited or something? Why miss out on the lower interest rate?

There are certainly deals to be found out there. And if you don't care whether or not your home appreciates in value, then more power to you. I have a question for you though...how are local schools funded again?

I get this but the neighborhood we bought in has had amazing schools for ages. There is big money there. So unless you are suggesting that all of a sudden an amazing school cluster is going to go right down the tubes when it didn't sink an inch after the big bubble burst, then I don't get the danger. We certainly are aware that property taxes will rise, and while nobody wants to pay more taxes, that is something we will do eagerly since good schools are one of the biggest drivers of home values.

First off, the risk is called the "death spiral". Here's how it works...when incomes in an area remain stagnant or decline, house prices decline because fewer people are moving into the area for well-paying jobs.

Local taxes, which pay for schools (as you rightly noted, are a primary driver in an area's house value), are assessed on local home valuations. Lower prices, at the same tax rate, equals lower tax revenue. Lower tax revenue, equals lower funding for schools, less programs, less qualified teachers, etc.

Local taxes, as a percentage, get raised to recoup the loss.

People, as a whole, don't like paying taxes. This reduces the marketability of any given area over another, again, whether or not that's enough to dissuade them from moving is another point entirely. All other things being equal, home prices decline again.

Property taxes get raised.

Home prices decline again.

Property taxes get raised, again.

See the cycle?

The reason the DC area has been immune from this effect over the past decade is because the DMV benefits from Federal budgets more than any area in the country. The Federal government has the magical ability to make money appear out of thin air, via government debt and money-printing. However, this is getting a lot of press lately and getting a lot of calls to stop. Frankly, the DMV economy has been an anomaly over the past decade because of these government deficits, once you throw that out the window...suddenly things get a LOT more fair to the rest of the country really quick, wanna bet on which way that's gonna turn out for the local economy that's already been in this position for a little under a decade?

sO uEmploYment MusT be VerY HIGH in tHe Dc Area and Low elesWHERe?

Not at all. Unemployment has remained relatively stable over the past year.

What we're not seeing however is job GROWTH and/or income GROWTH. That's the key driver, without that growth, then there is no fundamental reason for this housing rally to be supported.

I wonder if you expressed the same sentiment back in the early 2000's? Refute any of the points made above.

Noone has, as of yet, been able to express what in the local DC economy has improved over the past year. Feel free to offer up an idea if you have one.

The economy is humming along fine and confidence in the economy is better as well as the restrictions on loans are easing, that is what happened. Take your doom and gloom to your next losing bidding war.

Are you serious?

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases-test/marylanddc-manufacturing-jobs-decline-23-over-past-year-162579106.html

How about this one...?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/emsi/2013/04/02/states-that-lead-and-lag-in-job-growth-and-competitiveness/

Or how about this one...?

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/03/26/consumers-confidence-in-the-economy-falls-in-march/

Care to bring forward some of your sources for your sentiments? Actual numbers would be appreciated.

Even better for DC. If you haven't figured it out if the economy sinks people come to DC for jobs.

That's only because the federal government ran up deficit after deficit in order to help prop up the aggregate demand in the economy with ever increasing budgets and spending. Take that away and that dynamic changes entirely.

http://www.cato.org/blog/federal-spending-trend

Do you honestly believe that the federal budget can grow at the pace we saw over the past decade for the years ahead?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I am typing on a tablet so yeah I mistyped...not misspelled.

Oh, ok, I see...so the medium changes whether or not something is a misspelling. At what point does that happen?

Pen and paper, misspelling.
Computer keyboard, misspelling?
Tablet keyboard, mistyping.

You wonder why people are finding it hard to take your claims of the primacy of education seriously?

People? Or you? I find it hard to take your claims seriously if you are suggesting that the validity of my arguments is completely discounted based on one spelling error. Typing, spelling, whatever. But you are not really suggesting that, are you? No, you just realized that I made substantial points and you don't have anything substantive to counter with. That's the way things generally happen in stupid internet argument world. There you go.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:uh oh 15 year mortgage rates hit a low I guess DC housing IS DOOMED

http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/25/real_estate/mortgage-rate-record/index.html?iid=Lead

http://homes.yahoo.com/news/low-mortgage-interest-rates-masking-high-home-price-040055318.html

You're a fool if you only consider rates and not prices.

DC's stats look pretty good compared to New York City, California etc... We're in good shape cool!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sorry a PP here. If we are middle class buyers who are able to afford to buy into an amazing school cluster and the house we buy has appraised higher than we bought at, I don't see how this makes us stupid. We had a ton for a down and low interest rates got us into a wonderful house in a beautiful neighborhood inside the beltway. We were looking to buy anyway so why not buy now instead of waiting? Serious question. The size is fine for us too, and we plan to stay very long term. Should we have waited or something? Why miss out on the lower interest rate?

There are certainly deals to be found out there. And if you don't care whether or not your home appreciates in value, then more power to you. I have a question for you though...how are local schools funded again?

I get this but the neighborhood we bought in has had amazing schools for ages. There is big money there. So unless you are suggesting that all of a sudden an amazing school cluster is going to go right down the tubes when it didn't sink an inch after the big bubble burst, then I don't get the danger. We certainly are aware that property taxes will rise, and while nobody wants to pay more taxes, that is something we will do eagerly since good schools are one of the biggest drivers of home values.

First off, the risk is called the "death spiral". Here's how it works...when incomes in an area remain stagnant or decline, house prices decline because fewer people are moving into the area for well-paying jobs.

Local taxes, which pay for schools (as you rightly noted, are a primary driver in an area's house value), are assessed on local home valuations. Lower prices, at the same tax rate, equals lower tax revenue. Lower tax revenue, equals lower funding for schools, less programs, less qualified teachers, etc.

Local taxes, as a percentage, get raised to recoup the loss.

People, as a whole, don't like paying taxes. This reduces the marketability of any given area over another, again, whether or not that's enough to dissuade them from moving is another point entirely. All other things being equal, home prices decline again.

Property taxes get raised.

Home prices decline again.

Property taxes get raised, again.

See the cycle?

The reason the DC area has been immune from this effect over the past decade is because the DMV benefits from Federal budgets more than any area in the country. The Federal government has the magical ability to make money appear out of thin air, via government debt and money-printing. However, this is getting a lot of press lately and getting a lot of calls to stop. Frankly, the DMV economy has been an anomaly over the past decade because of these government deficits, once you throw that out the window...suddenly things get a LOT more fair to the rest of the country really quick, wanna bet on which way that's gonna turn out for the local economy that's already been in this position for a little under a decade?

sO uEmploYment MusT be VerY HIGH in tHe Dc Area and Low elesWHERe?

Not at all. Unemployment has remained relatively stable over the past year.

What we're not seeing however is job GROWTH and/or income GROWTH. That's the key driver, without that growth, then there is no fundamental reason for this housing rally to be supported.

I wonder if you expressed the same sentiment back in the early 2000's? Refute any of the points made above.

Noone has, as of yet, been able to express what in the local DC economy has improved over the past year. Feel free to offer up an idea if you have one.

The economy is humming along fine and confidence in the economy is better as well as the restrictions on loans are easing, that is what happened. Take your doom and gloom to your next losing bidding war.

Are you serious?

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases-test/marylanddc-manufacturing-jobs-decline-23-over-past-year-162579106.html

How about this one...?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/emsi/2013/04/02/states-that-lead-and-lag-in-job-growth-and-competitiveness/

Or how about this one...?

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/03/26/consumers-confidence-in-the-economy-falls-in-march/

Care to bring forward some of your sources for your sentiments? Actual numbers would be appreciated.

Even better for DC. If you haven't figured it out if the economy sinks people come to DC for jobs.

That's only because the federal government ran up deficit after deficit in order to help prop up the aggregate demand in the economy with ever increasing budgets and spending. Take that away and that dynamic changes entirely.

http://www.cato.org/blog/federal-spending-trend

Do you honestly believe that the federal budget can grow at the pace we saw over the past decade for the years ahead?

Well the economy is improving so the government has backed off.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:uh oh 15 year mortgage rates hit a low I guess DC housing IS DOOMED

http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/25/real_estate/mortgage-rate-record/index.html?iid=Lead

http://homes.yahoo.com/news/low-mortgage-interest-rates-masking-high-home-price-040055318.html

You're a fool if you only consider rates and not prices.

DC's stats look pretty good compared to New York City, California etc... We're in good shape cool!

http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2013/04/the-2013-real-estate-bubble.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sorry a PP here. If we are middle class buyers who are able to afford to buy into an amazing school cluster and the house we buy has appraised higher than we bought at, I don't see how this makes us stupid. We had a ton for a down and low interest rates got us into a wonderful house in a beautiful neighborhood inside the beltway. We were looking to buy anyway so why not buy now instead of waiting? Serious question. The size is fine for us too, and we plan to stay very long term. Should we have waited or something? Why miss out on the lower interest rate?

There are certainly deals to be found out there. And if you don't care whether or not your home appreciates in value, then more power to you. I have a question for you though...how are local schools funded again?

I get this but the neighborhood we bought in has had amazing schools for ages. There is big money there. So unless you are suggesting that all of a sudden an amazing school cluster is going to go right down the tubes when it didn't sink an inch after the big bubble burst, then I don't get the danger. We certainly are aware that property taxes will rise, and while nobody wants to pay more taxes, that is something we will do eagerly since good schools are one of the biggest drivers of home values.

First off, the risk is called the "death spiral". Here's how it works...when incomes in an area remain stagnant or decline, house prices decline because fewer people are moving into the area for well-paying jobs.

Local taxes, which pay for schools (as you rightly noted, are a primary driver in an area's house value), are assessed on local home valuations. Lower prices, at the same tax rate, equals lower tax revenue. Lower tax revenue, equals lower funding for schools, less programs, less qualified teachers, etc.

Local taxes, as a percentage, get raised to recoup the loss.

People, as a whole, don't like paying taxes. This reduces the marketability of any given area over another, again, whether or not that's enough to dissuade them from moving is another point entirely. All other things being equal, home prices decline again.

Property taxes get raised.

Home prices decline again.

Property taxes get raised, again.

See the cycle?

The reason the DC area has been immune from this effect over the past decade is because the DMV benefits from Federal budgets more than any area in the country. The Federal government has the magical ability to make money appear out of thin air, via government debt and money-printing. However, this is getting a lot of press lately and getting a lot of calls to stop. Frankly, the DMV economy has been an anomaly over the past decade because of these government deficits, once you throw that out the window...suddenly things get a LOT more fair to the rest of the country really quick, wanna bet on which way that's gonna turn out for the local economy that's already been in this position for a little under a decade?

sO uEmploYment MusT be VerY HIGH in tHe Dc Area and Low elesWHERe?

Not at all. Unemployment has remained relatively stable over the past year.

What we're not seeing however is job GROWTH and/or income GROWTH. That's the key driver, without that growth, then there is no fundamental reason for this housing rally to be supported.

I wonder if you expressed the same sentiment back in the early 2000's? Refute any of the points made above.

Noone has, as of yet, been able to express what in the local DC economy has improved over the past year. Feel free to offer up an idea if you have one.

The economy is humming along fine and confidence in the economy is better as well as the restrictions on loans are easing, that is what happened. Take your doom and gloom to your next losing bidding war.

Are you serious?

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases-test/marylanddc-manufacturing-jobs-decline-23-over-past-year-162579106.html

How about this one...?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/emsi/2013/04/02/states-that-lead-and-lag-in-job-growth-and-competitiveness/

Or how about this one...?

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/03/26/consumers-confidence-in-the-economy-falls-in-march/

Care to bring forward some of your sources for your sentiments? Actual numbers would be appreciated.

Even better for DC. If you haven't figured it out if the economy sinks people come to DC for jobs.

That's only because the federal government ran up deficit after deficit in order to help prop up the aggregate demand in the economy with ever increasing budgets and spending. Take that away and that dynamic changes entirely.

http://www.cato.org/blog/federal-spending-trend

Do you honestly believe that the federal budget can grow at the pace we saw over the past decade for the years ahead?

Well the economy is improving so the government has backed off.

Which would only drive jobs away from DC.

Also, what sources are you using in your assertion that the economy has improved?

[Anonymous]

Federal government hiring was shedding jobs last month but the private sector was hiring 20 x that amount.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Federal government hiring was shedding jobs last month but the private sector was hiring 20 x that amount.

What industry in private sector and what jobs? Service sector and service jobs? Maybe medical/healthcare? I don't know of any particular "industry" in DC area, there

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Federal government hiring was shedding jobs last month but the private sector was hiring 20 x that amount.

Source please?

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/whos-announced-most-job-cuts-uncle-sam-1C7100784

"Even if you don’t want to work for the Post Office or Defense Department, the prospect of making a career with the federal government may be waning. The Labor Department projects that federal government employment will shrink by 372,000 jobs by 2020."

Please elaborate on the private sector in the DC area that's hiring 7.5 million jobs over the next 7 years?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Federal government hiring was shedding jobs last month but the private sector was hiring 20 x that amount.

I call BS without a reputable source.

BTW, replacing high paying federal government and government contracting jobs with low paying service industry and construction jobs is not a 1:1 job transfer.

[Anonymous]

http://www.aikenstandard.com/article/20130426/AIK0106/130429651/1013/us-applications-for-unemployment-aid-drop-to-339k